2015 CFB Preview – Indiana


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For the love of all that’s right and just, Indiana. Six wins. Get there already.

By Pete Fiutak | @PeteFiutak

Last year wasn’t fair. The Indiana defense is always going to be the Indiana defense – the program is destined to never be anything more than decent on that side of the ball – so if the offense isn’t rocking and rolling, bad things are going to happen.

The offense had an NFL-caliber running back in Tevin Coleman coming up with a special year, but it went from having a slew of talented quarterback options to dealing with a disaster after transfers and the loss of bomber Nate Sudfeld to injury. So all of a sudden, one of the Big Ten’s dangerous attacks that no one wanted to face turned into Coleman and an attempt to not have to deal with the forward pass.

So now in the fifth year under head coach Kevin Wilson, and after a relative free pass due to Sudfeld’s injury last season, all the work, all the building, and all the hope has to come together into at least a six win campaign.

Wilson was dead-on right when he took over the impossible gig in 2011 – the program didn’t have the players to compete at a Big Ten level. The recruiting classes haven’t really changed that, and the schemes haven’t been dangerous enough to be a curveball that good teams can’t hit on the right day, so Indiana has been Indiana, and it’s going to take something a bit wacky to be anything more in, one of the nastiest divisions in college football.

The Hoosiers haven’t had a winning season since 1997 – that was the only once since 1994 – so it’s not like the expectations are through the roof for Wilson. But he’s still trying to change the culture and he’s still trying to find the right scheme and the right fit to work to make the program something more than a mere speedbump.

With Sudfeld back, the passing game won’t be horrific and there should be the occasional big play down the field – something that seemed to be missing over the final two months of last season. Coleman might be gone, but UAB transfer Jordan Howard is a strong veteran who should be a lock for 1,000 yards if he can stay healthy, and there’s just enough upside on the O line to expect this to be the best group yet under Wilson.

The defense that was supposed to start to come together last year – and, of course, didn’t – has a few nice parts to work around, even if it lacks the overall depth, skill and talent to compete with the Big Ten big boys. Indiana is always going to give up around 30 points a game – it just will – but the warp-speed offense might be in place this year to start scoring around 31.

It doesn’t have to be pretty. It doesn’t have to be a national breakout year, and it doesn’t have to be a thing. It just has to be a year with six wins. Is that really so hard?

For Indiana, yes, it is.

What to watch for on offense: QB Nate Sudfeld will mean everything. In 2013, Indiana ran an offense that tried to make the Oregon attack look like it was operating in mud. While that might have been a deathblow to the team overall – the defense never, ever caught its breath – at least it produced some big numbers with three quarterbacks combining to throw for 3,680 yards and 36 touchdowns with 14 picks. Last year, Sudfeld appeared ready to get the offense rolling over the first five games, but he got hurt against Iowa and Indiana football all but gave up on throwing the forward pass the rest of the way. Sudfeld appears to be ready to be the leader of the offense again, and with that, the coaching staff can start to do what it wants to. It’s not extreme to call him the most valuable player in the Big Ten in a literal sense, and as long as he’s upright, the IU attack will look different.

What to watch for on defense: A funny thing happened to the Indiana Hoosiers as they had to slow things down a wee bit last year – the defense wasn’t as gassed and was able to get off the field. The time of possession was still skewed greatly in the other direction, but with more of a running game and less emphasis on hurry-hurry-HURRY three-and-out series, the D was able to come up with more third down stops. IU allowed teams to convert a whopping 46.7% of the time on third downs in 2013, but last year, especially after the O had to lean more on Tevin Coleman, the defense got a little bit more of a real time break, and it showed holding offenses to a 37% conversion rate on third downs. There were times when the defense didn’t quite work, but it did a far, far better job. As long as the third down defense is okay, for this team it should mean the difference between allowing 35 points per game and around 30.

The team will be far better if … the defense can keep teams out of the red zone. It’s hard enough for Indiana to keep points off the board, but the last thing it needs is to make things harder on itself. There weren’t a ton of close games last season, but four were decided by seven points or fewer with the Hoosiers losing two of them – that’s the difference between 6-6 and 4-8. Last season, opponents scored a whopping 95.5% of the time when they got inside the 20. Ohio State came up empty once and Penn State failed on a trip – that was it. On the year, Indiana was scored on 43-of-45 times in the red zone. At the very least, if the D can stiffen up a bit more and keep teams to field goals instead of touchdowns – allowing six points 60% of the time – that could make a huge difference.

The schedule: The Hoosiers gets a few games against Southern Illinois and FIU to gear up for what’s certain to be a shootout against WKU. If IU is hoping for any sort of a good season, it has to beat Wake Forest on the road.
– Starting out the Big Ten season against Ohio State and with road games at Penn State and Michigan State before November will be rough.
– There can’t be too much complaining with just three road games in the first ten dates. Going to Maryland and Purdue over the final two games isn’t all that bad.
– Missing Wisconsin, Nebraska and Minnesota from the West is a huge plus – Iowa and going to Purdue isn’t all that bad.
– WATCH OUT FOR … Rutgers at home. It’s a game IU might need to win, and coming in between the road games at Penn State and Michigan State, and after facing Ohio State, it might be an 0-4 Big Ten start with a loss to the Scarlet Knights.

