During the 2022 golf season, Stadium sports betting analyst Nate Jacobson will share his betting targets each week using odds as of Tuesday morning. Here are his thoughts on this week’s Honda Classic.
Note: Nate will tweet out his official bets when they are placed before the event. He also discusses his bets in all sports on the Sharp Lessons podcast. Subscribe on Spotify and Apple for episodes and follow Stadium Bets on Twitter for more sports betting content.
About the tournament
The PGA TOUR schedule shifts from the west coast to Florida, as the next four tournaments will be played in that state. After having a star-studded field at last week’s Genesis Invitational, the Honda Classic takes a dip in field strength with only six of the top 25 players in the Official Golf World Rankings teeing it up at PGA National this week.
PGA National is a very tough course and there’s a wide range of players that can win at this tournament. The amount of water on the course and wind in Palm Beach Gardens makes this a tough event to predict. I’m going to take a very cautious approach with betting this week, and leave room on my betting card to add a player or two between rounds at hopefully better numbers than their pre-tournament odds.
Top of the board
I have interest at a number of players at the top of the betting board, but I don’t have much confidence in betting anyone at their current numbers. The favorite is Sungjae Im (12/1), who is a winner at this event in 2020, which was the second to last PGA TOUR event before COVID-19 paused the season for three months. I like Im, especially at this course, but can’t get behind him at this short of a number.
Daniel Berger (16/1) is a player that always interests me, especially in his home state of Florida. But he’s been dealing with a back injury that caused him to pull out of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and he missed the cut the next week at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
Obviously I’m a fan of Joaquin Niemann (18/1) after I tipped him last week and he won the Genesis Invitational. But I’ll look to fade him in full-tournament matchups after he won wire-to-wire in Los Angeles while staving off some of the best players in the world. I’m guessing the weekend took an emotional toll after he got off to such a good start and I can see a letdown week for the Chilean.
Tommy Fleetwood (22/1) and Shane Lowry (28/1) are two European players making their first starts on the PGA TOUR this year, and I circled both in my initial research on Sunday. Fleetwood finished fourth in 2018 and third in 2020 in his only two appearances at this event. Lowry is best suited for shorter courses where the wind is a factor. But at these numbers, I’m not going to get involved before the tournament.
The first player I’m giving a hard look towards is Billy Horschel (22/1). The Florida native and former University of Florida player has two top-eight finishes at this event in 2016 and 2017. More importantly, he comes in with great form after finishing 11th at the Farmers Insurance Open in January and sixth at Waste Management two weeks ago. If Horschel was at 28/1, I would’ve bet him right away, but now at 22/1 I’m going to wait to see if there’s a drift on his odds before the tournament or after the first round.
Keith Mitchell (33/1) is another former Honda Classic winner I gave a look towards because of his strong showings on the west coast swing. The number is a little too short for me and I would prefer betting on Alex Noren (35/1). Noren has a track record of playing tough courses well and finished third at this event in 2018. He flashed two weeks ago in Arizona by finishing tied for sixth with Horschel. The Swede is definitely in consideration this week.
Mid-range targets
This is the part of the board I like to target after hitting both Tom Hoge and Niemann in this range over the last three weeks. Two players I’ll definitely have bets on are Gary Woodland (50/1) and Russell Knox (50/1).
Woodland has been a shell of his old self since undergoing hip surgery and returning a year ago. He doesn’t have good form coming into this event, after missing two of three cuts on the west coast swing. But he does have a solid course history at PGA National, including a runner-up finish in 2017 and an eighth place finish in 2020 (he entered that tournament at 22/1). I’m willing to take a shot at Woodland at this price and make sure to shop around for the best number.
Knox has a spotty recent course history at Honda, as he’s missed the weekend in four of his last five appearances at PGA National. But looking deeper, he lost in a four-man playoff here in 2014 and followed that up with a third place finish in 2015. What gets me on to Knox for this event is his solid play to start this year. He finished seventh at the Sony Open, and had three strong showings with his irons in the last three weeks. I’m hoping the Scot can carry over his recent form to Florida and figure out a course he used to play well at.
Other considerations in this range are Matt Jones (40/1), Aaron Wise (50/1) and Lucas Glover (66/1). Jones won this event last season by five strokes after amazingly posting a first-round 61. I usually avoid betting players trying to defend at a tournament, but he finished second in the field at Genesis in strokes gained tee-to-green, which yielded a 15th place finish.
Wise was a trendy pick at some west coast events over the past few weeks and disappointed with a pair of missed cuts. He’s played well at Honda in his three starts, so maybe switching coasts will turn around his results.
Glover is a player I bet twice already this season in California and he has some strong recent finishes at Honda, including a fourth place in 2019.
Longshots
I can see the winner coming from way down the board with a lot of variance at this course and not many elite players in the field. The name that sticks out for me is Garrick Higgo (80/1). This might be a sentimental bet for me because I took a shot at him at the Palmetto Championship last June and he won. The 22-year-old South African also won twice on the European Tour last year and fared well at Waste Management two weeks ago by finishing in 21st place.
Another deep shot I have circled is Harry Higgs (125/1). He was first in the field in strokes gained approach at Honda last season and made the cut in his first appearance at PGA National the year prior.
