2015 CFB Preview – Oregon

    Oregon DucksGo to Team Page DucksGo to Selection Page           Life after Marcus Mariota will be different. But Oregon has no

     
       

    Life after Marcus Mariota will be different. But Oregon has no plans of leaving the Pac-12—or national—penthouse.

    By Rich Cirminiello | @RichCirminiello

    No, you don’t get better by losing a quarterback of Mariota’s experience and diverse abilities. The Ducks, though, have been built for sustained excellence, winning at least nine games in eight straight seasons. Coaches and quarterbacks have changed, but the results have not in Eugene. So, while another league title and a return to the national championship game won’t happen without some heavy lifting, Oregon has the blueprint for plugging in new stars and cranking out points. And now that Mark Helfrich has stepped further out of Chip Kelly’s long shadow, the Ducks are in even a better position to retool on the fly.

    Vernon Adams or Jeff Lockie? It’s the question that will consume Duck fans between now and the visit from Eastern Washington, ironically Adams’ last team. He didn’t make the uncommon transfer from a successful FCS program to stand on the sidelines, but then again Lockie is in his third year in the system, and isn’t about to concede anything to a newcomer. As long as Mariota isn’t used as the measuring stick, Adams and Lockie will be fine, because the finely-tuned system has a way of masking inexperience, and because the skill players in Eugene are as dynamic as any in the country. It’ll be difficult to fail when Royce Freeman is taking the handoffs -even with Thomas Tyner out for the season with a shoulder problem – and Bralon Addison, Devon Allen, Byron Marshall, Darren Carrington and Dwayne Stanford are running routes.

    Although the defense is rarely the reason Oregon wins—or loses—games, Don Pellum’s unit could play an expanded role in 2015. Not unlike their offense, the Ducks are going to attack on D, dictating the tempo with athletes who can cause havoc in all directions. Pellum’s front seven is in solid shape, led by DE DeForest Buckner and an unheralded collection of linebackers. The defensive backfield, though, is an area of concern. The graduations of Erick Dargan, Ifo Ekpre-Olomu and Troy Hill have led to uncertainty and heated battles for playing time. Even more than the offensive line, the secondary is the unit giving the staff the most sleepless nights this offseason.

    The quarterback will be different in 2015. The expectations most certainly will not. Just like they weren’t after Darron Thomas gave way to a wide-eyed Mariota in 2012. Oregon remains in the upper echelon of the Pac-12’s, and among the dozen or so most talented programs in the nation. But capturing another league title or retuning to the playoff will require more of a collaborative effort in Eugene, because Mariota’s importance to this program extended far beyond numbers and individual awards.

    What you need to know about the offense: Yeah, there’s a massive void at quarterback, but the Oregon offense was built to withstand the departures of individuals, even those as gifted as Marcus Mariota. The Ducks will stage one of the can’t-miss QB battles of August between last year’s No. 2, Jeff Lockie, and decorated Eastern Washington transfer Vernon Adams. The good news for whoever gets the nod from Mark Helfrich is that he’ll have access to one of the deepest and most electrifying group of skill players in the country. The concern, though, is that the line is getting a new look, especially on the inside. Tackles Tyler Johnstone and Tyrell Crosby will have the flanks covered, but someone must step up and replace C Hroniss Grasu. The transition for Lockie and Adams will be made significantly easier by the backs and receivers. Royce Freeman is a sensational back, but he’ll have to be durable with Thomas Tyner out for the year after undergoing shoulder surgery, but Kani Benoit would start for a bunch of schools. Plus, there won’t be enough balls to go around for a receiving corps that brings back last year’s top five pass-catchers, and returns budding superstar Bralon Addison from a season-long injury. If next-level TE Pharaoh Brown can return from a career-threatening leg injury, the receivers become an embarrassment of riches.

    What you need to know about the defense: It was an up-and-down year for coordinator Don Pellum, his first since succeeding the popular Nick Aliotti. The Ducks experienced some early stumbles, finished the regular season very strong, but got exposed in the title game by Ohio State. Pellum expects more consistency and better communication this fall, despite losing a big chunk of his secondary. While safeties Reggie Daniels and Tyree Robinson are set, corners Chris Seisay, Arrion Springs, converted WR Charles Nelson and rookie Ugo Amadi will battle for reps throughout the summer. In contrast, Oregon is confident about its front seven, and ultimately its ability to improve versus the run. The linebackers are blue-collar, though Danny Mattingly has a star’s trajectory and Christian French could become the long edge rusher the unit covets. The D-line just needs a running mate to accompany future first-round DE DeForest Buckner and underrated NG Alex Balducci. Rookie Canton Kaumatule, Henry Mondreaux and Tui Talia have limited experience, but the measurables to bloom into important roles players this fall.

