During the 2023 golf season, Stadium sports betting analyst Nate Jacobson will share his betting targets each week. Here are his thoughts on this week’s Mexico Open.
Note: Nate will tweet out his official bets when they are placed before the event. He also discusses his bets in all sports on the Sharp Lessons podcast. Subscribe on Spotify and Apple for episodes and follow Stadium Bets on Twitter for more sports betting content.
About the Tournament
The PGA TOUR heads south of the border to Mexico for the second edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta this week. The tournament made its debut on the schedule last year with current Masters champion Jon Rahm winning the inaugural event.
Top of the Board
Rahm headlines the field at a consensus price of +250, which is as short of a pre-tournament favorite that you’ll ever see in a full-field PGA TOUR event. Due to the quality of the field, this number makes sense. It’s an easy decision to not bet on Rahm at these odds, but it’s also intimidating to find a winner over a player who already has four victories this calendar year.
Tony Finau (+750) is the next best player in the field and he finished tied for second in this event last year. There’s Wyndham Clark at 18/1 and then a pack of players in the 25/1 to 28/1 range. That’s where I find my first bet of the week in Gary Woodland (25/1). He’s a player I’ve bet on multiple times this year, including his last start at RBC Heritage where he finished tied for 31st in a very strong field. Woodland also had the best finish of his career at the Masters earlier this month when he placed tied for 14th and made the cut at this event last year.
Mid-range Targets
I considered both Byeong Hun An (35/1) and Aaron Rai (45/1), but at their prices, I’m going to pass on both and look to bet on them after the tournament starts. Instead, I have isolated a group of five players that I will bet outright and to also finish in the top five.
Emiliano Grillo (50/1) is coming off a tied-for-seventh finish at RBC Heritage. The Argentine is a very streaky player who usually struggles with his putter, but I can see him popping at an event like this where he made the cut last year.
Brandon Wu (55/1) was part of a group that finished tied for second at the Mexico Open last year. His form this year has been strong with another runner-up finish at AT&T Pebble Beach in February and a pair of top-20 finishes during the Florida swing.
Longshots
David Lipsky (80/1) tied for sixth place at last year’s inaugural event at Vidanta Vallarta, leading the field in strokes gained approach. While Lipsky’s form hasn’t been good outside a fourth-place finish to start the year in Hawaii, I’ll use his previous Mexico Open performance as a reason to bet him here at a big price.
Akshay Bhatia (100/1) is a player I’ve bet this season and will keep doing so if he’s priced in this range. He has the ability to get hot with his irons and placed second at the Puerto Rico Open in March.
My last bet is Erik van Rooyen (125/1), who has been very inconsistent over the last 12 months. But he’s another player that can get hot with his irons like we saw last month at the Valspar Championship, where he ranked second in the field in strokes gained approach. He has enough pedigree in this field to warrant a wager at this number.
