Best Bet: Wisconsin-North Texas Under 115.5
We will start our week with the NIT Semifinals on Tuesday night. Make sure to turn your AC on because this one will be sweaty. However, if you trust the reasoning behind the play, you know this is — and will always be — the right play.
As of Monday, 86% of bets are on the over. The public hammering the over makes sense, but we know these teams. The Badgers can’t consistently make shots, while North Texas has the slowest tempo in college basketball. Both teams love to grind it out and play it extremely slow.
Away from home this season, the Mean Green are in the top 35 in adjusted defense efficiency, effective field goal percentage defense, turnover percentage defense, two-point defense and three-point defense, according to Bart Torvik.
While Wisconsin’s defense is 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency in road/neutral games, their offense, as mentioned, is pitiful. They also do not rebound offensively (No. 325 in offensive rebounding), so they are very limited in second-chance points.
Expect this game to barely get over the 110 mark. Buckle up, it won’t be a smooth one.
Tip: Since the public is all over this matchup, wait until Tuesday to place your bet. I have been monitoring the total over the past few days and it continues to climb. It should only continue to move over the next 24 hours, which is why I’m planning to take it at 116.5.
Best Bet: Utah Valley-UAB Over 151.5
We’re switching gears and taking the over in this one.
This game is going to be played at a ludicrous speed with both teams inside the top 35 in pace, according to Haslametrics. This season, Utah Valley and UAB have a combined over/under record of 38-25. UAB as the favorite is 19-10, while Utah Valley is 4-4 as an underdog.
The skill level of both defenses is a little concerning, but the pace of play should cancel that out with the number of chances each team will be getting.
This season in road/neutral games, UAB is in the top 100 in adjusted offensive efficiency, offensive rebounding percentage, three-point offense and free throw percentage. The Blazers also protect the ball exceptionally well, as they are No. 71 in offensive turnover percentage.
Utah Valley is an inside-scoring team. Their offense will be 33.7% three-pointers, which is excellent because in road/neutral games vs. non-conference teams, UAB is No. 301 in two-point defense. The Wolverines should be able to get inside and get their shots (No. 48 in overall field goal percentage).
Both offenses will hopefully have themselves a Tuesday and start our week on a good note.