Does the Atlantic Coast Conference still house a legit playoff contender?

By Rich Cirminiello | @RichCirminiello

Now that Florida State is expected to take a step in reverse following back-to-back perfect regular seasons, the road to Charlotte, site of the annual ACC title game, isn’t quite as obvious as a year ago. That’s good for the other 13 members, but potentially troubling for the conference as a whole.

The ACC liked when the Noles carried its banner. The program helped give a league with a football inferiority complex a national identity, a national champ and a Heisman winner over the past two seasons. Now what? No, Florida State isn’t returning to the back end of the Bobby Bowden era. Hardly. It still has more talent than anyone in the league. But FSU repeatedly flashed vulnerabilities last fall, and Jameis Winston is no longer around to bail the team out. While Everett Golson was a timely pick-up, he’ll never be as clutch as Winston.

With the door to the ACC penthouse ajar, Clemson is most likely to bust on through. The Tigers are similar to the Seminoles; uber-talented, yet holes that need to be filled, especially along both lines of scrimmage. Clemson does boast a not-so-secret weapon, sophomore Deshaun Watson, the best of a bumper crop of gifted quarterbacks in the league.

If anyone can loosen the grip Florida State and Clemson have on the Atlantic Division’s top two spots, it’ll be Louisville. Bobby Petrino continues to amass blue-chip talent, including a gaggle of high-profile transfers poised to make an immediate splash. With consistency from quarterback, this could be a very dangerous squad. NC State falls into the upstart category as well, though there are too many weak areas to expect higher than fourth place in the division.

After the Pack, there’ll be jockeying for bowl eligibility. Boston College is just scrappy and well-coached enough to reach .500 for a third year in a row under Steve Addazio. Wake Forest and Syracuse, on the other hand, figure to be on the outside looking in. However, the Demon Deacons will be improved in all areas, even if it’s not always reflected in the standings.

The SEC West has nothing on the ACC Coastal, at least in terms of parity. Ever since Virginia Tech drifted back to the pack, the Coastal became a jump ball, which was surprisingly won by Georgia Tech in 2014. The Yellow Jackets have as good a chance as anyone of coming out on top, provided they fix the pass defense and develop skill players to complement QB Justin Thomas.

Talent isn’t an issue for the Hokies. They’ve got as much, if not more, as anyone in the Coastal, especially on defense. Offensive execution, though, has been crushing this program for the past three seasons. If Va Tech is going to restore the glory one more time for Frank Beamer, the line has to block better and QB Michael Brewer must reduce his number of costly mistakes.

There’s not a ton separating Pitt, Carolina, Duke and Miami, each of whom has enough of the right parts to be a surprise Coastal contender. And enough shortcomings to be fighting for bowl eligibility in November. The Panthers bring the star power with RB James Conner and WR Tyler Boyd. The Heels need a defense to match the offensive attack. The Canes must be more than just budding QB Brad Kaaya. And the Blue Devils just want to avoid the injury bug.

Virginia doesn’t figure to threaten in the divisional race, despite a sharp uptick in recruiting. The storyline will once again revolve around the future of head coach Mike London, who’s spent almost all of his nine lives in Charlottesville.

Florida State remains the class of the ACC. The gap between the Noles and the rest of the league, though, is slightly narrowing. In fact, it was tightening last season, but Winston engineered the requisite escapes to bring a third straight league crown to Tallahassee. The title chases in both divisions will be even more intriguing in 2015, but it could come at the expense of a seat at the playoff table on New Year’s Eve.

Team That’ll Surprise
Louisville – There are no doubt holes to be filled, especially at the line of scrimmage. But those banking on a Cardinal collapse in 2015 fail to appreciate just how much talent this program is adding on transfers alone. OLB Devonte Fields (TCU), S Josh Harvey-Clemons and CB Shaq Wiggins (Georgia), and receivers Ja’Quay Savage (Texas A&M) and Jamari Staples (UAB) are essentially free agent additions to a team that won nine games in its ACC debut. Plus, the D ought to be stifling, and Bobby Petrino gets a second full year with his stable of quarterbacks, namely up-and-coming sophomore Reggie Bonnafon. Despite talk of a rebuild, Louisville isn’t going anywhere.

Team That’ll Disappoint
Georgia Tech – The Yellow Jackets are the defending Coastal Division champ and the favorite to win the lesser half of the ACC for a second straight year. However, there’s plenty of work to be done before this team fulfills lofty expectations. The good news on the Flats is that Justin Thomas is back to conduct the offense. The bad? There’s going to be a serious shortage of proven playmakers to support Thomas, and the defense remains a glaring question mark. Plus, Tech must face Florida State and Clemson out of the Atlantic. And it’s unaccustomed to being the hunted, so it’ll be interesting to see how it handles a loftier than normal bar entering 2015.

