It’s the NFL Draft from the college perspective with a simple mindset: can the guy play at the next level or not? What are his chances to succeed, and is he worth the time and effort? What’s his value?

The class is … fantastic, deep, and scary-good. It’ll be a test for the adage that running backs don’t really matter in today’s NFL – at least the individual doesn’t with dime-a-dozen runners always waiting for a turn. The spotlight will be on the stars – Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley – as they try to break into the first round, but the draft is loaded with talent and value throughout the list of top options. There are gems to be found in the third round and beyond. 
The most overrated prospect: David Johnson, Northern Iowa
The top underrated prospect: Javorius Allen, USC 
The deep, deep sleeper: Zach Zenner, South Dakota State 
The best value prospect: Karlos Williams, Florida State 

1. Jay Ajayi, Boise State 6-0, 221
– With a tremendous blend of quickness and toughness, he might not have a long shelf life, but he has the talent and the ability to be someone’s star back for a three-year run. He blew up the jumps at the combine and was ultra-fast around the cones. 
– The power is there to kill people when he gets up a head of steam. He’s not Marshawn Lynch, but he’s not afraid to get nasty between the tackles. 
– A three-down back, he can catch, block, and do everything asked of him. Despite a major problem under the Chris Petersen regime following an off-the-field incident, he’s coachable and will do whatever is needed.
– Does he have enough life left to take a pounding. Overused by the Broncos, he carried the offense way too much, and he never seemed to wear down or tire. 
Yes or No?: Yup. He might not have the pure talent or skill of a Todd Gurley or a Melvin Gordon, but he might be the most complete all-around back in the draft. He’s a No. 1 runner who can carry an offense by himself at times, and he’ll be a great value pick sometime in the mid-second round. 
Round Value: Second Round

2. Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin 6-1, 215 
– Quicker than fast, he’s a darting back who’s tougher than he looks. He might be tall and look a bit thin, but he can run with power between the tackles and finish off run when needed. Open up a little bit of a hole and he’ll crank out positive yards.
– The ultimate character prospect. A good guy with no phoniness – will always work to get better with the competitive streak to keep improving. He has things to work on – fumbling is a concern – and he’ll do what’s needed to get better.
– Not a receiver, at least not yet. He made a few big plays, but he wasn’t the type of back who looks like he could be a 70-catch guy out of the backfield, but that’s something he seems capable of improving.
– Forget about the Jamaal Charles comparisons – he’s not nearly as fast and doesn’t have the same dash. Speed does matter to his game and style, but what worked at Wisconsin isn’t going to fly in the pros.
Yes or No?: Absoutely, but as part of a puzzle. He should be a No. 1 back who shines with the opportunities, but he needs to be a better receiver to turn into more of a complete back. 
Round Value: First Round

3. Todd Gurley, Georgia 6-1, 222 
– If and when he’s healthy, he’s a special type of back who might be one of the three best players and prospects in the entire draft. If and when he’s healthy – he was always banged up, and then suffered a torn ACL he still needs to come back from.
– When he’s right, he’s freakishly fast with home run hitting speed, able to score from anywhere on the field. Combined with his size, he’s the right prospect out of central casting – except for the health problems.
– Yeah, he was suspended for a period for signing autographs. Whatever. His character is fine – there’s no concern there. 
– There’s power to go along with the flash. While he hasn’t been a consistent workhorse over the course of his career, he has the ability to grow into more of a dangerous receiver to go along with the pop to run over defenders on a regular basis. He might thrive as a part of a rotation, but can he be a 20-carry back over a 16-game season? 
Yes or No?: Yes, but in flashes. There will be times when he looks like something special, but durability is always going to be a problem. When he’s right, he’ll be dominant. Just don’t expect him to last for a full year. He’s a riskier pick than many scouts might have you believe. 
Round Value: Second Round

4. Tevin Coleman, Indiana 5-11, 206 
– Jay Ajayi is going to grow into the hot back that all the scouts are going to love, and Coleman won’t be far behind. It’s not pretentious or crazy in any way to think that he might be one of the two best backs in the draft. 
– A home run hitter, he might have been in a bit of a gimmicky offense, but he also produced when all 11 defenders were trained to stop him. Indiana had absolutely nothing else on offense over the second half of last season, and he still came through.
– He’s not quite a complete back and might need a little work on being an inside runner who sets up his blocks. His job at IU was to take the ball and run fast, and then power over the man after gearing up a head of steam.
– More powerful than he might get credit for. He’ll do whatever he needs to do – he’s not just a system back, and he’ll produce in any system.
Yes or No?: Yes, and he probably should be considered higher. The pure talent is there to be a phenomenal pro for a long, long time. Don’t be stunned if he has a better career than Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon. 
Round Value: Third Round

