We’re in the second half of the college football regular season, so it’s a good time to look at some of the teams that have overachieved or disappointed in the regular season win total market. These win totals are set by sportsbooks months before the season begins and only factor in the 12-game regular season. Conference championship games and bowl games are NOT included.
Let’s take a closer look at the teams that have already clinched their over, are one win away from going over or clinched their under:
Teams that have clinched over on their win total
Louisville over 3.5: It’s been a remarkable bounce-back season for the Cardinals, who were the most disappointing team in college football last season. Scott Satterfield has done a fantastic job turning this program around, and they hit over their win total with a victory over Wake Forest in Week 7. With a 4-3 record, look for the Cardinals to give maximum effort as they attempt to become bowl eligible — which would be a great accomplishment for the team.
Oregon State over 2.5: The Beavers clinched the over on their win total by beating California as 10.5-point underdogs in Week 8. It was their second conference win after defeating UCLA earlier in October. The rest of Oregon State’s schedule is difficult on paper, so the win against Cal was huge for anyone who bet over on Oregon State’s regular season win total.
San Jose State over 2.5: The Spartans eclipsed their win total in Week 6 after defeating New Mexico. Their most surprising victory came when they upset Arkansas as 20.5-point underdogs in Week 4.
UTSA over 2.5: Conference USA had three teams with win totals of 2.5 entering the season (UTSA, UTEP and Rice). UTSA started the season with a win against Incarnate Word, and then won crucial games against the aforementioned UTEP and Rice. While it wasn’t a pretty journey to reach three wins, they got the results they needed.
Central Michigan over 4: Central Michigan improved to 5-3 with a win over Bowling Green in Week 8, clinching the over with the victory. Jim McElwain’s team lost to Wisconsin and Miami in non-conference games, but has played well against teams in their own class of talent.
Georgia State over 3.5: Four of Georgia State’s five wins have come in the underdog role, including a Week 1 shocker at Tennessee. The Panthers were 24.5-point underdogs in that matchup and have won three straight games as underdogs.
Power Five teams that need one win to go over their win total
Baylor over 7.5: I was high on Baylor before the season because of their backloaded schedule, but I didn’t expect a 7-0 start from the Bears. They have won a few tossup games against Iowa State and Texas Tech, and defeating Oklahoma State on the road in Week 8 was a huge statement for the program. The Bears will have a good chance to clinch their win total on Halloween night when they host West Virginia in Week 10.
Minnesota over 7.5: By avoiding Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State from the Big Ten East, the schedule set up nicely for Minnesota. The Golden Gophers have taken advantage of it (despite some scares in non-conference play) and are a win away from exceeding market expectations. They are currently 15-point favorites this upcoming week in a home matchup against Maryland, so they’ll likely clinch the over before October ends.
Wake Forest over 6: In Stadium’s preseason roundtable article from July, Alex Symonds picked Wake Forest to go over their win total largely because of their schedule, and the favorable slate of games early in the season has helped the Demon Deacons start the season 6-1. Wake Forest will have a bye this week and then five opportunities in November to cash the ticket for their over backers.
Teams that have clinched under on their win total
Army under 10: Army is one of the few teams in the country that plays 13 games, and that was built into their win total of 10. But with a loss to Georgia State in Week 8, Army fell to 3-4. The Black Knights have also lost to Tulane and Western Kentucky this month, making their double-overtime loss to Michigan in Week 2 seem like a distant memory.
Washington under 9.5: Washington’s Pac-12 dreams were crushed by Oregon in Week 8, and it was also the game that clinched their win total under. Losses to California and Stanford helped contribute to the disappointing season in Seattle.
Miami under 8.5: Miami picked up their fourth loss of the season in Week 8 when previously 1-5 Georgia Tech beat them. The Hurricanes were 18.5-point favorites in that game, and they also lost as 14-point favorites to Virginia Tech earlier this month. Miami will need to win three of their final five games to be bowl eligible.