During the 2022 golf season, Stadium sports betting analyst Nate Jacobson will share his betting targets each week using odds as of Tuesday morning. Here are his thoughts on this week’s THE PLAYERS Championship.
Note: Nate will tweet out his official bets when they are placed before the event. He also discusses his bets in all sports on the Sharp Lessons podcast. Subscribe on Spotify and Apple for episodes and follow Stadium Bets on Twitter for more sports betting content.
About the tournament
The PGA TOUR goes from Orlando to the Jacksonville area for THE PLAYERS Championship, which is also known as the fifth major in golf. One of the strongest fields of the year descends on TPC Sawgrass and players who make the cut are paid handsomely with a $20 million purse for this event, which is up from the $15 million it was last season.
TPC Sawgrass is a short par 72 course (7,189 yards) with water all over. It was designed by famous golf course designer Pete Dye and is one of several courses of his in the regular rotation on TOUR. Just like the last two tournaments in Florida, there is a lot of randomness in this event, especially when the wind picks up. The tournament moved from May to March in 2019 to accommodate the PGA Championship being held in May. Because of the variance of this event and its move on the calendar, I don’t weigh course history as much when doing my research for THE PLAYERS.
One thing to consider before betting this week is the weather, where rain and/or high winds are expected from Thursday-Saturday in Jacksonville. The weather is predicted to cool down on Sunday when the final round is scheduled, but that could be in doubt if rain postpones play.
Top of the board
I’m going to bypass betting on the first five names in the odds in Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland. Instead I started my card with Patrick Cantlay (20/1), who seems underpriced when you consider his odds at courses on the west coast swing and his recent form. In January and February, Cantlay was 9/1 at the American Express, +650 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 14/1 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and 12/1 at the Genesis Invitational. His results in those four tournaments in order were ninth, fourth, second (lost in playoff) and 33rd place. I’ll give him a pass for struggling at the Genesis because he was just coming off a playoff loss and I believe he should be priced around the same tier as Rahm, Morikawa and Thomas.
One reason for the drift could be Cantlay’s track record at Sawgrass, where he has missed the cut the last two times, and his other two finishes are 22nd and 23rd in 2017 and 2018, respectively. But he has had success at the RBC Heritage and Travelers Championship, which are played on Pete Dye courses. Cantlay was a player I identified for this event weeks ago and was glad to see his number stay in this range.
The next player I bet on is Hideki Matsuyama (28/1). The reigning Masters champion has two top-eight finishes at Sawgrass, but his best performance at the course can’t be found in the record books. He shot a first-round 63 on the Thursday of the 2020 tournament, which tied the course record. However, the event was canceled the next day because of COVID-19 and it was never rescheduled. Matsuyama was a non-factor to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational this past weekend, but he was one of four players to shoot under par in very tough conditions in Sunday’s final round. That could suit him well if wind is a factor this week.
The last time we saw Daniel Berger (28/1), he squandered a five-stroke lead going into the final 18 holes of the Honda Classic. It was a tough watch for anyone who bet Berger that week, but now we can get the Florida native at a discounted number as opposed to if he won that tournament. He is a bet for me and I would take it as soon as possible because his number shortened at several sportsbooks on Tuesday morning.
Mid-range targets
When Brooks Koepka (40/1) falls into this price range for a tournament with a lot of money on the line, I almost always automatically bet on him. It happened last month at Waste Management when he drifted to 40/1 and ended up finishing tied for third at a course he’s won at twice. It also happened at last year’s PGA Championship and when the four-time major winner was ousted by Phil Mickelson. In a tournament with a lot of money and pride at stake, I took another shot at Koepka at these odds. His best finish at Sawgrass is 11th and he finished 16th at the Honda Classic two events ago.
One more guy in this range I’ll consider is Paul Casey (66/1). The Englishman had a nice first two rounds at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then totally ejected on the weekend, which concluded with a final-round 83. But a lot of players struggled this past weekend in Orlando, so I can see him bounce back and I like the number.
Longshots
Longshots are very live to win THE PLAYERS Championship and that’s one reason it’s a hard event to predict. I have a long list of players I considered, but the one that sticks out as a potential outright bet is Alex Noren (80/1). I bet on Noren two weeks ago at the Honda Classic because of his good recent finishes and his ability to play well in tough conditions. He didn’t contend to win at PGA National, but he finished tied for fifth after a workmanlike Sunday where he avoided mistakes. That style of play is an appealing reason to go back to the Swede this week.
