2015 CFB Preview – Ole Miss


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If it’s possible to have a disappointing success of a college football season, Ole Miss just pulled it off.

By Pete Fiutak | @PeteFiutak

Nine wins are nothing new for a Rebel program that went 9-4 in 2009, came up with nine victories in 2008, and won ten games in 2003, but last year was a bit different considering just how nasty the SEC West was and just how tough the schedule turned out to be.

Not only was Ole Miss the lone team to beat Alabama before the playoff, but it also beat a Boise State team that ended up going on to win the Fiesta Bowl. Throw in the Egg Bowl win over Mississippi State – which killed any notion that the Bulldogs deserved a spot in the playoff – and wins over Tennessee and Texas A&M, and 2014 would normally be seen as a strong year.

Of course, the brutal 10-7 loss to LSU, followed up by the heartbreaking 35-31 loss to Auburn after star receiver Laquon Treadwell broke his leg and just missed scoring a game-winning touchdown by an inch, put a damper on all the fun. The Rebels just seemed worn out when they were beaten up by Arkansas, and then there was the Peach Bowl that ruined everything.

Just when it seemed like Ole Miss was about to come up with something special to close things out after the Mississippi State win, TCU applied a 42-3 atomic wedgie. Since bowl games tend to be what ties seasons into a bow, Ole Miss will unfairly be remembered as the team that got in the way of a bunch of angry Horned Frogs.

So is the window still open after the phenomenal 2013 recruiting class that changed everything about the program, or is this it? Is Ole Miss going to be a team full of a few really, really talented players, but is missing something here or there that could put the program over the top?

Outside of the TCU game, the defense was phenomenal all season long, finishing first in the nation in scoring defense and doing a tremendous job in all phases. Nine teams were held to 17 points or fewer, and led by DT Robert Nkemdiche, there won’t be much of a drop-off this year.

The offense was solid, but it wasn’t consistent and it made way too many mistakes – Bo Wallace vs. LSU is front-and-center. But Wallace isn’t around anymore and the O has the line and has the playmakers to be even better. As long as the defense is doing what it’s supposed to, the offense won’t have to do much of the heavy lifting.

But it’s still life in the SEC West and it’s still going to be a grind week in and week out. Ole Miss might be one of the ten best teams in the country, but could still have to claw its way to eight wins.

But at least head coach Hugh Freeze has Ole Miss football in the discussion. The program is not only relevant, but it’s a major player. Now it has to maintain the high level set early on last season, and this year, it has to try to do more or else another year like 2014 won’t be seen as a successful disappointment, it’ll just be disappointing.

What to watch for on offense: Will the passing offense find any semblance of consistency. Bo Wallace had his moments of very good to go along with the total meltdowns, but the bigger overall problem was his wild swings in production. The Rebels completed fewer than 50% of their passes in five of their final seven games, and one of those aberrations came against Presbyterian. No matter who’s at the helm – the offense has to be more efficient and more effective. It’s not asking a lot to connect on more than half the throws while making a few big things happen down the field. The Rebels averaged fewer than seven yards per attempt in three of the four losses last year.

What to watch for on defense: Even more beef and strength up front. The run defense was terrific last season, but this year it could be an absolute brick wall. Robert Nkemdiche is already rising up as one of the nation’s top linemen and a top NFL prospect, but the combination of 6-1, 250-pound Isaac Gross and 6-3, 315-pound Woodrow Hamilton on the nose is experienced, and with depth to go along with talent at all four spots, look out. Marquis Haynes is still going to be a speed rusher on the outside, but with the 280-pound Fadol Brown likely working at one end, this suddenly looks like a very big, very tough front four.

The team will be far better if … the turnovers stop. Not having Bo Wallace around anymore might have a little bit to do with changing that around, but considering the killer D that came up with 32 takeaways, Ole Miss wasn’t on the right side of the turnover margin often enough. Out of the 25 giveaways on the season, 15 came in the four losses – including six against Arkansas and four against TCU. The four giveaways didn’t matter much against Memphis, but the three against Boise State kept the game tighter than it should’ve been for a while. Over the last seven seasons, Ole Miss has only lost one game – Vanderbilt in 2012 – when it didn’t turn the ball over.

