2015 CFB Preview – Stanford


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Now that Stanford’s run of 11-win seasons has ended at four, can David Shaw lead the team back to the Pac-12 mountaintop?

By Rich Cirminiello | @RichCirminiello

The Cardinal stumbled to an 8-5 mark last fall, uncharacteristic of a program that had been so impressively consistent since 2009. And while Stanford won’t be fading into obscurity anytime soon, it remains to be seen if it’s capable of keeping pace with Oregon in the North Division and the South Division’s growing number of upstarts.

The good news is that the 2014 squad showed no quit, blowing out Cal, UCLA and Maryland by at least three touchdowns to close the year. The concern? The Cardinal is facing wholesale changes on defense for the second straight year.

Two things have typified the Cardinal’s recent run under Jim Harbaugh and now David Shaw—a physical running game and an even more physical D. Both reputations will be tested in 2015. From the defense that ranked second nationally in scoring, eight starters are gone. That’s two consecutive years that this side of the ball has been excavated by graduation, which is going to test its resiliency and its depth. Stanford recruits—and prepares—exceedingly well on defense, but a repeat of last season’s 4.2 yards per play will be extremely difficult to duplicate.

If Lance Anderson’s defense is slightly more vulnerable than in recent years, the hope around the Farm is that the offense can do more of the heavy lifting for the first time since 2011. Stanford will boast once of the nation’s most seasoned quarterbacks, Kevin Hogan, who’ll spend the fall trying to improve his NFL draft stock. In stark contrast to the defense, all but two offensive starters from 2014 are back.

Save for possibly right tackle, there are no glaring personnel holes, so it’s time for this group to execute more efficiently. After three years of stops-and-starts, the Cardinal must become a team that can rely on its scoring punch from time to time.

Last year, the Cardinal faced its toughest challenge since the advent of the Harbaugh era … and largely fell short by going 1-4 versus ranked opponents. And now that Shaw is facing genuine adversity for the first time as the head coach, it’ll be interesting to see how he responds.

The coach’s kids have professed in the offseason to be hungrier than ever, but they’ll need to flip the script a bit to resume winning 10 games and competing for Pac-12 hardware.

As the defense retools for a second straight year, it’s time for Hogan and the unpredictable offense to carry a little more of the load for a program eyeing a return to contention.

What you need to know about the offense: New year, same problem for coordinator Mike Bloomgren and his assistants—Stanford needs more flash and better execution with the ball. This was a program that averaged more than 40 points per game in 2010 and 2011, Andrew Luck’s final two seasons. But with Kevin Hogan at the controls, it’s dipped below 30. Plus, the Cardinal hasn’t been able to match the ground output that existed when Toby Gerhart, Stepfan Taylor and Tyler Gaffney shouldered the load. Hogan is back for one more year, determined to build off a strong finish to his junior season. He’ll once again be well protected by a line returning four starters, though a new right tackle is needed now that Kyle Murphy has shifted to Andrus Peat’s spot on the left side. And Hogan has access to a capable set of receivers, led by Devon Cajuste and Michael Rector, and a deep tight end corps will be used more in 2015. However, more running room must be given to the backs, particularly as the team tries to unleash Christian McCaffrey, Remound Wright and Barry Sanders. McCaffrey is on the verge of stardom, and the program needs more pop from the backfield to escape its recent malaise.

What you need to know about the defense: For the second consecutive year, the defense is undergoing wholesale changes. Unlike last season, though, the staff is intact, as Lance Anderson prepares for Year 2 as the team’s coordinator. Anderson enjoyed a terrific debut, and few schools have been more consistent than the Cardinal over the last five years. So, while the first and last lines of the D are experiencing extreme makeovers, there’s a quiet confidence around Stanford that this campus will still be home to one of the Pac-12’s toughest units. The strength for Anderson will be at the second level, where Blake Martinez, Kevin Anderson and Peter Kalambayi can make stops in all directions. The D-line and the DBs, on the other hand, will need to come together with a collaboration of youth and experience. Up front, Aziz Shittu is eyeing a breakout finale, while sophomores Harrison Phillips and Solomon Thomas take aim at starring roles. Stanford also added Cal transfer Brennan Scarlett, whose potential has only been capped by injuries. In the secondary, fingers are crossed that CB Ronnie Harris and S Kodi Whitfield continue emerging, and holdover S Zach Hoffpauir resists the temptation to play baseball professionally. The Card’s first team ought to be stout, but inexperience will prevail on the B team.

What to watch for on offense: McEverything. A year ago, Stanford teased the country with the multi-dimensional ability of Christian McCaffrey. This fall, the Cardinal pulls back the curtain for a complete unveil. Officially listed as a running back, McCaffrey can do it all on offense, including catching passes, taking snaps out of the wildcat and contributing as a return man on special teams. And to prepare for his expanded role in 2015, he’s put in the time to become a better pass protector, and has bulked up considerably to 205 pounds.