Game of the Year …
Florida State at Clemson, Nov. 7 –Will the ACC be left out of the playoff picture this fall? The annual showdown between the league’s premier teams will provide plenty of answers. The Tigers squandered a lead in last year’s meeting, despite the suspension of Seminole QB Jameis Winston. However, that was also before the seal was fully broken on Clemson QB Deshaun Watson. This November’s matchup will be a referendum on who did a better job of retooling during the offseason. The Noles want to get back to the playoff, but they must first get past Clemson and capture a fourth straight Atlantic Division.

5 Big-Time Players Who Deserve a Bigger Spotlight …
1. DE Dadi Nicolas, Sr. Virginia Tech
2. QB Justin Thomas, Jr. Georgia Tech
3. S Jeremy Cash, Sr. Duke
4. WR Mike Williams, Jr. Clemson
5. OT Roderick Johnson, Soph. Florida State

Coach on the Hot Seat
Mike London, Virginia – It was difficult justifying a sixth season for London in C’ville. It’ll be downright impossible lobbying for a seventh if he can’t pilot the Cavaliers above the .500 mark in 2015. While there’s something to be said for stability and continuity within a program, it’s also hard to ignore the numbers. Four losing seasons in five years, along with an 11-29 ACC mark, just jump off London’s bio as if written in a bold, exaggerated font. Yes, he can recruit as well as any UVa coach in recent history. However, if London can’t mold the improved talent pool into a winning production, this absolutely will be the final straw. Well, probably the finally straw. Carolina’s Larry Fedora, Miami’s Al Golden and Virginia Tech’s Frank Beamer really need to raise the bar in 2015 as well.

5 Non-Conference Games the ACC had better take very, very seriously
1. Miami at Cincinnati, Oct. 1
2. Virginia Tech at East Carolina, Sept. 26
3. Houston at Louisville, Sept. 12
4. Northern Illinois at Boston College, Sept. 26

5. Duke at Tulane, Sept. 3

Bold Statements
– The ACC will send a representative to the playoffs … sort of. Notre Dame will earn a spot, but the conference champion, Florida State, will not.

– Nick Schuessler will finish—and start—a game for Clemson. QB Deshaun Watson is an emerging star, but durability issues will persist, especially now that LT Isaiah Battle left for the supplemental draft.

– The rebuilt Florida State O-line will block beyond expectations, with Kareem Are, Chad Mavety and Wilson Bell commanding attention from pro scouts.

– Virginia Tech will have a historically nasty D, leading the country in sacks and non-offensive touchdowns.

– Still, the Hokies will lose to someone they shouldn’t, fueling the notion that Frank Beamer may never again get back on top of the ACC.

– One-time change-of-pace Duke QB Thomas Sirk will flourish as the full-time successor to Anthony Boone.

– The Noles will again struggle to mount a consistent pass rush, heaping immense pressure on coordinator Charles Kelly as the season unfolds.

– The Clemson D will regroup faster than expected around DE Shaq Lawson, CB Mackensie Alexander, S Jayron Kearse and LB Ben Boulware, earning coordinator Brent Venables a head coaching gig.

– Jabari Hunt-Days will emerge like a monster from last year’s academic suspension, helping give Georgia Tech one of the league’s fiercest defensive lines.

– Pitt QB Chad Voytik will shine as the least known member of the Panther offensive trio that includes all-star RB James Conner and WR Tyler Boyd.

– Despite the loss of seven starters, Louisville will rank among the nation’s Top 25 defenses for the sixth year in a row.

– NC State QB Jacoby Brissett’s push up NFL Draft boards will be threatened by an offensive line that struggles to protect and is likely to start a rookie at left tackle.

– New defensive coordinator Gene Chizik will make a difference in Chapel Hill, but not enough to get Carolina over the hump. Talent on this team remains decidedly more abundant on the offensive side of the ball.

– Gus Edwards—not Joseph Yearby—will be Miami’s most reliable back as the team looks to replace Duke Johnson.

– Virginia will finally fire Mike London, severing ties with one of the most charmed and fortunate head coaches this century. London’s successor will step into a stocked cupboard and a manageable situation.

– Five new starting O-linemen won’t keep BC from running the ball with authority. A young starting quarterback, though, will allow teams to flood the box to stop Jon Hilliman and Myles Willis.

– Wake Forest will lead the ACC in record against the spread. But a frustrating number of close losses will keep the improving Deacons out of the postseason.

5 Best Pro Prospects
1. DB Jalen Ramsey, Jr. Florida State
2. CB Kendall Fuller, Jr. Virginia Tech
3. WR Tyler Boyd, Jr. Pittsburgh
4. OG Landon Turner, Sr. North Carolina
5. DE Shaq Lawson, Jr. Clemson

5 Biggest Shoes to Fill
1. QB Everett Golson for Jameis Winston, Florida State
2. DE Shaq Lawson for Vic Beasley, Clemson
3. LB Raphael Kirby for Denzel Perryman, Miami
4. LB Ben Boulware for Stephone Anthony, Clemson
5. WR Ja’Quay Savage for DeVante Parker, Louisville