The schedule: There’s time to tune up with UT Martin and Fresno State before starting up the SEC season at Alabama. At least the Rebels get the big guy out of the way early.
– After the non-conference games to open the year, there are just enough road games to be annoying, going to Florida and Memphis – don’t laugh, the Tigers are dangerous – before getting two straight home games in November against Arkansas and LSU.
– At Memphis doesn’t really count as a top-shelf non-conference game. The same goes for Fresno State, with UT Martin and New Mexico State the other two.
– Texas A&M, Arkansas and LSU at home help, but that doesn’t make up for road games at Bama, Auburn and Mississippi State.
– WATCH OUT FOR … The road trip to Florida. The Rebels catch a break by getting Vandy from the East, but this might be a must-win home game for the Gators. Ole Miss could be 1-2 to start the SEC season.

What You Need To Know About The Offense: The offense was way too erratic and seemed to go bye-bye at the worst times, scoring a total of ten points in the three losses. The first step is settling the quarterback situation with Clemson transfer Chad Kelly the first option. The receiving corps is in place to come up with bigger plays down the field – especially if Laquon Treadwell is back to 100% coming off a broken leg – and the ground game should be decent. Jaylen Walton isn’t a special back, but he’s a sound veteran working behind a potentially dominant O line that returns all five starters – assuming OT Laremy Tunsil is healthy after suffering a broken leg in the bowl loss to TCU.

What You Need To Know About The Defense: The Landsharks – what the Ole Miss D calls itself – is coming off a whale of a season finishing first in the nation in scoring D and doing a tremendous job for most of the year – except for the three losses. The Rebels allowed fewer than 30 points in all nine wins, and more in each of the three defeats. This year, the line should be even more of a brick wall with Robert Nkemdiche controlling the middle of a big, strong front. End C.J. Johnson is moving to middle linebacker in what should be yet another strong unit. The secondary should be able to rebound from the loss of three key starters anchored by Tony Conner and Mike Hilton, likely the nation’s best safety tandem.

Best offensive player: Junior OT Laremy Tunsil. A ready-made NFL starting tackle, he might not have the bulk, but he knows how to move his feet and is terrific in pass protection. The offense has a few next-level talents in WR Laquon Treadwell and TE Evan Engram, but the line needs its star left tackle to be back and 100% after his leg injury. There’s depth up front, and there’s talent, but Tunsil is the superstar anchor.

Best defensive player: Junior DT Robert Nkemdiche. He’s not going to be spectacular in terms of a pass rush, and he’s not going to blow things up and be on the highlight reels, but he’s the guy the great line is once again going to work around. There’s talent across the board, and the linebacking corps should be terrific to clean things up, but the one-time No. 1 overall recruit is the anchor and the one opposing offenses have to figure out how to shove around.

Key player to a successful season: Junior QB Chad Kelly. There are other options, but the Clemson transfer is the best one in a Win Now mode. Sophomore Ryan Buchanan had a great spring – at least until the spring game – and fellow sophomore DeVante Kincaide is an interesting prospect, but it’s Kelly who has the potential to not only make the passing game go, but improve it. Ole Miss doesn’t have any hope of winning the West unless he – or one of the other quarterback prospects – is terrific.

The season will be a success if … the Rebels win ten games. They might have been the favorites to win the division in a few other Power 5 conferences, but road trips to Alabama, Florida, Auburn and Mississippi State – to go along with the home games against LSU and Arkansas – will make it tough to get through without at least two losses. With this defense, though, a ten-win season is absolutely possible, but the consistency and offensive pop have to be there in a league full of dangerous teams. Outside of the Alabama game – even with the win last year – there isn’t any one game on the slate that Ole Miss will be a big underdog in.

