During the 2023 golf season, Stadium sports betting analyst Nate Jacobson will share his betting targets each week. Here are his thoughts on The Open Championship.
Note: Nate will tweet out his official bets when they are placed before the event. He also discusses his bets in all sports on the Sharp Lessons podcast. Subscribe on Spotify and Apple for episodes and follow Stadium Bets on Twitter for more sports betting content
About the Tournament
The best players in golf convene for the final time this year for The Open Championship. The last major of the year will be played at England’s Royal Liverpool in the town of Hoylake.
This is the first time since 2014 that The Open will be contested at Royal Liverpool. It’s a par-71 layout that measures 7,383 yards. Like all courses in The Open Championship rotation, this is a link-style course where wind can play a big factor over the four days. Make sure to look at tee times for the first two rounds to make sure a player you’re interested in isn’t playing in the worst conditions.
Top of the Board
Rory McIlroy (7/1) is always a popular name going into The Open Championship because this is the part of the world he is from. His appeal is even higher this week because of his recent form — plus, Royal Liverpool was the course where he won his last major nine years ago.
McIlroy is fresh off a Scottish Open win this past week and has recorded six top-nine finishes in a row, including runner-up at the U.S. Open last month. He finished third in last year’s Open Championship after being tied for the lead going into the final round. All those reasons make him a favorite or co-favorite this week depending on the sportsbook, but I believe he should be the second favorite this week.
Scottie Scheffler (8/1) is who should be at the top of the betting board. He has finished in the top five of his last seven starts dating back to May, but he doesn’t have a win to his name during that stretch. Some struggles with the putter have held him back from building on wins at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and THE PLAYERS Championship in 2023. But his tee-to-green game has been consistently outstanding every time he tees it up and you can count on him to be in the mix on Sunday.
He has also proven his game can translate to links-style golf. Before he became a star of the sport, he finished tied for eighth in his Open Championship debut in 2021. Last year, he was competitive for three rounds at St. Andrews before shooting a final-round 74 that dropped him down the leaderboard to tied for 21st. This past week, he finished tied for third at the Scottish Open and ranked second in strokes gained tee-to-green behind McIlroy. These ideal factors set up Scheffler to be a bet this week to win his third tournament of the year and second major of his career.
Brooks Koepka (20/1) is another player that stands out to me as his price for this event has drifted over the last month. Koepka is best known for his success in the PGA Championship and U.S. Open, where has has won those two majors a combined five times. But he has also played well at the The Open, finishing in the top six three times (2017, 2019 and 2021). Koepka started his career playing in tours based in Europe, so he has plenty of experience playing links-style golf.
Koepka is now a LIV player, but has shined in his opportunities to play in majors this year. He was runner-up at the Masters, won the PGA Championship a month later and snuck into the top 20 at the U.S. Open.
There was a lot of betting interest in Koepka at the U.S. Open, and his performance disappointed his backers, which is probably why there’s been a drift in his odds. But there’s also added attention on Cam Smith, Koepka’s LIV counterpart. Smith won The Open last year and is coming off a win at the last LIV event in London, resulting in Smith passing Koepka in the odds. Despite that, I don’t believe Smith has a better chance of winning this week. As long as the number is 20/1 or better, Koepka is a recommended bet.
Longshots
I have a strong conviction that either Scheffler or Koepka will be lifting the Claret Jug on Sunday. So I’m just going to bet those two players outright and look to bet these players to finish in the top 10 this week.
Ewen Ferguson and Daniel Hillier are admittedly two players I haven’t heard about until this past week’s Scottish Open. Both players had strong ball-striking numbers throughout the weekend at the Renaissance Club. Ferguson finished tied for 12th at his country’s national open and recently finished fourth at the British Masters. Hillier, who won the British Masters earlier this month, ranked third in strokes gained approach at the Scottish Open.
I’m also going to take a look at a pair of Englishmen in Matt Wallace and Matthew Southgate to find the top 10 of the leaderboard in their home country. Wallace has had some surprisingly strong ball-striking weeks this year, including when he won a PGA TOUR event in the Dominican Republic in March. He also had solid stats off the tee and with his irons at the Scottish Open. Southgate struck the ball well in Scotland for the two rounds he played, but a bad putter led him to miss the cut. Southgate has had some strong finishes on the European Tour recently and specializes in links-style golf.
