2015 CFB Preview – West Virginia


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The problem is that several top Big 12 programs are out-West Virginiaing, West Virginia.

By Pete Fiutak | @PeteFiutak

Three years ago, West Virginia appeared to be perfectly set up for the move from the Big East to the high-octane Big 12. It had the coach who knew Big 12 offenses in Dana Holgorsen, it had the high-powered attack coming off a dominant Orange Bowl win over Clemson, and it had everything set up to be a major player in the new league.

Okay, so the defense has taken a few years to come around, but defense has occasionally been optional in a Big 12 with some of the best passing games in college football. You don’t need to have an Alabama defensive front to succeed – you just need a D that can hold its own once in a while as the offense does its thing.

Unfortunately, West Virginia hasn’t been able to outbomb everyone else. Baylor has led the Big 12 in total offense in each of the last three seasons. TCU rose up last year, and Oklahoma State finished ahead of the Mountaineers in yards in 2012 and 2013. Even with one of the nation’s best offenses, West Virginia was still fourth in the Big 12 in total offense and hasn’t been higher than third in its three years in the conference.

So, Holgorsen and his attack is mainly just a part of the fun, rather than a differentiator, so the defense has to start to work. A disaster in the first two seasons – finishing eighth in the league in 2012 and second-to-last in 2013 – all of a sudden there were signs of life last season.

The Mountaineer defense went from god-awful to just okay, and while it all resulted in just a 7-6 season, part of the problem was the loss of quarterback Clint Trickett, and the team was ultra-competitive in battles with elite Alabama and TCU teams.

This season there’s real reason to think that this could be the true breakthrough season. The conference might be One True Champion tough, but the Mountaineers are part of that with ten starters returning on a defense that should be the strongest yet under Holgorsen, and with the offense welcoming back nine starters with the potential for far more consistency.

Unfortunately, the Mountaineers can do absolutely everything right and still have to fight and claw their way to a top three conference finish. But at least they’re right there. They have a chip in the big game this season.

What You Need To Know About The Offense: Excellent last season, especially through the air, the offense should be terrific again despite the loss of star receiver Kevin White. Skyler Howard is ready to rise up and shine as the program’s new statistical monster quarterback, and he’ll be helped by the 1-2 rushing punch of Rushel Shell and Wendell Smallwood. The line might not be dominant, but it’s going to be good enough with a few moving parts and with enough talent to be fine. There isn’t a White at receiver, but there are several good receivers who can produce in the West Virginia system – don’t expect a massive drop in production.

What You Need To Know About The Defense: Be very, very shocked if this isn’t the best defense of the Dana Holgorsen era by far. The pass rush in the 3-4 alignment has to improve in a big way, but there’s size and experience on the front three – it should be a good group against the run. Nick Kwiatkoski leads a tremendous linebacking corps that has depth and experience across the board. If the playmaking in the backfield comes from this group, the D could be better by leaps and bounds. The safety tandem of Karl Joseph and Daryl Worley is terrific as the main men for a secondary that should be among the best in the Big 12.

What to watch for on offense: Can the transition of power equal just as much production? Is it the system or is it the star? The Mountaineer offense fell off in a big way in 2013 after losing QB Geno Smith, WR Stedman Bailey, and playmaker extraordinaire Tavon Austin, but it found its groove last year with the emergence of receivers Kevin White and Mario Alford to go along with a sensational first half of the season from QB Clint Trickett. Now it’s up to Skyler Howard to run the attack. RB Rushel Shell has to build off his good first season and do even more, while the receiving corps needs Daikiel Shorts and Jordan Thompson to somehow replace the production of White and Alford. There’s no time for hiccups in the Big 12. Almost every week will be a firefight, and the receivers have to be ready to produce.

What to watch for on defense: Expect more of a pass rush. Life is much easier against Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma State and the rest of the conference when you can pressure the quarterback and force mistakes. There were four sacks in the win over Baylor and two against Oklahoma State, but the Mountaineers came up with just three against the rest of the league and generated a mere 20 on the season. The pass rush has been an issue since joining the conference three years ago, but this season there’s hope for JUCO transfer Larry Jefferson to make an impact right away at one end, while needing the four man linebacking corps to be more dangerous. There’s a ton of talent in the back eight, and it has to be creative in bringing the heat.

The team will be far better if … the turnovers stop. West Virginia was a +1 in turnover margin against Alabama to start the season. The +2 against Oklahoma State was the only other time the team was on the right side of the mistakes. Eight times the Mountaineers lost the turnover battle, and it proved costly in the one point loss to TCU – going -3 – and was a problem against Oklahoma and Kansas State. They were able to overcome a -3 in wins over Baylor and Maryland, but to make any big push forward in the conference race, they can’t be -15 on the year and they can’t give up the ball 29 times.

