During the 2022 golf season, Stadium sports betting analyst Nate Jacobson will share his betting targets each week using odds as of Tuesday morning. Here are his thoughts on this week’s American Express.
Note: Nate will tweet out his official bets when they are placed before the event. He also discusses his bets for golf and other sports on the Sharp Lessons podcast that drops every Wednesday and Friday. Subscribe on Spotify and Apple for episodes and follow Stadium Bets on Twitter for more sports betting content.
About the tournament
After two tournaments in Hawaii, the PGA TOUR heads to California for the next three events. This week we have the uniquely-formatted American Express at PGA West. Unlike a normal tournament, where there is a cut after the second round, the cut at this event is after the third round. The other different wrinkle to this tournament is it’s played across three different courses (Stadium Course, Nicklaus Course and La Quinta). Each player will play a round at the three courses and the final round will take place at the Stadium Course on Sunday. There is also a Pro-Am element to the tournament, which prolongs the rounds on the first three days.
I will likely scale back my bets before the tournament and look to take a shot on a few golfers in live betting. The Nicklaus Course and La Quinta typically play easier than the Stadium Course, so I might bet on a player after their Stadium Course round with the idea that they got the tougher course out of the way and I could find a better number on that player after the tournament begins.
Top of the board
There are two clear favorites in this event with Jon Rahm (6/1) and Patrick Cantlay (9/1) in their own tier on the oddsboard. Both are justifiably priced because of their success in California and strong form to end last season. However, I have no interest in betting either player before the tournament at these prices.
My decision at the top of the board is to start my card with Sungjae Im (22/1), Corey Conners (25/1) or Abraham Ancer (30/1). I may end up picking two of these three depending on which course they start at.
Im is coming off a missed cut at last week’s Sony Open, but he was in good form going into that event and has three top-12 finishes in his only appearances at PGA West. Im plays frequently, so getting two rounds off last week could be a positive to bounce back for this tournament.
Conners is a player I bet on last week and he played how I expected he would in his 11th-place finish. He finished seventh in the field in strokes gained approach and had a decent week putting for his standards. I liked him last week and there’s no reason to stray away unless his odds get shorter.
Ancer is another player who missed the cut at the Sony Open and he had an awful showing at the Tournament of Champions a week prior. Ancer finished second at this event in 2020 and tied for fifth last season, so this could be a buy low and bounce-back spot for him.
Mid-range targets
While I have a tough decision to make at the top, I can say with confidence I’ll be betting on Will Zalatoris (40/1). He’s a player I often backed last season because of his elite iron play. Zalatoris has never played this event, but he showed up to many courses for the first time last season and had success. I believe Zalatoris is undervalued in this field, and I’m willing to take a chance on him to get his first PGA TOUR win.
If I don’t end up picking two players from the top of the board section, I will consider two other players in the mid-range. The decision will come down to betting Luke List (66/1) and/or Jhonattan Vegas (66/1). Both players finished well in tournaments this past fall and are making their 2022 debuts. Both fit the mold of players who are great tee-to-green and can contend if they putt field average.
Longshots
The player that stands out in this range is Lucas Glover (80/1). He led the Sony Open in strokes gained approach and finished tied for fifth this past week. I would’ve preferred if he didn’t close with a final-round 65, so he would be more under the radar, but I can’t pass on him after the way he struck the ball with his irons.
Another deeper shot is Doug Ghim (125/1). He’s another player I bet often last season and finished tied for fifth at this event last year.