Key game: Oct. 31 at Auburn. The nightmare of losses last year, for a variety of reasons, the Auburn game could be the make-or-break moment for the Rebels. Assuming a loss at Alabama early on, if the Rebels can get by Florida in the Swamp and take care of Texas A&M at home, they should be no worse than 7-1 before going to Auburn. Win that, and all of a sudden the season might become something special.

2014 Fun Stats:
– Fourth Down Conversions: Opponents 8-of-15 (53%) – Ole Miss 9-of-20 (45%)
– Time Of Possession: Opponents 31:46 – Ole Miss 28:14
– Fourth Quarter Scoring: Ole Miss 105 – Opponents 49

Players You Need To Know

1. DT Robert Nkemdiche, Jr.
At 6-4 and 280 pounds, he has the right size and the right frame for the NFL as either a big end in a 3-4 or a quick tackle who can make things happen and be disruptive on the inside. Versatile, he can do a little bit of everything considering his size and skill set. The nation’s No. 1 recruit of 2013 has lived up to the hype and expectations, even if he’s not all that splashy. He can get behind the line, and he’ll occasionally get to the quarterback, but that’s not his game. His job is occupy the interior and stuff things up, coming up with 35 tackles with two sacks and four tackles for loss. The key will be to stay healthy and consistent. If he can be in one piece, he’ll be a top five draft pick next year.

2. OT Laremy Tunsil, Jr.
How fast can he return from the broken leg suffered in the bowl loss to TCU? The key was that it was a break, and it’s supposed to heal up in time for the season. The 6-5, 305-pound two-time All-SEC talent has all the skills and the athleticism to become some NFL team’s franchise blocker, but he has to return 100%. At 6-5 and 305 pounds, he has the right size and the right frame – with the ability to fluctuate his weight and get a little bigger – and now he might be the key to the season. Out of all the great gets from the 2013 recruiting class, finding a left tackle like Tunsil was the most important signing. Thrown to the wolves from the start, he did great as a true freshman, allowing just one sack, and he allowed just one last year, too. Outside of the health, he’s it in terms of what the pro scouts are looking for.

3. WR Laquon Treadwell, Jr.
While he might not fit the prototype of the ideal NFL receiver, he’s a next-level talent who’ll soon have a long, productive career on Sundays. First, he has to get back for the horrific leg injury suffered in the middle of the season against Auburn, but he’s on track to return and be back to form this year. Before getting hurt, he was in the midst of a marvelous season, catching 48 passes for 632 yards and five scores after making 72 grabs as a freshman. Ironically, he did the most damage in the Auburn game with ten catches for 103 yards and a score before getting hurt – coming an inch away from it being a 104-yard, two score day that likely would’ve given Ole Miss the win. At 6-2 and 229 pounds he’s a thick, tough target who’s more like a midrange possession receiver than a stretch-the-field blazer. His speed is fine, but that’s not really his game with a calling card as an ultra-reliable, consistent go-to guy.

4. S Tony Conner, Jr.
In just about any other recruiting class he would’ve been the star of stars, but in 2013, he just a part of the fun. However, with the NFL starved for top safeties, he has a huge future ahead of himself at the next level. The 6-0, 217-pounder might be the nation’s most intimidating hitters in the secondary, bringing a massive pop whenever he’s around the ball. The prototype, he has the size and the range to go along with the ability to blast, and now he has the experience, Terrific as a freshman – making 66 tackles with six broken up passes – he was second on the team with 69 stops with two broken up passes. Able to be used like a quick linebacker at times, he also came up with a sack and nine tackles for loss. After spending his first two seasons as part of a terrific secondary, now he’s the star.

5. TE Evan Engram, Jr.
Yet another fantastic part of the epic 2013 recruiting class, the 6-3, 227-pounder has added a little weight to his frame to be more than just a big wide receiver, even though that’s really what he is. An all-star in each of his first two seasons, he followed up a 21-catch, 268-yard, three score season by being more of a field-stretcher catching 38 passes for 662 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 17.4 yards per grab. While he was a little streaky, he came up with three 100-yard games, highlighted by a five-catch, 176-yard day in the win over Mississippi State. He might not be a top blocker, but if he keeps progressing into a top target, that won’t matter too much.