The schedule: The Mountaineers have a very, very dangerous game to open things up having to deal with the nightmare of a Georgia Southern running game. This isn’t the team you want to start with – it’s not a normal home opener layup.
– The real tune-up is against Liberty, and the Mountaineers will need it, getting a week off to follow with Maryland up next – could it be a shootout like it was last year? – and then it’s Game On in Big 12 play.
– WVU gets the big boys right away starting out at Oklahoma, following it up with an improved Oklahoma State, and then road trips to Baylor and TCU.
– At least there’s a week off between dealing with the Bears and Horned Frogs. Making matters worse considering the road games at OU, Baylor and TCU is a date at Kansas State to close out the regular season.
– WATCH OUT FOR … November. A problem for West Virginia the last two seasons, it should be easier this time around with Texas Tech, Kansas and Iowa State on the slate along with a date against Texas. It might be tempting to think things are about to ease up, but the team might need to be hot.

Best offensive player: Junior QB Skyler Howard. At least that’s the hope. He stepped in for an injured Clint Trickett late in the season and was fantastic at times. He struggled a bit with his accuracy in the bowl loss to Texas A&M, but he didn’t turn the ball over and, overall, looked like the type of player the program can build around for the next few seasons. With a revamped receiving corps, Howard has to make everyone around him better. He has the talent to do just that.

Best defensive player: Senior S Karl Joseph. If Joseph is the No. 1 West Virginia defender, LB Nick Kwiatkowski is No. 1A. Kwiakoswki is the star of the front seven as both a pass rusher and top run stopper, but Joseph is the sheriff of a secondary that might be the best in the Big 12. A leader with three years of starting experience, he’s a great hitter, and one of the conference’s better defensive backs. With Dravon Henry back at free safety, and with a good corner situation led by Daryl Worley, Joseph won’t have to do it all.

Key player to a successful season: Junior WR Daikiel Shorts and/or Senior WR Jordan Thompson. How do you replace the loss of 174 catches and 21 touchdowns with Kevin White and Mario Alford gone? The Mountaineers always find new receivers to pick up the slack, and now it’s up to Shorts, Thompson, KJ Myers, and a slew of interesting young prospects to shine. Shorts has the most talent, but Thompson is the leading returning receiver.

The season will be a success if … the Mountaineers win nine games. The Big 12 is so, so tough, and it’s going to be impossible to take the conference title with road games at Oklahoma, Baylor, TCU and Kansas State. Even so, they’re good enough to win a few of those, and as long as there aren’t any hiccups at home, this should be the best season yet as a Big 12 program.

Key game: Oct. 3 at Oklahoma. Just the ninth time the two have ever met, the Sooners rocked and rolled to a 45-33 win last season and is 3-0 since the Mountaineers joined the conference. It’s the start to the Big 12 season for WVU, and it has to set the tone right away with several nasty road games still to deal with. Lose this, and it could be a brutal start with trips to Baylor and TCU before Halloween. This might be a really, really good Mountaineer team that starts the conference season 1-3.

2014 Fun Stats:
– Fumbles: West Virginia 28 (lost 19) – Opponents 13 (lost 2)
– Fourth Quarter Scoring: West Virginia 117 – Opponents 56
– Penalties: Opponents 108 for 1,072 yards – West Virginia 85 for 757 yards

Players You Need To Know

1. S Karl Joseph, Sr.
An absolute killer as a freshman, the 5-10, 197-pounder made 104 tackles with a sack, two picks and three forced fumbles, but he took a step back in 2013 and wasn’t in on as many big plays against the run, coming up with just 68 stops with 12 of those coming against Kansas State. He found his groove again last season finishing second on the team with 90 stops and 4.5 tackles for loss with three forced fumbles. An excellent hitter with great range to go along with three years of starting experience, he’s back at his All-America level. Wanted by a slew of SEC teams and some of the bigger Big 12 big boys, he was a great get for West Virginia, and now he’s about to finish up his career with a big year as the star of a loaded secondary.

2. LB Nick Kwiatkoski, Sr.
Somewhat out of the blue, the 6-2, 235-pound senior stepped up and became a physical presence coming up with 86 tackles with two sacks as a sophomore, and he surprisingly turned good against (the) pass making three picks on the way to honorable mention All-Big 12 honors. Last season he blew up with a team-leading 103 tackles with 11.5 tackles for loss and four broken up passes with ten tackles or more in five games. Able to play inside or out, he worked on the weakside as a sophomore, got a shot in the middle, and has a home on the strongside. One of the Big 12’s steadiest tacklers, he’ll be the anchor of a strong front seven.

