During the 2023 golf season, Stadium sports betting analyst Nate Jacobson will share his betting targets each week. Here are his thoughts on this week’s American Express.
Note: Nate will tweet out his official bets when they are placed before the event. He also discusses his bets in all sports on the Sharp Lessons podcast. Subscribe on Spotify and Apple for episodes and follow Stadium Bets on Twitter for more sports betting content.
About the Tournament
The PGA TOUR heads to California for the next three tournaments, and the first stop is the American Express. This tournament is different than most full-field events because it is played on three different courses. Each player will play a round on all three courses before a cut is made after 54 holes (instead of the normal cut after Friday’s second round). Whoever makes the cut will play the final round at the PGA West Stadium Course.
Top of the Board
The field for this event usually isn’t strong, but I am impressed with some of the names making the trip to La Quinta. Jon Rahm tops the oddsboard at 6/1, and the Spaniard won this event in 2018 when it was called the CareerBuilder Challenge (he also won the Tournament of Champions two weeks ago). He’s followed by Scottie Scheffler (10/1), Patrick Cantlay (11/1) and Tony Finau (14/1). Cantlay and Finau are intriguing names whenever they play in California, so I might look to bet one of those players live at a better number after the tournament begins.
Sungjae Im, Will Zalatoris, Xander Schauffele, Cameron Young and Tom Kim make up the next range of players in this impressive field. Young (22/1) is the player that stands out for me, as he’s primed to record his first PGA TOUR win. Young played in this event for the first time last year when he was an unknown rookie. He had his breakout tournament a month later at the Genesis Invitational in California and recorded five more top-three finishes, highlighted by second place at The Open.
Mid-Range Targets
I bet on Cam Davis (50/1) at the Sony Open last week, and I’m going to go back to the Aussie after his tied-for-32nd-place finish in Hawaii. The advanced stats indicate that Davis was one of the best in the field in strokes gained off the tee — his putter just let him down. Davis finished third at this event the last time he played it two years ago.
Another intriguing player hunting his first PGA TOUR win is Sahith Theegala (60/1). His breakout performance was at the Waste Management Phoenix Open last season, where he finished tied for third. This past June he was ousted by Schauffele at the Travelers Championship, and racked up three top-six finishes in the fall. Theegala’s recent form and ability to play well in strong fields are why he’s a bet at this number.
Longshots
In recent years, longshots have found the winner’s circle at this event. That being said, I’m going to go back to two players that I bet last week in Keith Mitchell (100/1) and Will Gordon (125/1).
Mitchell missed the cut last week after shooting a first-round 74, but he bounced back nicely on Friday, falling short of the cut by two strokes. Gordon looked like he could be a threat to win the Sony Open after carding a third-round 63. But a bogey on four of the first five holes on Sunday knocked him out of contention, and he ended up finishing tied for 28th. At these numbers, it’s an easy decision to bet on both again.
Luke List (150/1) is the other longshot that I like. It’s been nearly a year since List won the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego — but going into that event he finished tied for 22nd at the American Express a week before. List hasn’t had much success since that win, but he did have a nice statistical week at the Tournament of Champions two weeks ago. He ranked second in the field in strokes gained tee to green and third in strokes gained off the tee.
Also keep an eye on Brendan Steele (150/1) and Nate Lashley (175/1). They are two players who have had good ball-striking numbers that I will consider here.