5. Duke Johnson, Miami 5-9, 207
– He was a flashy back in college who made big things happen with exceptional quickness and good cutting ability. However, he didn’t time all that well at the combine with just a 4.54 – it was fine, but not for his style and skills set. 
– He’ll provide a little more power than expected. He’s not going to be a blaster, but he’ll hit and get tough when needed. 
– There’s a chance he’s a better pro than a collegian. His style should blow up with the right offense – if he’s asked to make one cut and move, he’ll blow up. 
– Can he take a pounding at the next level? He’s tough, but he got beaten up in college and looked worn down at times. He could be phenomenal for a short period of time, but there might be a short shelf life.
Yes or No?: Yes, in the third round. He has the skill and talent to be a star for a little while, but can he be a lead back who can carry an NFL offense? As long as he doesn’t have to be a workhorse, and if he can grow into more of a receiver, he should thrive. 
Round Value: Second Round

6. T.J. Yeldon, Alabama 6-1, 226
– While he averaged over five yards per carry, he seemed to regress a bit last year. He was fine, but he didn’t take his game to another level and didn’t improve into a special back.
– There’s a nice blend of size, speed and pop. He’s not a blazer, but he has enough quickness and athleticism for a player of his bulk to make things happen in the open field.
– There’s a chance he turns into a whale of a receiving back. If he gets up a head of steam with the ball in his hands on the fly, look out.
– Fumbles, fumbles, fumbles. He has to do a far better job of hanging on to the ball and has to be far more reliable to become any sort of a workhorse back. The talent is there to be terrific, but he’s not seeing the field in key stretches if he puts the ball on the ground like he did at times in college.
Yes or No?: There’s a lot of boom-or-bust here, but the tools and talent are intruiging enough to take the chance. With his all-around ability, he could become a phenomenal pro – as long as he hangs on to the ball.
Round Value: Fourth Round

7. Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska 5-9, 205
– While he’s small and he’s not a blazer, he’s phenomenally athletic with elite quickness. He has a low center of gravity and cuts on a dime.
– The ideal team guy. He’s a dream of a hard-worker and teammate. Coaches and fellow players rave about him. He’ll do anything the team needs.
– While he’s strong and can bring a little power, he’s never going to be a tough inside-the-tackles runner. He’ll try to be a blocker, but he’s not going to be able to do it.
– Can he hang on to the ball? He put it on the turf way too often – he fumbles as a kick or punt returner, he’ll have a short life on special teams.
Yes or No?: Everyone will love him because he was ultra-productive, is tremendously athletic, and is the ultimate character guy, but he doesn’t have the blazing speed and he might not have the right skills to be a special NFL back. He’s also too small – he’ll have to find a niche.
Round Value: Third Round

8. Javorius Allen, USC 6-0, 221
– Smooth and fast for a big back, he’s tremendously quick and can get through the hole in a hurry. He’s always moving forward and he’s always making things happen with the ball in his hands.
– A good receiver, he can grow into a dangerous weapon when he gets a chance on the move in the open field. Has the quickness and feet to make his man miss.
– Not really a power back. He’s not going to blast away and he’s not going to be known as a blaster. He needs to learn how to finish runs a bit better.
– Watch out for him to find a role as a goal line/red zone runner. He might not power away for a short-yardage score, but he’s slippery – he’s good at getting forward, even if he’s not going through someone.
Yes or No?: Every year there’s a back who slips into the mid-to-late rounds who becomes the guy who makes teams regrest investing heavily in a back early on. Allen is it.
Round Value: Fourth Round

9. Karlos Williams, Florida State 6-1, 230
– Freakishly fast for a 230-pound back, he might not be tremendously quick, and he isn’t really a receiver, but humans at his size shouldn’t hover around a 4.4.
– A defensive back playing running back, he still needs refining, but there might be a great value if he’s taken in the later rounds. There’s a very, very high ceiling.
– He didn’t improve. A growing prospect in 2013, he didn’t step up last year. He wasn’t awful, but he didn’t blow up.
– There’s a ton of tread on the tires. Along with needing to improve as a back, he hasn’t had a ton of work. There’s a chance he’ll blossom after getting 100 carries or more – he needs the at-bats.
Yes or No?: There’s a lot not to like. He’s not a polished running back, he needs work, and there are character issues, but he’s a chance worth taking. The upside is enormous.
Round Value: Fourth Round

10. Jeremy Langford, Michigan State 6-0, 208
– A combine superstar, his 4.42 opened up some eyes. He was never known as a speed back, but he showed off the defensive back wheels – he was tried out at corner for a time – to make him a potential third down back, if nothing else.
– Smooth as silk. In Indy, he looked a half-step quicker than just about everyone else through the drills, moving and cutting on a dime.
– More powerful and stronger than he gets credit for. When he needs the hard yard, he’ll get it, especially around the goal line.
– With the hands to be a receiver, he could find his way into a third down role. With his speed and running ablity, there’s a chance he could be devastating if used correctly.
Yes or No?: Yes. You don’t score 41 touchdowns in two years as one of the main men for an offense like Michigan State’s without knowing how to make things happen. He’ll be a late round pick who’ll thrive. No, he won’t be a workhorse, but he’ll be a productive pro when he gets his chances.
Round Value: Fourth Round