During the 2023 golf season, Stadium sports betting analyst Nate Jacobson will share his betting targets each week. Here are his thoughts on this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Note: Nate will tweet out his official bets when they are placed before the event. He also discusses his bets in all sports on the Sharp Lessons podcast. Subscribe on Spotify and Apple for episodes and follow Stadium Bets on Twitter for more sports betting content.
About the Tournament
Another week and another PGA TOUR event in the state of California. Just like the previous two, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will be played on multiple courses, with historic Pebble Beach as the crown jewel of a three-course rotation. Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula are the other two courses in play, as players will play all three of them before a 54-hole cut after Saturday’s third round. Players will also be paired with a celebrity for the “Pro-Am” element of this event, which leads to very long rounds and underwhelming TV coverage if you are a bettor.
Despite being played at one of the best golf courses in the world, this event lacks big-game players because of both the format and where it falls on the PGA TOUR schedule. After this week, the “West Coast Swing” will continue with the Waste Management Phoenix Open before returning to California for the Genesis Invitational. Both of those tournaments have $20 million purses, so a majority of the best players are taking this week off to rest for those events instead.
Top of the Board
There’s a clear top three with Matt Fitzpatrick (9/1), Jordan Spieth (10/1) and Viktor Hovland (10/1). After that trio, there’s a drop-off with Maverick McNealy, Tom Hoge and Seamus Power all priced at 20/1.
Hoge is the defending champion at this event, and I bet on him at 60/1 last year. Hoge has played well since the fall, but is overvalued at this number. Power is the player at the top that interests me the most. The Irishman has two wins in the last 18 months, including an October victory in Bermuda (he finished tied for ninth at this event last year).
In a field like this, I’m focusing on players down the board at longer odds.
The first name is Nick Hardy (66/1), who I bet on last week at the Farmers Insurance Open. Hardy put together another solid ball-striking week but struggled with his putter to finish tied for 44th. As long as the strong approach numbers continue and Hardy is priced in this range, I’ll likely continue betting on him.
The other mid-range target is a player I haven’t bet on before in Robby Shelton (66/1). He doesn’t have experience playing this event, but he finished tied for sixth two weeks ago at the American Express, which also had a three-course rotation. Shelton had some strong finishes in the fall, including tied for tenth in November’s RSM Classic. He was solid with his irons last week in San Diego.
Beau Hossler (70/1) is one of my favorite outright bets of the week. He finished third last season in this event, which is important in a tournament like this with a unique format. Hossler is coming off a missed cut last week as he was let down by his putter in the first round. The extra time off to focus on this week and his number makes me like Hossler even more.
Matthew NeSmith (80/1) stood out in my initial research for this event. NeSmith consistently plays well with his irons, and we saw that this past October when he recorded three top-nine finishes in a three-week span. He’s made the cut in all three of his appearances at this event with his best finish being tied for 11th in 2020.
I’m going to close my card out with Joseph Bramlett (80/1), Scott Piercy (150/1) and Peter Malnati (200/1). All three had decent finishes last week and can contend if their putters get hot.