6. LB Denzel Nkemdiche, Sr.
It’s been an interesting ride both on and off the field for Nkemdiche, but when he’s in the mix, he’s as productive as any linebacker in the SEC. A profane tirade in a spring break YouTube video was enough to get him suspended for a time, and there have been other incidents, but he’s a hitting machine for his size making 82 tackles as a freshman and coming up with 35 as a sophomore before getting hit with a knee injury. At 5-11 and 212 pounds he’s not big, and he’s not built to hold up to the pounding, but he’s a guided missile when he’s around the ball. Last year he came up with 28 tackles before getting knocked out for the year with an ankle injury. Fortunately, it happened early enough that he should be all back full this year – now he has to stay in one piece.

7. DE/LB C.J. Johnson, Sr.
A defensive end for a bulk of his career, he’s going to get a look at middle linebacker to use his 6-2, 225-pound size and good toughness to see if he’s right for the job. Great as a pass rusher off the edge, he came up with 38 tackles with four sacks and eight tackles for loss in a good year after coming back from an ankle injury. Stronger in 2012 with 55 tackles and 6.5 sacks, he has the right blend of speed and power, and now he’s going to see if his game translates to middle linebacker.

8. DE Marquis Haynes, Soph.
The speed guy on a line full of beef, the 6-3, 220-pound Haynes is built a bit like a big safety, but he can hold his own on the defensive front as a pure pass rusher. A Freshman All-American, he came up with a team-leading 7.5 sacks with 31 tackles and nine tackles for loss. While he wasn’t consistent as a pass rusher – 4.5 of his sacks came in a two game stretch against Texas A&M and Tennessee – he was just fine throughout the year against the run.

9. S Mike Hilton, Sr.
Tony Conner, Cody Prewitt and Senquez Golson got all the publicity and the limelight, but it was Hilton who led the team in tackles coming up with 71 on the year with three picks and seven broken up passes despite missing a few games with a hamstring injury. The 5-9, 182-pounder is feisty and tough for a corner, coming up with five tackles or more in every game but four. Able to move around where needed, he’ll see more time at safety this year where he’ll get to do more to roam and make big plays. Tremendously quick and with great cutting ability, he has the skills to go along with the pop – he’s a purely good football player.

10. QB Chad Kelly, Jr.
Is Kelly ready to take the offense to another level? In a fight for the starting quarterback gig, the Clemson transfer has the ability, the tools and the upside to be exactly what the offense needs. At 6-3 and 220 pounds he has excellent size with a live arm, and he has the experience, seeing a little time with the Tigers before lighting it up at East Mississippi CC on the way to a JUCO national title. Not just a pocket passer, he can run a little bit and can make things happen in the open field. Fully past the torn ACL suffered at Clemson, the nephew of Hall of Fame quarterback Jim Kelly is also seemingly past an off-field incident involving a bar fight. A good get for the program, he’s ready to step in and produce right away.

Head Coach: Hugh Freeze
4th year: 24-15
8th year overall: 54-22
Schedule
Sept. 5 UT Martin
Sept. 12 Fresno State
Sept. 19 at Alabama
Sept. 26 Vanderbilt
Oct. 3 at Florida
Oct. 10 New Mexico State
Oct. 17 at Memphis
Oct. 24 Texas A&M
Oct. 31 at Auburn
Nov. 7 Arkansas
Nov. 14 OPEN DATE
Nov. 21 LSU
Nov. 28 at Miss State
Ten Best Rebel Players
1. DT Robert Nkemdiche, Jr.
2. OT Laremy Tunsil, Jr.
3. WR Laquon Treadwell, Jr.
4. TE Evan Engram, Jr.
5. S Tony Conner, Jr.
6. LB Denzel Nkemdiche, Sr.
7. DE/LB C.J. Johnson, Sr.
8. DE Marquis Haynes, Soph.
9. S Mike Hilton, Sr.
10. QB Chad Kelly, Jr.