During the 2022 golf season, Stadium sports betting analyst Nate Jacobson will share his betting targets each week using odds as of Tuesday morning. Here are his thoughts on this week’s 3M Open.
Note: Nate will tweet out his official bets when they are placed before the event. He also discusses his bets in all sports on the Sharp Lessons podcast. Subscribe on Spotify and Apple for episodes and follow Stadium Bets on Twitter for more sports betting content.
About the tournament
The attention of the golf world has been on Scotland the last two weeks and it concluded with a magical final nine holes from Cameron Smith to win The Open Championship, the year’s final major championship.
Now the PGA TOUR schedule resumes in Minnesota for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. It’s a par 71 course that measures 7,431 yards. This is only the fourth edition of this event after it made its debut in 2019.
This is a weak field, but that’s not a surprise the week after a major that was played on another continent. The existence of LIV Golf also has an impact, as Dustin Johnson, Louis Oosthuizen, Patrick Reed and Sergio Garcia played in Minnesota last year, but have since defected to LIV. The 2019 3M Open champion Matthew Wolff is another name that is part of LIV who depletes the strength of the field.
Top of the board
Tony Finau (14/1), Hideki Matsuyama (16/1) and Sungjae Im (16/1) headline the field this week. All three are coming over from Scotland after making the cut at The Open Championship, but were never in contention to win. Travel and motivational uncertainty for all three will have me bypassing the trio in the outright market.
The next group of players all interest me, as there are five players who are in strong form and have a real chance to win in this field. Maverick McNealy (22/1), Adam Hadwin (25/1), Cam Davis (25/1), Davis Riley (25/1) and Sahith Theegala (25/1) are all players I considered in my early research.
McNealy has three top-16 finishes the last three weeks on the PGA TOUR and finished tied for 16th last year in his 3M Open debut. Hadwin was one of the betting favorites three weeks ago at the John Deere Classic, but missed the cut. The Canadian has found success in Minnesota, finishing fourth in 2019 and tied for sixth last year. Theegala is the only one from the aforementioned group that played The Open Championship, so I’ll pass on betting him in this event because of the travel.
Cam Davis and Davis Riley are my preferred selections from this bunch, and I made bets on them Monday. Davis has played in all three 3M Opens and has made the cut twice, finishing 12th in 2020 and 28th a year ago. The Australian won the Rocket Mortgage Classic last year in Detroit, and players who have played well at that event have had success at TPC Twin Cities.
Riley has been a player I have bet several times this spring, and from May to early June, he had five top-13 finishes. We last saw Riley a month ago at the Travelers Championship where he couldn’t make a putt. After missing the events in Scotland, I’m going to take a chance on the talented rookie to maybe pull a Matthew Wolff and have his breakthrough win at the 3M Open.
Another bet I made on Monday was on Brendan Steele (35/1). Steele popped two months ago at the PGA Championship by finishing tied for ninth and ranking fourth in strokes gained approach. He continued his strong approach play in June at the Memorial where he finished tied for 10th. If Steele can putt field-average for the week, I believe he’ll be able to contend.
Mid-range targets and longshots
A player who can follow the Matthew Wolff path of winning in one of his first PGA TOUR starts is Chris Gotterup (40/1). The 22-year-old turned pro this summer and played at the U.S. Open. He became a hot name in the golf betting community when he finished tied for fourth at the John Deere Classic three weeks ago. He was one of the betting favorites two weeks ago at the Barbasol Championship, but he missed the cut, so he could be in a good bounce-back spot with less expectations.
I’ll go back to two players I bet three weeks ago at the John Deere Classic in Doug Ghim (80/1) and Hayden Buckley (100/1). Ghim missed the cut at that event in Illinois and then went to the Scottish Open the next week and finished tied for 16th in a much stronger field. Buckley has made three-straight cuts after having a strong showing at the U.S. Open, and I want to continue betting him in this price range.