What to watch for on defense: Reshaping the D-line. For a second straight year, the Cardinal will have a very new look up front after Henry Anderson, David Parry and Blake Lueders graduated. But the staff isn’t panicking, the residue of recruiting and coaching up the right kids. The next rotation will be light on experience, but young ends Harrison Phillips and Solomon Thomas are coming off breakout springs. Plus, underrated DE Brennan Scarlett transferred from Cal, and Aziz Shittu has breakout potential once he returns from last year’s leg injury. Stanford is poised for a quick rebound in the trenches.

The team will be far better if… QB Kevin Hogan picks up where he left off at the end of last season. Stanford’s formula for success is rather simple. When Hogan performs to the peak of his ability, the Cardinal can beat anyone. But when he’s pedestrian, the offense lacks the complementary answers to pick up the slack. In the team’s five 2014 losses, Hogan threw just two touchdown passes. Over the final three games, though, when he was on the money, Stanford was virtually unbeatable. He needs to be the Cardinal catalyst throughout 2015.

The Schedule: The Cardinal lack a traditional bye week that provides two full weeks of inactivity. Stanford is off Oct. 10, but plays the following Thursday night against UCLA.
– In a battle of elite academic institutions, Stanford and Northwestern kick off a home-and-home series with a matchup in Evanston on the season’s opening Saturday.
– The 2015 schedule shakes out very nicely from a home and away perspective. Of the Cardinal’s six most important games, five will be staged at Stanford Stadium.
– That lone pivotal road game this season will be at USC in Week 3. If the Cardinal can get out of the Coliseum with an upset, all of the expectations for 2015 will have to be rewritten.
– However, Stanford got no breaks with its South Division draw. The Cardinal plays defending divisional champ Arizona and both Los Angeles programs, USC and UCLA.
– WATCH OUT FOR … UCF. With George O’Leary on board, the Knights are always fundamentally sound and fast on defense. And they’ll be gunning for a statement in this first-ever matchup with a team from the state of California.

Best offensive player: Senior QB Kevin Hogan. Hogan is an enigma. On the one hand, he can be inconsistent, and he’s yet to develop into one of the game’s elite passers. On the other, however, he’s a fourth-year starter and the unequivocal leader of this program. Hogan has played in—and won—a ton of big games during his career, and he begins 2015 with the wind at his back. If he plays the way he did last November and December, it’ll unlock the potential of the offense, as well as his own NFL career.

Best defensive player: Senior LB Blake Martinez. Martinez has already proven he can fill the sizable shoes of Shayne Skov. Now, he’s out to become the guy who’s difficult to replace a year from now. Martinez operates with maximum effort and passion, on and away from the field, ensuring that his best football is still ahead of him. However, even more important than the numbers the senior will post this season is his impact on his teammates. The Cardinal is turning the page on D, and it’s going to look to Martinez for veteran guidance and a lead-by-example approach.

Key players to a successful season: CB Ronnie Harris and S Kodi Whitfield. While the revamped D-line is getting a lot of attention, the secondary is actually the bigger concern. CB Alex Carter and SS Jordan Richards were selected on Day 2 of the NFL Draft, and CB Wayne Lyons transferred to Michigan. FS Zach Hoffpauir is a returning starter, but Major League Baseball could lure him away from football. Stanford is pinning its hopes on a pair of seniors, Harris and Whitfield, who allayed some fears with their spring performances.

The season will be a success if … the Cardinal betters last season’s 8-5 mark. Despite facing significant turnover on defense, Stanford is capable of winning nine games, though a return to double-digit victories would more appropriately match expectations on the Farm. Plus, with Oregon having to replace Marcus Mariota, the Cardinal has every right to consider another Pac-12 North title within reach. Sure, the schedule is daunting, but most of this year’s toughest opponents will have to travel to Northern California.

Key game: Nov. 14 vs. Oregon. The Cardinal will play plenty of marquee games in 2015, but none will more profoundly impact the North Division chase than the visit from the Ducks. Oregon and Stanford are still the division’s clear-cut most talented teams, and the victor of their matchup typically appears in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Ducks coasted to a 45-16 win at Autzen Stadium last year, so the Cardinal will have a little extra motivation to pay its rival back this November.

2014 Fun Stats:
– Yards per game: Stanford 388.6 – Opponents 282.4
– Fumbles lost: Stanford 13 – Opponents 4
– Sacks: Stanford 46 – Opponents 23

Players You Need To Know

1. QB Kevin Hogan, Sr.
Hogan’s best football of 2014—and maybe his Cardinal career—occurred late in the year. Stanford is hoping he can build off that strong finish to blossom into one of the nation’s premier all-around quarterbacks. Hogan has started 32 games on The Farm, and he’s won plenty of important games. But a lack of consistency and sustained excellence haven been nagging issues for the 6-4, 225-pound Virginian. Last season, he completed 232-of-352 passes for 2,792 yards, 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions, while bulling ahead for 444 pre-sack rushing yards and five touchdowns on 91 carries.

2. OT Kyle Murphy, Sr.
Murphy is the latest in a growing line of Stanford offensive linemen possessing a one-way ticket to an early round of the NFL Draft. The former five-star recruit career really started to take off in 2014, culminating in a spot on the All-Pac-12 Second Team. Murphy is an impressive physical specimen, a long-armed 6-7, 298-pound, with unexpected footwork and balance. With the departure of Andrus Peat, Murphy is moving from the right side to the left, where he’ll be in charge of protecting QB Kevin Hogan’s blindside.

