During the 2022 golf season, Stadium sports betting analyst Nate Jacobson will share his betting targets each week using odds as of Tuesday morning. Here are his thoughts on this week’s Farmers Insurance Open.
Note: Nate will tweet out his official bets when they are placed before the event. He also discusses his bets for golf and other sports on the Sharp Lessons podcast that drops every Wednesday and Friday. Subscribe on Spotify and Apple for episodes and follow Stadium Bets on Twitter for more sports betting content.
About the tournament
The golf schedule heats up with a loaded field for the Farmers Insurance Open. This tournament usually falls the weekend between the NFL Conference Championship Games and the Super Bowl, so there’s typically a lot of attention for the event near San Diego. Because of the changes in the NFL playoff schedule, the conference titles will be played this Sunday. The golf tournament will start a day early on Wednesday so it concludes on Saturday, and doesn’t have to compete for attention with NFL on Sunday.
This tournament is played on two courses at Torrey Pines. Each player will play a round at Torrey Pines South and North on the first two days, and the final two rounds will be played on the South Course after the normal 36-hole cut. The North Course is about 500 yards shorter than the South, so it plays easier. When it comes to outright betting, I will look to bet on players whose first round is at the North Course before the event begins. If I like a player who starts the tournament on the South Course, I will wait until Wednesday night or Thursday morning to bet an outright on that player.
It’s also worth noting the U.S. Open was played at the Torrey Pines South Course last June. I would be cautious factoring that tournament into course history research for this event because the USGA sets the course up to play tougher than the setup for the Farmers Insurance Open.
Top of the board
I mentioned the field is loaded and you can tell by the top of the odds board with Jon Rahm (7/1), Justin Thomas (14/1), Xander Schauffele (16/1), Hideki Matsuyama (18/1), Dustin Johnson (20/1) and Bryson DeChambeau (20/1) headlining the group. Johnson would be the name I’d consider in this bunch. He hasn’t played since October, but has proven in the past week he doesn’t need good form to contend and has a strong history at California courses.
Sam Burns (25/1) is a name I was thinking about at this event and I backed him at Torrey Pines last season at 100/1. Burns did everything I asked from him by being in the final group on Sunday, but a final-round 75 knocked him down to a tied for 18th finish. I might go back to Burns this week, even at a much shorter number than he was 12 months ago.
A player that pops out for me is Tony Finau (25/1). He has an outstanding course history in this event, with his worst finish being 13th in the last five years. The other four were all top-6 finishes. He was a bet for me at the U.S. Open last year at Torrey Pines, where he missed the cut, but I don’t put too much weight into that because of the USGA setup. Finau will play at the North Course on Wednesday, so hopefully he can post a good number before getting to the South Course, which is a track the suits his game perfectly.
Mid-range targets
When there are so many big names in the field, there are some attractive options that get pushed down the board and fall into a range I want to fire. Players I’m considering at 66/1 are Matthew Wolff, Joaquin Niemann, Ryan Palmer, Maverick McNealy and Luke List.
Wolff flashed some form in the fall and was a popular name last week at the American Express. The Southern California native had a disastrous opening round where he shot a 78, but bounced back with a second-round 67 before ultimately missing the cut. I’m interested in him at double the odds as he was last week.
Niemann is making his 2022 debut, and I expect him to have a breakout season. He’s a great ball striker that can play well at long courses.
McNealy and Palmer finished first and third, respectively, in strokes gained off the tee at the Sony Open two weeks ago. McNealy is usually a strong putter, but was off with his short game in Hawaii. Palmer has a pair of runner-up finishes at the Farmers in 2018 and 2021. Both players start at the North Course, so they’ll be pre-tournament bets for me.
List is a player I bet last week at the American Express and will consider going back to him. He finished tied for 10th at this event last year and has a strong course history.
Longshots
Mito Pereira (80/1) is making his 2022 debut and played well in limited appearances last season. His strokes gained approach metrics popped at three events in September and October. I’m going to take advantage of betting him at a big number before he becomes a more well-known name in the golf world.
Kyle Stanley (150/1) gained 6.5 strokes on approach at the Sony Open. He never putts well, but at this price I’m willing to consider him. He has a mixed bag of results at Torrey Pines with a tied for 18th place finish last season and he lost in a playoff 10 years ago.
