2022 Mexico Open Betting Picks

During the 2022 golf season, Stadium sports betting analyst Nate Jacobson will share his betting targets each week using odds as of Tuesday morning. Here are his thoughts on this week’s Mexico Open.

Note: Nate will tweet out his official bets when they are placed before the event. He also discusses his bets in all sports on the Sharp Lessons podcast. Subscribe on Spotify and Apple for episodes and follow Stadium Bets on Twitter for more sports betting content.

About the tournament

After a team event in Louisiana last week, the PGA TOUR debuts a new event in Mexico this week. The Mexico Open will be played at Vidanta Vallarta, which is a par 71 course that measures 7,456 yards.

There are a lot of unknowns about this tournament because it’s the first time the event is being played. My strategy for this week is to pick a few players who just had good finishes, as well as players I have bet on recently. I also want to save money to make a bet later in the weekend if I think there’s a good opportunity.

Top of the board

It’s hard to handicap this tournament because of the weak field. Jon Rahm tops the board at +450. Then there’s a big drop-off to the next tier of players after Daniel Berger withdrew from the tournament on Monday.

Abraham Ancer (16/1), Tony Finau (20/1), Aaron Wise (22/1), Gary Woodland (22/1), Kevin Na (28/1) and Sebastian Munoz (33/1) are some of the names that make up the next tier of players. These are all golfers that I’ll keep an eye on throughout the tournament, and I’ll maybe make an in-play bet if they get off to a slow start.

Mid-range targets

The first player that I was interested in when I looked at the oddsboard this week was Aaron Rai (50/1). Rai was part of the team with David Lipsky who finished tied for fourth last week at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. He’s a player I have bet on multiple times this year, and I want to give him another shot in this field. He also tied for sixth at the Farmers Insurance Open in January.

My next target this week is Cameron Champ (50/1). Champ has a high ceiling with three career wins on the PGA TOUR and an unexpected tied for 10th finish at the Masters in his last start. But he also has a low floor with plenty of missed cuts and non-competitive finishes mixed between his wins. I’m willing to take a chance on Champ at this number in this field, and his driving distance should help him out around Vidanta Vallarta.

Another player who might have a high upside and finished tied for fourth in New Orleans is Davis Riley (50/1). He played with Will Zalatoris last week, and the pair had a strong Sunday. Riley put himself on the map when he lost in a playoff to Sam Burns at the Valspar Championship last month.

Longshots

My list of longshots include David Lipsky (80/1), Brian Stuard (100/1), Adam Svensson (100/1)Austin Smotherman (125/1) and Kurt Kitayama (150/1).

I want to at least consider Lipsky because he was teamed up with Rai last week. Stuard hasn’t played well recently, but had strong strokes-gained-approach numbers at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago. Svensson and Smotherman have had strong ball striking performances in the 2022 calendar year, while Kitayama is another upside flyer, who finished in third place at the Honda Classic.