3. LB Blake Martinez, Sr.
What can Martinez do for an encore? He enjoyed a breakout debut as a starting inside linebacker, racking up a team-high 102 tackles, seven stops for loss, 4.5 sacks, three picks and two forced fumbles to earn honorable mention All-Pac-12. The emerging 6-2, 247-pounder, nicknamed “Machinez” for his fundamentally sound tackling skills, plays the game at full speed and maximum aggression at all times. And he has an opportunity to become more of a household name in 2015.

4. OG Joshua Garnett, Sr.
Four starters are back along the offensive line. Garnett figures to be the standard-bearer on the interior. Last season, he put down the ground floor as a first-time starter. This fall, he irons out some of the wrinkles and begins to attract the attention of NFL scouts. At 6-5 and 325 pounds, he’s a powerful run blocker, yet agile enough to get to the second level on pulling plays. If Garnett can fine-tune his technique and cut down on the mistakes, he’ll appear on the All-Pac-12 Team in December.

5. LB Kevin Anderson, Sr.
Anderson is ready to become one of the cornerstones and one of the leaders of a D that’s been hit hard by graduations and departures. He’s Stanford’s high-effort fifth-year senior, a blue-collar scrapper willing to do whatever is necessary to overcome modest speed and strength. In many ways, he epitomizes what it means to be a Cardinal. The 6-4, 245-pound Anderson was named honorable mention All-Pac-12 in 2014 for making 52 stops, 11.5 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks and six quarterback hurries.

6. WR Devon Cajuste, Sr.
Cajuste resisted the temptation to turn pro early, opting instead to return for his fifth year at Stanford. And the offense, specifically QB Kevin Hogan, couldn’t be much happier. Cajuste brings qualities of both a tight end and a wide receiver; he’s a physical 6-4, 230-pounder, yet he has the burst to run through the secondary. Cajuste enters 2015 with 63 career receptions, including 34 for 557 yards and a team-high six touchdowns catches last season.

7. RB Christian McCaffrey, Soph.
The Cardinal is looking for a spark on offense. McCaffrey is one of the young players poised to provide it in 2015. He got his feet wet last year, as his reps increased markedly throughout the year. And the flashes of potential were undeniable, including 300 yards on 42 carries and 17 receptions for 251 yards and two touchdowns. But now the staff wants to fully unwrap the 6-0, 205-pound McCaffrey, whose versatility, quickness in space and toughness are going to make him an increasingly popular cog in the attack.

8. TE Austin Hooper, Soph.
After a one-year hiatus, Stanford is back to being a proving ground for next-level tight ends. In just his first season of activity, Hooper earned a spot on the All-Pac-12 Second Team by catching 40 passes for 499 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Best of all, the Cardinal doesn’t feel a need to take its 6-4, 250-pounder off the field at any particular time. Hooper is as skilled as a blocker as he is as a pass-catcher, a rarity for college tight ends these days.

9. RB Remound Wright, Sr.
No, Wright isn’t going to be the workhorse that Tyler Gaffney or Stepfan Taylor were at Stanford. But when the Cardinal want to soften opposing defenses or convert in short yardage, No. 22 is going to get the ball. Wright will nicely complement the big-play ability of Christian McCaffrey and Barry Sanders Jr., using his strong base and low center of gravity to churn for more yards. The 5-9, 204-pound veteran led Stanford with 601 yards and 11 touchdowns on 135 carries in 2014.

10. LB Peter Kalambayi, Soph.
That Kalambayi didn’t start a single game in 2014 is no reflection on his future at Stanford. He possesses star qualities that should begin flourishing now that the front seven has been excavated by graduation. Kalambayi is a classic edge rusher from outside linebacker, with the speed and the long arms to develop into a terror for opposing quarterbacks. The 6-3, 245-pounder made the most of last year’s limited reps, tallying 32 tackles, 9.5 stops for loss and 6.5 sacks, including three versus Washington.

Head Coach: David Shaw
5th year: 42-12
Schedule
Sept. 5 at Northwestern
Sept. 12 UCF
Sept. 19 at USC
Sept. 25 at Oregon State
Oct. 3 Arizona
Oct. 10 OPEN DATE
Oct. 15 UCLA
Oct. 24 Washington
Oct. 31 at Washington State
Nov. 7 at Colorado
Nov. 14 Oregon
Nov. 21 California
Nov. 28 Notre Dame
Ten Best Stanford Players
1. QB Kevin Hogan, Sr.
2. OT Kyle Murphy, Sr.
3. LB Blake Martinez, Sr.
4. OG Joshua Garnett, Sr.
5. LB Kevin Anderson, Sr.
6. WR Devon Cajuste, Sr.
7. RB Christian McCaffrey, Soph.
8. TE Austin Hooper, Soph.
9. RB Remound Wright, Sr.
10. LB Peter Kalambayi, Soph.