During the 2023 golf season, Stadium sports betting analyst Nate Jacobson will share his betting targets each week. Here are his thoughts on this week’s Dell Technologies Match Play.
Note: Nate will tweet out his official bets when they are placed before the event. He also discusses his bets in all sports on the Sharp Lessons podcast. Subscribe on Spotify and Apple for episodes and follow Stadium Bets on Twitter for more sports betting content.
About the Tournament
After a stretch in Florida, this week’s premier golf event is in Texas for the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play. This is a uniquely formatted 64-player event that begins on Wednesday at Austin Country Club.
There are 16 groups with four players in each set that were determined by world ranking on Monday. Each player will play three group matches from Wednesday to Friday. The 16 group winners will move on to a single-elimination tournament that will take place on Saturday and Sunday. The round of 16 and quarterfinals are scheduled for Saturday, while the semifinals, third-place match and championship will all take place Sunday.
My betting strategy for this event is to target players who are not only playing well but have also been inserted into a favorable group in the bracket.
Top of the Board
The match play format can lead to a lot of variance, so I’m going to pass on the top of the board because a loss in group play would lead to an uphill battle of making it to the weekend.
Tyrrell Hatton (25/1) had a stellar two-week stretch in Florida where he was in the mix at the Arnold Palmer Invitational before finishing tied for fourth. The next week he fired a final-round 65 to finish second at THE PLAYERS Championship and won $2.7 million for the week thanks to that finish. Hatton is in a group with Russell Henley, Lucas Herbert and Ben Griffin, and I like his chances of getting out of that group. Hopefully his hot putter can take him a long way in this format.
Cameron Young (33/1) is probably the most talented player on the PGA TOUR who is still in search of his first victory. Young should be a good fit at Austin Country Club and has a manageable group that includes Sepp Straka, Corey Conners and Davis Thompson. The winner of this group would play the winner of a group headlined by Jon Rahm in the round of 16 — but Rahm has some worthy match play challengers in Billy Horschel, Keith Mitchell and Rickie Fowler that could give the Spaniard some trouble and make the path easier for Young.
Mid-Range Targets
Shane Lowry (50/1) had strong ball-striking stats over a five-week stretch between February and March. He took a much-needed break last week and finds himself in a group with a trio of above-average putters in Jordan Spieth, Taylor Montgomery and Mackenzie Hughes. While putting is usually more important in this format, I’m going to bet on Lowry’s ball-striking edge in this group and hope that some of his putting woes can improve after a week off. I will also look to bet on Lowry to win his group along with a ticket to win the event.
Longshots
Tom Hoge (66/1) has had up-and-down performances in 2023. His most recent start was a tied-for-third finish at the PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP where he ranked second in the field in strokes gained approach. Hoge is at longer odds for this tournament because he’s in a group led by Xander Schauffele, but I’m going to take a shot at Hoge to win this group as the second favorite. I’m also going to bet on Hoge in his individual matchup against Aaron Wise, who has missed the cut in four of his last five starts.