    What to watch for on offense: Steady or spectacular? Oregon has an opening at quarterback now that Marcus Mariota is a Tennessee Titan. But the competition to lead one of the nation’s best offenses doesn’t really begin until Eastern Washington transfer Vernon Adams arrives in the summer. The two-time Walter Payton Award runner-up is a dynamic all-around playmaker, with a track record versus Pac-12 defenses. However, junior Jeff Lockie conceded nothing this spring. No, he’s not as flashy as Adams. But he’s accurate, knows the system and is a natural leader. He’s a known commodity in Eugene. Mark Helfrich has two distinct options in what promises to be one of the most intriguing quarterback battles of August.

    What to watch for on defense: Behold the three-way threat. A year after debuting with five receiving touchdowns and more than 1,000 all-purpose yards, Charles Nelson is adding cornerback to his resume. Think second coming of De’Anthony Thomas, with underrated tackling skills. Nelson is also an electrifying return man, feeding the notion that he’ll be one of the buzziest players in college football this season. Although Oregon plans to continue developing him at corner, he still torched his new defensive mates as a receiver in the spring game. Nelson is going to be the classic utility man this season for the Ducks.

    The team will be far better if… the defense makes more third-down stops. The offense will still score plenty, but there’s likely to be some drop-off in a world without Marcus Mariota. So, even a modest dip could force Don Pellum’s defense to pick up some of the slack in 2015. The Ducks had problems making third down stops last season, ranking last in the Pac-12, and will be even more vulnerable now that the secondary is replacing three starters. Prior to the national championship game with Ohio State, Oregon was playing well on D. It’s got to build on the end of the regular season, particularly when there’s a chance to force the other guys to punt.

    The Schedule:
    – Part 2 of the home-and-home series with Michigan State takes place in Week 2 … this time in East Lansing, where the Spartans will be seeking revenge for last year’s second-half collapse.
    – The Ducks will encounter three difficult games with South Division opponents, travelling to Tempe to play Arizona State and hosting Utah and USC.
    – Maintaining health is always important, but especially this season. The Ducks’ final three games, when it could be surging for another Pac-12 title, will be against arch-nemesis Stanford, USC and rival Oregon State.
    – Wrapped around the all-important Michigan State game are a pair of heavy underdogs. The Ducks open the season with FCS Eastern Washington, new QB Vernon Adams’ former team, and a visit from Georgia State follows the Spartans.
    – The annual showdown with North Division rival Stanford takes place this year on the Farm. The Ducks and the Cardinal are the only two teams to play in the title game since the Pac-12 went to a divisional format.
    – WATCH OUT FOR … Utah. The Utes operate with a level of physicality that could present problems to the Ducks. And on Sept. 26, Oregon might still be adjusting to life after Marcus Mariota.

    Best offensive player: Sophomore RB Royce Freeman. Marcus Mariota left Eugene following his junior year. Freeman is the new front man of the Oregon offense. Freeman was sensational in his first season out of high school, but it was just the beginning of his ascent in Eugene. Much more than just a gifted runner, he has a tremendous work ethic, and he’s significantly stronger this season at 230 pounds. Freeman is a bear to bring down in short yardage, a power-punching complement to an attack loaded with speed on the outside.

    Best defensive player: Senior DE DeForest Buckner. Along with senior NG Alex Balducci, Buckner is ready to anchor the Oregon line, while improving his grade in NFL scouting circles. Buckner could follow former teammate Arik Armstead into the first round of next April’s draft, bringing a rare mix of size, strength and agility to the edge of the line. After turning the corner in 2014, Buckner is liable to explode this fall into the kind of disruptive force that requires two blockers and garners attention for national awards.

    Key player to a successful season: Senior QB Vernon Adams or junior Jeff Lockie. Long before Mark Helfrich, or even Chip Kelly, Oregon was always a quarterback driven program. And while the winner of the race to replace Marcus Mariota wont have to be Marcus Mariota, he will have to orchestrate the attack with pop and precision. If the quarterback in this system lacks confidence or consistency it’s going to limit the upside potential of the playmaking backs and receivers. And that would be a recipe for an overall slip in the rankings for the Ducks.