3. QB Skyler Howard, Jr.
A terrific talent, he was in the mix early on last year for the starting job before being beaten out by Clint Trickett. When Trickett went down, Howard stepped in and was terrific over the final three games, throwing for 829 yards and eight touchdowns without a pick. While he struggled with his accuracy – he hit just 44% of his throws against Texas A&M in the bowl loss – he was able to push the ball well down the field. He’s only 6-0 and 202 pounds, but he has good size and has a live arm with decent mobility. The former JUCO transfer bombed away for Riverside City College – he has the experience before his West Virginia career. He’s more than ready to handle the work.

4. PK Josh Lambert, Jr.
Lambert turned in a huge season hitting 30-of-30 (what misses?) field goals with two of the misses blocked. He cranked out a 55-yard bomb against Texas Tech to go along with 54-yarders against Oklahoma and Baylor – he has the leg. Hitting his last seven field goals on the season, he’s used to getting lots of work and coming through. Last year he set the NCAA record with the most field goals made from beyond 40 yards in a season, hitting 16. He’ll get his share of chances again.

5. RB Rushel Shell, Jr.
The Pitt transfer had problems staying in shape and had issues at his former school, but last season he did a decent job as West Virginia’s leading rusher with 788 yards and seven scores. A good receiver, he caught 21 passes, but he wasn’t able to break off anything big and averaged just 4.5 yards per carry. If everything comes together, he has the talent and potential to be the best back in the Big 12. At 5-10 and 221 pounds he has good size, great balance, and the ability to be a workhorse to work around. However, he has to be ready to make the most of his abilities after getting suspended at Pitt before making the move to Morgantown. A superstar prospect, if he wants to be special and he’s looking to play in the NFL, the opportunity is there.

6. FS Dravon Henry, Soph.
Karl Joseph might be the star of the secondary, but Henry came up with a terrific freshman season showing the potential to be every bit as good. The 5-11, 198-pounder has corner athleticism and good ball-hawking potential, but he only picked off two passes. However, they both came in the win over Oklahoma State and took one for a score. A solid tackler, he made 45 stops topping out with eight solo hits against Texas A&M. The upside is there to be a consistent all-star.

7. CB Daryl Worley, Jr.
The veteran corner had off-the-field issues last year, and was banged up this offseason, but he’ll be ready to be among the Big 12’s best this season. At 6-2 and 198 pounds he has terrific size and great hitting ability with 52 stops. The team’s leader with three interceptions, he’s good at getting around the ball with 11 tackles against Alabama to open the season and with 44 solo stops on the season. While he’s not necessarily a shutdown corner, he can hold his own with every type of receiver.

8. S K.J. Dillon, Sr.
Part linebacker, part safety, the Spur in the 3-4 defense came up with three interceptions on the year including a pick six in the bowl loss to Texas A&M, and was fourth on the team with 62 tackles. At 6-1 and 203 pounds he has decent size and knows how to make plays in the open field. Better against the pass than he is as a pass rusher, he broke up seven passes and made 7.5 tackles for loss – he can do a little bit of everything. He’ll be used in a variety of ways.

9. C Tyler Orlosky, Jr.
While he might not be seen as an all-star or a big-time talent, he’s a really, really nice quarterback for the front five. The 6-4, 297-pound veteran is a two-time Academic All-Big 12 performer who does all the little things right. Versatile, he could work at guard, but he’s better suited in the middle.

10. WR Daikil Shorts, Jr.
Is the 6-1, 200-pound junior ready to be West Virginia’s next superstar receiver? He surprised as a freshman, turning into a key part of the passing game catching 45 passes for 495 yards with two touchdowns. Last season he took a back seat with just 24 catches for 346 yards and two scores, but he and Jordan Thompson, who caught 49 passes for 598 yards, formed a good tandem. Shorts is the bigger target, while the 5-7, 176-pound Thompson is the smaller speedster. Between the two, the passing game should be fine.

Head Coach: Dana Holgorsen
5th year: 28-23
Schedule
Sept. 5 Georgia Southern
Sept. 12 Liberty
Sept. 19 OPEN DATE
Sept. 26 Maryland
Oct. 3 at Oklahoma
Oct. 10 Oklahoma State
Oct. 17 at Baylor
Oct. 24 OPEN DATE
Oct. 29 at TCU
Nov. 7 Texas Tech
Nov. 14 Texas
Nov. 21 at Kansas
Nov. 28 Iowa State
Dec. 5 at Kansas State
Ten Best West Virginia Players
1. S Karl Joseph, Sr.
2. LB Nick Kwiatkoski, Sr.
3. QB Skyler Howard, Jr.
4. PK Josh Lambert, Jr.
5. RB Rushel Shell, Jr.
6. FS Dravon Henry, Soph.
7. CB Daryl Worley, Jr.
8. S K.J. Dillon, Sr.
9. C Tyler Orlosky, Jr.
10. WR Daikil Shorts, Jr.