During the 2022 golf season, Stadium sports betting analyst Nate Jacobson will share his betting targets each week. Here are his thoughts on this week’s Valspar Championship.
Note: Nate will tweet out his official bets when they are placed before the event. He also discusses his bets in all sports on the Sharp Lessons podcast. Subscribe on Spotify and Apple for episodes and follow Stadium Bets on Twitter for more sports betting content.
About the tournament
After stops all around the state, the Florida swing concludes this week in the Tampa Bay area for the Valspar Championship on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort. The quality of the field takes a dip compared to last week’s PLAYERS Championship, but the event was still able to draw five of the top-10 players in the Official Golf World Rankings.
The biggest factor when handicapping this tournament is trying to figure out how to apply information from this past week’s PLAYERS Championship. The event ended late on Monday after multiple weather delays in the first few days of the tournament. Heavy winds on Saturday skewed the results for numerous star players, while others played nearly three rounds of golf within a 36-hour window on Sunday and Monday.
I’m personally not going to read too much into the statistics because so much of the results were based on the weather. That said, I did try to target players who missed the cut and avoided playing a lot of golf in a short amount of time.
Top of the board
The five top players in the rankings also occupy the top five spots on the betting board in Justin Thomas (9/1), Viktor Hovland (10/1), Collin Morikawa (11/1), Dustin Johnson (14/1) and Xander Schauffele (18/1). I was expecting one or two of these players to withdraw their commitment to this event based on the extra day at THE PLAYERS, but as of this writing, they are all in the field.
I’ll pass on all five of these players and take a stand on Tyrrell Hatton (22/1) as my top bet of the week. Hatton was a player I had an eye on at this event last season when it was played in April, before he withdrew because of a positive COVID-19 test. Hatton finished tied for second at the Arnold Palmer Invitational two weeks ago and tied for 13th at THE PLAYERS. He’s also won in Florida before at the Arnold Palmer Invitational two years ago. The good form and history at Florida is enough for me to bet on the Englishman.
My next choice is Matthew Fitzpatrick (25/1). He’s a player I rarely bet on, but the situation sets up well for him coming off a missed cut at THE PLAYERS. Fitzpatrick has three top-10 finishes in his other North American starts in 2022, including a ninth-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which is a tournament he always plays well at. I like Fitzpatrick to bounce back and contend at another Florida event.
Mid-range targets
Alex Noren (50/1), Gary Woodland (50/1) and Russell Knox (66/1) were all players I bet at the Honda Classic, and I’ll roll with them again.
Noren ended up being on the fortunate draw of the worst weather conditions, but he also had to play his last three rounds on Sunday and Monday. That’s a lot of golf, which has me hesitant to bet on him, but I don’t want to miss out on a potential win after betting on him twice in Florida.
Woodland is my favorite bet for this range, as he’s coming off a missed cut last week. Before that, he finished tied for fifth with Noren at the Honda and fifth at the Arnold Palmer. Woodland was in position to win the Arnold Palmer until he had late trouble in a bunker and faded. He also won at Copperhead, although it was in 2011 and the tournament was called the Transitions Championship.
Knox finished tied for sixth this past weekend at THE PLAYERS, has a solid course history in this spot and has played well with his irons in 2022.