    The season will be a success if … the Ducks capture a second-straight Pac-12 championship. A return to the playoffs will be challenging in the year after Marcus Mariota, but no one in the conference is clearly better than this team. It’s Oregon or Stanford in the North Division, and the Cardinal is dealing with wholesale changes on defense. And if the Ducks can get back to Santa Clara for the league title game, their offense ought to be humming by then behind Vernon Adams or Jeff Lockie. Oregon is a machine, with a ton of talent, so shooting for anything lower than the Pac-12 penthouse just doesn’t make sense.

    Key game: Nov. 14 at Stanford. Returning to the College Football Playoff is a two-step process for the Ducks—win the North Division, and then beat the South champ to capture a second-straight Pac-12 title. Winning the North, as always, hinges on beating the Cardinal. Oregon and Stanford remain the two best teams in the division, by far, with each winning the conference twice in the last four years. By mid-November, both schools will know a ton more about the new starters spaced throughout their depth charts.

    2014 Fun Stats:
    – Rushing touchdowns: Oregon 42 – Opponents 22
    – Turnovers: Oregon 11 – Opponents 34
    – Time of possession: Oregon 26:49 – Opponents 33:11

    Players You Need To Know

    1. RB Royce Freeman, Soph.
    The expectations were high, but no one could have predicted last season. In his first season removed from Imperial (Calif.) High School, Freeman seized control of the feature role and became the first true freshman in Oregon history to rush for 1,000 yards. More specifically, the precocious 5-11, 230-pounder went for 1,365 yards and 18 touchdowns on 252 carries. Freeman is a classic north-south battering ram, wasting no movement as he bursts through the hole searching for a defender to trample. His toughness complements the rest of the unit’s flash and breakaway speed.

    2. DE DeForest Buckner, Sr.
    Arik Armstead left for the NFL Draft, so it was fortunate that Buckner decided to return to school to anchor the Oregon D-line. Buckner is not only the Ducks’ best returning defender, but he’s also one of the vocal leaders of the D. The 6-7, 290-pounder started every game in 2014, impressively racking up 81 tackles, a team-best 13 stops for loss and four sacks. Buckner might ultimately have a higher NFL ceiling than Armstead, which he’ll set out to prove in his final year as an amateur.

    3. WR Bralon Addison, Jr.
    Addison is exactly what’s expected from a Duck skill player these days, explosive, elusive and lightning fast as a receiver and a return man. And he had All-American potential in 2014 as Marcus Mariota’s favorite target. But a knee injury in April instantly changed his fortune and kept him from playing a single down. Addison blossomed into an emergent star as a sophomore by catching 61 balls for 890 yards and seven touchdowns, while adding two punt returns for six versus Cal. He’ll be one of the best friends of Mariota’s successor in 2015.

    4. OT Tyler Johnstone, Sr.
    Johnstone was a microcosm for a Duck O-line that was hampered by injuries throughout the 2014 season. The team’s starting left tackle reinjured his ACL in August to snap his streak of 26 straight starts and create a sizable void up front in Eugene. But the 6-6, 295-pound Johnstone is returning to anchor the Oregon front wall with a skill set that was tailored to the first round of the NFL Draft before the injury occurred. An honorable mention All-Pac-12 pick in 2013, he’s setting his sights considerably higher in 2015.

    5. WR Byron Marshall, Sr.
    In 2013, Marshall rushed for than 1,000 yards. In 2014, he split out to help the depleted receiving corps and had more than 1,000 receiving yards. He is the very definition of a millennial. Marshall is a luxury for Mark Helfrich and the coaching staff, able to address a variety of needs that crop up on offense. After unexpectedly being named honorable mention All-Pac-12 as a wide receiver, Marshall will be back in the slot this fall, poised to do whatever is necessary to help the Quack Attack soar.

    6. RB Thomas Tyner, Jr.
    Yeah, Tyner was upstaged last season by Royce Freeman, but the junior was supposed to be one of the most talented Plan B’s in the country – until he underwent shoulder surgery. Tyner, who would start for most FBS programs, ended up third on the team with 573 yards and five touchdowns on 113 carries, but he injured his shoulder on a kickoff last year, got it worked on, and now he’ll have to wait until next year to get back into the mix. When he’s back, he’ll be devastating, possessing uncommon speed and agility for a 5-11, 215-pounder, exploding through holes and into defenders once he gains a head of steam. Tyner is going to be an NFL starter at some point – now he has to get healthy again.

