2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Picks

During the 2022 golf season, Stadium sports betting analyst Nate Jacobson will share his betting targets each week using odds as of Tuesday morning. Here are his thoughts on this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Note: Nate will tweet out his official bets when they are placed before the event. He also discusses his bets in all sports on the Sharp Lessons podcast. Subscribe on Spotify and Apple for episodes and follow Stadium Bets on Twitter for more sports betting content.

About the tournament

The Florida swing on the PGA TOUR schedule is underway and Orlando is the next stop for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Just like the Genesis Invitational two weeks ago, there are only 120 players in the field and the purse for the event is $12 million. The money and playing in the late Arnold Palmer’s tournament attracts a strong field to Bay Hill ahead of next week’s PLAYERS Championship.

Top of the board

Jon Rahm (8/1) clocks in as the favorite for this event. The No. 1 player in the world hasn’t won since the U.S. Open last June, but his underlying statistics were very strong on the west coast swing of this season. If Rahm can just have an average putting week, he’ll win a tournament soon. I’m going to pass on him at this price in a state he’s never won and take a serious look at the player right behind him on the oddsboard.

With my Honda Classic outright bets out of contention to win by the weekend, I started my research for this event on Saturday. The name that jumped out to me to win this event was Rory McIlroy (11/1). It’s easy to like McIlroy at this event based on his course history at Bay Hill. He won the tournament in 2018 and has finished 11th place or better in sixth of his seven appearances at this event. McIlroy is coming off a 10th-place finish in his first North American start of the season at the Genesis and he has a third place finish in Dubai in January. I was hoping McIlroy would be priced around 14/1, but I’m not surprised he’s shorter than that given his success in Orlando. For now, I’m going to pass on betting McIlroy at this price and hope to get a better number later in the tournament.

The next two players I’m looking to bet are Sungjae Im (25 /1) and Will Zalatoris (25/1). Im is coming into this event off a missed cut at the Honda Classic. He topped the oddsboard last week, so this could be a good buy-low spot for a player with a pair of third-place finishes at this event. He missed the cut at the Sony Open in mid-January and bounced back the next two weeks with 11th- and sixth-place finishes the next two weeks, so I’m not worried about his short week at Honda.

Zalatoris was a player I bet at this tournament last season as he was breaking on to the scene. He finished tied for 10th and was held back by his putter. This January, he had a sixth-place finish and lost in a playoff at the Farmers Insurance Open. Zalatoris then missed the next two events with COVID, but returned for the Genesis and finished 26th.

Mid-range targets

My first bet of the week came in this range on Monday morning. Billy Horschel (40/1) had a lot of betting support last week at the Honda Classic and was bet down to 20/1 before Thursday morning. I liked the Florida native, but couldn’t get around betting him at that price. Horschel bounced back from a bad second round to finish 16th, and ranked both fifth in the field in strokes gained off the tee and approach. He’s a bet for me at 40/1 or better.

Sam Burns (40/1) is a player I haven’t bet on this season because he’s been priced at much shorter odds, but have kept an eye on him because I had high expectations for him this year. He missed the cut at his last three events and now there’s a drift in his odds, which creates a potential buy-low spot. Maybe shifting coasts can spark Burns’ game, as he won the Valspar in Florida last year.

Corey Conners (66/1) is a player I have bet on multiple times this season and he trended poorly towards the end of the west coast swing. I’m hoping the Florida swing can get his game going and he finished third in this tournament last season.

Longshots

The potential for high winds at this event can lead to variance and give a chance to a longshot. We saw that last week at Honda when Sepp Straka came out of nowhere to win the first Florida event of the year.

The longshot that sticks out to me is Sebastian Munoz (100/1), who is coming off two strong ball-striking weeks at Waste Management and Genesis. He was fourth in the field in strokes gained tee-to-green behind Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm at TPC Scottsdale. He followed that up by leading the field in strokes gained off the tee at Riviera. Munoz is still going under the radar because he finished 23rd and 21st respectively at those events due to struggles with his putter. If he can flip his putting for one week and continue the ball striking, maybe he can be in the mix on Sunday.

Other players I’m targeting who have had good recent ball-striking performances, but have been let down by their short games are Adam Svensson (125/1) and Paton Kizzire (150/1).