What You Need To Know About The Offense: After looking ready to take off and blow up, the offense had a shockingly awful year when QB Nate Sudfeld got hurt. Tevin Coleman did his part with a 2,036-yard season, but it wasn’t nearly enough to overcome a miserable passing attack. Sudfeld is back, UAB transfer Jordan Howard is taking over for Coleman, and with a good, big line up front, all of a sudden, IU should bounce back and become dangerous again. Some receiving weapons have to emerge, and Sudfeld has to stay in one piece, but expect a warp speed pace and lots of explosion.

What You Need To Know About The Defense: The move to the 3-4 last season seemed to work a bit better. The Hoosiers aren’t going to be a brick wall defensively, but there are building blocks to get excited about with a good combination of Darius Latham and Nate Hoff up front to work around and anchor more against the run. There are plenty of opportunities at linebacker, and with T.J. Simmons back in the middle and a rising star in Tegray Scales ready to do more, there are plenty of options to work around with. Key defensive backs Mark Murphy and Tim Bennett are gone, but Antonio Allen should be one of the Big Ten’s better safeties. There still needs to be more of a pass rush and far more key stops in the red zone, but the D won’t be totally miserable – that might be enough to get by if the offense does what it’s supposed to.

Best offensive player: Senior QB Nate Sudfeld. It’s not like he’s Tom Brady, but he’s one of the most effective passers in the history of Indiana football and is the key to making the offense go. Able to come up with a huge win over eventual SEC East champions Missouri, he has the experience and poise to be the difference in at least two games this season just because he’s the best offensive playmaker on the roster. He doesn’t have Tevin Coleman to hand off to, and his receiving corps isn’t anything special, but he’s the type of passer who should make everyone around him better.

Best defensive player: Junior S Antonio Allen. The team’s leading tackler, it’s a bad thing he had to make so many stops, but he’s reliable enough to be able to clean up the messes left by the front seven. A good, sound hitter, he’s always around the ball and he’s among the Big Ten’s most consistent tacklers. Well past the torn ACL that knocked him out as a freshman, he should be even more of a leader and more of a statistical star for a defense that desperately needs both.

Key player to a successful season: Sophomore WR J-Shun Harris II. All 11 players on defense are among the real keys to the season, but IU is going to have to – to go cliché – outscore everyone it has to deal with. That means the passing game has to come back around, and with Sudfeld back, that means the receivers have to help the cause. Leading targets Shane Wynn and Nick Stoner are done, but Harris showed the promise last year to become a possible No. 1 target after catching 18 passes for 168 yards and two scores as a true freshman. A dangerous kick returner, he’s ultra-quick with good deep speed, but he’s not all that huge at just 5-8 and 170 pounds. He’ll have to play big.

The season will be a success if … Indiana wins six games. It all depends on health and a little bit of luck at some key spots, but had Nate Sudfeld stayed in one piece last season, the 2014 team probably would’ve gotten there. Beating Southern Illinois, FIU and WKU at home to start the season is a must, beating Purdue in the season finale isn’t asking a lot, and coming up with two wins out of three home games against Rutgers, Iowa and Michigan would be nice. If that doesn’t happen, beating Wake Forest on the road is possible, and Maryland and Penn State aren’t brutal road games. It’ll take a few upsets, but IU can get to a bowl.

Key game: Oct. 17 vs. Rutgers. IU was deep in the midst of its freefall last year when it got tagged by the Scarlet Knights in a 45-23 loss on the road. This time around, it’s a home game in the middle of the season sandwiched between road dates at Penn State and Michigan State. If the Hoosiers can start out 3-0, and if they can maybe get by Wake Forest, there’s a chance to start out 5-2 with a win over Rutgers. Lose this, and it could require a minor miracle to get to a bowl game.

2014 Fun Stats:
– Passing Touchdowns: Opponents 24 – Indiana 7
– Fumbles: Indiana 20 (lost 10) – Opponents 9 (lost 4)
– Penalties: Indiana 78 for 713 yards – Opponents 56 for 494 yards

Players You Need To Know

1. QB Nate Sudfeld, Sr.

Sudfeld won the battle with Tre Roberson for the starting quarterback job last year, Roberson left, Sudfeld got hurt in the middle of the season, and the team fell apart. Before injuring his shoulder, Sudfeld completing 61% of his passes for 1,151 yards and six touchdowns with three picks, highlighted by a 252-yard day in the win over Missouri, and with a 23-of-29 performance for 230 yards and three scores against North Texas. Now he’s back, healthy, and with the potential to be one of the Big Ten’s most important quarterbacks. While he can’t move, at 6-5 and 240 pounds he’s the big, strong passer the coaching staff wants. When he’s on and in a rhythm, he’s deadly.