    7. WR Darren Carrington, Soph.
    Carrington will be remembered for getting suspended for the national championship for failing a drug test. But prior to that gaffe, he was emerging into a force on the outside for the Ducks. He scorched Arizona in the Pac-12 title game and Florida State in the Rose Bowl to finish his first season of action with 37 catches for 704 yards and four touchdowns. While Carrington is not the fastest of the Duck receivers, he has a long stride, the 6-2, 195-pound body to get vertical and improving ball skills.

    8. WR Devon Allen, Soph.
    Not very big. Blazing fast. Tough and dedicated. Allen is a quintessential Duck. And he’s the rare track star to made a fluid transition to football, beginning his Oregon career with 41 receptions for 684 yards and seven touchdowns. The 6-0, 185-pounder can fly, as evidenced by last year’s NCAA championship in the 110m hurdles. But Allen is also an emerging receiver, with good hands and a willingness to work between the hashes. He’ll be making his way back from a knee injury suffered in last year’s Rose Bowl.

    9. LB Rodney Hardrick, Sr.
    Hardrick is Oregon’s rugged stalwart at inside linebacker and the quarterback of the entire defense. He sets the tone from the second level, providing vocal leadership and guidance to the teammates surrounding him. Hardrick is a stout 6-1, 245-pound who holds up very well at the point of contact. One of eight Ducks to start all 15 games last season, Hardrick finished with 75 tackles and a half-dozen stops behind the line.

    10. S Reggie Daniels, Sr.
    Daniels is back to hold down the fort for a secondary that’ll be missing three of last year’s outstanding all-league starters. The durable 6-1, 205-pounder was in the lineup for all 15 games, finishing third on the team with 83 tackles and fourth with 10 pass breakups. Daniels can really pack a punch, but he’ll need to be extra cognizant in pass defense as Oregon breaks in a pair of first-time starting cornerbacks.

    11. WR Dwayne Stanford, Jr.
    Stanford is a microcosm for a receiving corps that matured on the fly last season. He started 13 games in 2014 and was second on the team with 43 receptions for 639 yards and six touchdowns. But he ought not be judged on statistics alone. Sure, the 6-5, 205-pound Stanford is an enormous target for the quarterbacks, but he’s also an underrated blocker, a particularly important skill in this Oregon offense.

    12. LB Joe Walker, Sr.
    Walker was a bit of a revelation for the Ducks in 2014, his second season since transferring from L.A. Harbor (Calif.) College. After serving mostly in blowouts in his debut, he made 81 stops and eight tackles for loss as an integral part of the inside linebacker rotation. Walker doesn’t have the best range among the Oregon defenders, but he plays the game downhill and has the 6-2, 240-pound size to be an effective stopper against the run.

    13. TE Pharaoh Brown, Sr.
    Brown shook off a quiet first half to his career to break through in 2014. Unfortunately, a serious knee injury on Nov. 8 cut short an otherwise terrific junior year. Despite missing the final five games, Brown still caught 25 passes for 420 yards and six touchdowns to earn First Team All-Pac-12. He’s a rangy 6-6, 250-pounder who can create matchup problems with linebackers and safeties. Fingers are crossed around Eugene that he can return to form well at some point in 2015. If not, he does have a redshirt year available.

    14. LB Christian French, Sr.
    French stands to be this year’s Tony Washington in Eugene, an athletic outside linebacker who can serve multiple functions on defense. French harbors all of the necessary tools to bloom into a force, from his athleticism to his rangy 6-5, 250-pound frame. And he showed flashes from the bench in 2014, leading the Ducks with 6.5 sacks. But now he needs to win the job vacated by Washington, and clean up his overall technique so that pro scouts are left drooling over his potential.

    Head Coach: Mark Helfrich
    3rd year: 24-4
    Schedule
    Sept. 5 Eastern Washington
    Sept. 12 at Michigan State
    Sept. 19 Georgia State
    Sept. 26 Utah
    Oct. 3 at Colorado
    Oct. 10 Washington State
    Oct. 17 at Washington
    Oct. 24 OPEN DATE
    Oct. 29 at Arizona State
    Nov. 7 California
    Nov. 14 at Stanford
    Nov. 21 USC
    Nov. 27 Oregon State
    Ten Best Oregon Players
    1. RB Royce Freeman, Soph.
    2. DE DeForest Buckner, Sr.
    3. WR Bralon Addison, Jr.
    4. OT Tyler Johnstone, Sr.
    5. WR Byron Marshall, Sr.
    6. RB Thomas Tyner, Jr.* (INJ)
    7. ATH Charles Nelson, Soph.
    8. WR Darren Carrington, Soph.
    9. WR Devon Allen, Soph.
    10. LB Rodney Hardrick, Sr.

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