During the 2022 golf season, Stadium sports betting analyst Nate Jacobson will share his betting targets each week using odds as of Tuesday morning. Here are his thoughts on this week’s John Deere Classic.
Note: Nate will tweet out his official bets when they are placed before the event. He also discusses his bets in all sports on the Sharp Lessons podcast. Subscribe on Spotify and Apple for episodes and follow Stadium Bets on Twitter for more sports betting content.
About the tournament
The PGA TOUR goes from the Northeast to the Midwest for the John Deere Classic in Silvis, IL near the Illinois and Iowa border. The event is played at TPC Deere Run and it’s a par 71 course that measures over 7,200 in length.
The field for the John Deere Classic is one of the weakest of the season. There are no players in the top 50 of the Official Golf World Rankings after Daniel Berger announced on Monday that he is withdrawing from the tournament. But there’s still a betting board for this event and an opportunity to win money, so let’s look closer at the field.
Top of the board
Berger opened as the favorite or co-favorite on Monday morning, so his withdrawal caused a ripple effect on the outright oddsboard. Webb Simpson (14/1) is currently the favorite for the event, despite not being in the best form of his career.
Sahith Theegala (25/1) was a player I would’ve been interested in betting at a better number (and if he didn’t squander a golden opportunity to win the Travelers). Theegala had a one-shot lead going into the final hole on Sunday, and was doomed by multiple mistakes that led to a double-bogey. I’m not sure how Theegala will bounce back from a tough loss, so he’s a pass for me this week.
The player I have the most interest in near the top is Maverick McNealy (33/1). The 26-year-old is still looking for his first PGA TOUR win, but I believe he’s a better player than a lot of others with comparable odds in the field. McNealy consistently made cuts in the early part of the season, but has missed two cuts in his last two starts. He missed the cut at the Travelers after an uncharacteristically bad putting week. I like this spot for McNealy to bounce back at an event he finished tied for 18th last year.
Mid-range targets
Adam Schenk and Doug Ghim at 50/1 are my preferred choices from players priced between 40/1 and 66/1.
I wrote about Schenk as a deep longshot in my U.S. Open article and then bet him last week at the Travelers when he was 200/1. 50/1 is obviously not as good of a price, but I’m fine with taking the plunge in this field. Schenk has course history on his side with a tied-for-sixth-place finish in 2019 and then a tied-for-fourth-place finish last year.
Ghim is an Illinois native that I bet often last year, including at this event. He finished tied for 18th in his first John Deere Classic about 12 months ago and ranked second in the field in strokes gained approach. Ghim has been quiet for most of 2022 and off my betting radar, but he did finish tied for 18th at the RBC Canadian Open earlier this month.
Longshots
With not many standout players in this field, don’t be afraid to take a few deeper shots this week.
Hayden Buckley (100/1) will be a bet for me after he made some noise at the U.S. Open. Buckley finished tied for 14th in his second career major start and was in the second-to-last pairing in the third round with Jon Rahm on Saturday. Buckley shot a five-over par 75 on Saturday to fade down the leaderboard, but that was the day many players struggled and maybe the spotlight was too big for the 26-year-old. I was impressed that Buckley made the cut at the Travelers in what I expected to be a letdown tournament.
I’ll also go back to Joseph Bramlett (150/1) after betting him last week at the Travelers. Bramlett made the cut in Connecticut coming off a strong tee-to-green week at the U.S. Open and his ball-striking numbers have been strong for most of 2022.