2. RB Jordan Howard, Sr.
UAB lost a football program, but Indiana gained a very, very good running back. The 6-1, 225-pound Conference USA all-star ran for a program-best 1,587 yards and 13 touchdowns, closing out the team’s era with 262 yards and a score in the win over Southern Miss a week after running 39 times for 168 yards and two scores against Marshall. With all the wear and tear, though – carrying the ball 306 times and catching nine passes – he’s now hurt with an elbow injury. Ready to roll this fall, he’s the type of workhorse who can balance out the offense. He’s not going to be Tevin Coleman in terms of breaking off big play after big play, and he’s not going to catch the ball, but he can average five yards per crack and be a steadying force.

3. OG Dan Feeney, Jr.
With an excellent blend of athleticism and strength for a right guard, the 6-4, 305-pound all-star is light on his feet and excellent in pass protection. It took a while to get back from a foot injury that cost him the 2013 season, but he came back terrific as the team’s most consistent blocker. While he can be used as a tackle, he might be too valuable at guard to move.

4. OT Jason Spriggs, Sr.

One of the team’s best linemen over the last few seasons, the one-time Freshman All-American has 6-7, 305-pound size and the frame that’s impossible to work around. A skinny prospect, he bulked up over the years to get to his current weight, and he can still move without much of a problem – he’s like a big tight end working at tackle. While he took a wee step back last season after getting hurt in the middle of the year, but he’s still very reliable and dependable.

5. LB T.J. Simmons, Jr.
The team’s second-leading tackler built off a great freshman season to make 72 stops with two sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss. The 6-0, 233-pound Florida native has good size and gets around the ball well, making 13 tackles against Bowling Green and with the quickness to get into the backfield more. Great for the middle, now he should be even more of a leader after his first two years as one of the team’s top defensive players. While he’ll hit everything that comes his way, he has to be more disruptive and come up with even more big pops as a tone-setter.

6. LB Tegray Scales, Soph.
While he spent last year as a backup on the inside, at 6-0 and 220 pounds, he’s built better for the outside. With 46 tackles, two sacks and three picks, he had a great freshman season showing off the promise and potential to be something special. This offseason he took his game up a few notches with more decisive plays and more attacking. While he’s tough for his size, his game will be about speed and athleticism – expect him to be one of the rising stars this year.

7. DT Darius Lathan, Jr.
The Hoosiers have needed better interior presence for years, and the 6-5, 305-pound junior has seen enough playing time and experience over the last two seasons to grow into a bigger factor. He made 26 tackles and only came up with 1.5 sacks, but he’s active, takes up space, and is okay as long as he isn’t getting beaten on.

8. DT Nate Hoff, Soph.
There’s plenty of promise and hope after coming up with a Freshman All-America first season making 29 tackles with 3.5 sacks and 8.5 tackles for loss on the nose. A strong mauler, the 6-2, 300-pounder might be short, but he gets good leverage and is great at getting off the ball and behind the line. Ridiculously strong, he’s built to be an anchor and won’t often be moved off his base. If he can emerge into even more of a force on the inside, all of a sudden the defense will look and play far differently.

9. S Chase Dutra, Soph.
After spending last year working behind Mark Murphy, the 6-1, 205-pound sophomore appears to be ready to become one of the team’s top tacklers and key defenders. He only came up with one start, but he saw plenty of action throughout the season making 34 tackles and doing a terrific job in the open field. Good when the ball is in the air, he came up with three picks and showed a good nose for the ball. Expect him to be one of the team’s top tacklers – and a leader in broken up passes – over the next three seasons.

10. WR J-Shun Harris II, Soph.
The smallish, shifty target should turn into one of Nate Sudfeld’s favorite guys now that the passing attack has improved. The 5-8, 170-pounder caught 18 passes for 168 yards and two scores, but he’s too fast and too good not to get more involved as a runner, too.

Head Coach: Kevin Wilson
5th year: 14-34
17th year overall: 91-102
Schedule
Sept. 5 Southern Illinois
Sept. 12 FIU
Sept. 19 WKU
Sept. 26 at Wake Forest
Oct. 3 Ohio State
Oct. 10 at Penn State
Oct. 17 Rutgers
Oct. 24 at Michigan State
Oct. 31 OPEN DATE
Nov. 7 Iowa
Nov. 14 Michigan
Nov. 21 at Maryland
Nov. 28 at Purdue
Ten Best Indiana Players
1. QB Nate Sudfeld, Sr.
2. RB Jordan Howard, Sr.
3. OG DAN FEENEY, JR.
4. OT JASON SPRIGGS, SR.
5. LB T.J. SIMMONS, JR.
6. LB TEGRAY SCALES, SOPH.
7. DT DARIUS LATHAN, JR.
8. DT NATE HOFF, SOPH.
9. S CHASE DUTRA, SOPH. 
10. WR J-Shun Harris II, Soph.