During the 2022 golf season, Stadium sports betting analyst Nate Jacobson will share his betting targets each week using odds as of Tuesday morning. Here are his thoughts on this week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Note: Nate will tweet out his official bets when they are placed before the event. He also discusses his bets in all sports on the Sharp Lessons podcast. Subscribe on Spotify and Apple for episodes and follow Stadium Bets on Twitter for more sports betting content.
About the tournament
The PGA TOUR stays in the Midwest for the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit. This is the fourth edition of this event being played at the Detroit Golf Club, and this year, the tournament falls later on the calendar as the PGA regular season comes to a close next week at the Wyndham Championship.
Top of the board
The field strength in Detroit this week is slightly better than what we saw in the 3M Open, with Patrick Cantlay (10/1), Will Zalatoris (16/1), Cameron Young (20/1) and Max Homa (25/1) joining Tony Finau (14/1) at the top of the board. Finau won last week in Minnesota where he ranked first in the field in strokes gained tee-to-green.
I’m likely going to pass on all those players because of their price. Cantlay is the deserved favorite, but I rarely bet that short of numbers in a full-field golf tournament before it begins. Zalatoris is a favorite of mine, but I would prefer betting him at twice the price in a major instead of this number. Cameron Young finished second at The Open Championship, but he was 100/1 in that event, so I would be buying him at his peak if I were to bet on him. If he instead had an average performance in Scotland, Young would probably be in the 33/1 to 40/1 range.
Mid-range targets
The player that sticks out for me as being underpriced is Gary Woodland (50/1). In a weaker field like this, I would’ve expected a player with Woodland’s pedigree at around 33/1. He’s been inconsistent recently, but did finish tied for 10th at the U.S. Open in June and had a strong first round at the Scottish Open earlier this month. Woodland has missed the cut in both his starts at the Detroit Country Club, but last year Cam Davis won this event after missing the cut twice, so there has been a lot of randomness at this course. Woodland’s poor course history and recent missed cuts create an opportunity to bet on him at a good price.
I’m going to go back to Brendan Steele (66/1) after betting on him last week at 35/1. Steele missed the cut after two poor rounds with his putter in Minnesota. Steele ranked fourth in the field in strokes gained tee-to-green in the first round, so his ball-striking isn’t a concern. I’m going to bet on Steele again at a more advantageous number and hope for positive putting regression.
Last year in Detroit, Troy Merritt (66/1) lost in a playoff to Cam Davis and Joaquin Niemann. Merritt also tied for eighth place at this event in 2020 and led last week’s 3M Open in strokes gained off the tee. All that information is enough of a reason to bet Merritt this week.
Longshots
I’m going to have a lot of longshot bets this week since I’m not planning to bet anyone at the top of the board.
Greyson Sigg (80/1), Stewart Cink (100/1), Hayden Buckley (150/1), Lee Hodges (150/1) and Cameron Percy (200/1) all had strong strokes gained approach at the 3M Open. I might bet on all of them because I don’t have to risk a lot of money at their prices, and hopefully one of them has a great week on the greens.
Two other high upside players I like this week are Luke List (80/1) and Kurt Kitayama (100/1).
List has a win way back in January at the Farmers Insurance Open. He missed the cut at both events in Scotland earlier this month, but ranked first in the field in strokes gained approach at the Travelers Championship and finished tied for 19th at that event last month.
Kitayama has three top-three finishes in the last five months, including finishing second at the Scottish Open three weeks ago. He made the cut at The Open Championship after a strong first round, and he’s worth a bet at this number.
