Analyzing the NCAA Tournament Success of Coach K, John Calipari and College Basketball’s Top Coaches
The floodgates are open. After No. 1 seed Duke and No. 2 seed Kentucky lost in the Elite Eight on Sunday, two of the most accomplished programs in the
The floodgates are open.
After No. 1 seed Duke and No. 2 seed Kentucky lost in the Elite Eight on Sunday, two of the most accomplished programs in the sport won’t be competing in the Final Four in Minneapolis on Saturday, which apparently means it’s open season on the Blue Devils, Wildcats and their respective head coaches.
Here are a few examples that are among the top results when you search “John Calipari” or “Coach K” on Twitter.
John Calipari has now been at Kentucky for 10 years, makes over $9 million a year, regularly has the best team in college basketball, and yet has won just one national title.
— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) March 31, 2019
John Calipari is living a good life in Lexington.
10 years – 1 NCAA title.
If I’m a UK fan, that would infuriate me.
— Jeremy Rauch (@FOX19Jeremy) March 31, 2019
Tubby Smith at Kentucky: 10 years, one title
John Calipari at Kentucky: 10 years, one title pic.twitter.com/k1l2M0MxU8
— Tyson (@TysonNoMikeTho) March 31, 2019
Fun fact: Jim Calhoun has as many Final Four appearances in the last 15 years as Coach K (3) and the same number of titles in that stretch (2) as well. Jim Calhoun has also been retired since 2012.
(Jim Calhoun is a damn legend, by the way)
— Aaron Torres (@Aaron_Torres) April 1, 2019
Column from Michigan State’s upset of Duke in Washington: Why this loss will haunt Coach K more than any other. https://t.co/8oTyyX9j8J
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) April 1, 2019
Coach K failed Zion Williamson all season. This is how he blew it with the best player he’ll ever coach at Duke: https://t.co/flOla8J9TK
— Ricky O’Donnell (@SBN_Ricky) April 1, 2019
Are Krzyzewski and Calipari above reproach?
Of course not. After all, they did land the No. 1 and No. 2 2018 recruiting classes, respectively.
But since when is making the Elite Eight some colossal failure?
In the words of Krzyzewski, “It’s disappointing.”
“It’s not a disappointing year,” he told reporters after Duke’s loss. “Like, there’s a big difference. Like, this team put themselves in a position to go for it and had a chance for it. And, so, it’s disappointing that they didn’t get there. But I’m proud of them.”
Duke lost by one point to No. 2 seed Michigan State and Kentucky lost in overtime. It’s not hard to envision a scenario in which the Blue Devils and Wildcats are still playing in the NCAA Tournament.
Many of the arguments against Coach K and Coach Cal aren’t just about their roster management or in-game coaching during the 2019 NCAA Tournament or the season as a whole, but suggest a larger narrative of underachievement.
Krzyzewski and Calipari are both members of the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame and they’re two of the eight active NCAA Division I men’s basketball head coaches who have won a national championship.
In order to help you debate the merits, successes and failures of Coach K, Cal and their peers, we’ve done some research to make sure any argument online is between well-informed parties.
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Here are the eight active coaches who have won a national championship broken down by how often they’ve made the NCAA Tournament and advanced in the tournament in their respective careers.
For the columns labeled Sweet 16, Elite Eight and Final Four, the number listed indicates how many times that coach has advanced to that round in the tournament, not how many times his team has exited in that round. The coaches are listed in descending order of national championships, then in descending order of Final Four appearances.
| Coach | Number of Seasons | NCAA Tournament App. | Sweet 16 | Elite Eight | Final Four | National Championship(s) |
| Mike Krzyzewski | 44 | 35 | 25 | 16 | 12 | 5 |
| Roy Williams | 31 | 29 | 19 | 13 | 9 | 3 |
| Jay Wright | 25 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Tom Izzo | 24 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 1 |
| John Calipari* | 27 | 18 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 |
| Jim Boeheim** | 43 | 30 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| Bill Self | 26 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 1 |
| Tubby Smith | 28 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
Note: Stats courtesy of College Basketball Reference
*Had two Final Fours vacated, reflected in the numbers from “NCAA Tournament App.” through “Final Four”
**Had 101 wins vacated, including four NCAA Tournament appearances and an Elite Eight, which are reflected above, although Syracuse claims all of its NCAA Tournament appearances
Obviously the numbers listed above can favor coaches who have spent more time on the sideline running a DI program. So here is the same information but presented in terms of efficiency, meaning what percentage of the time does each coach’s team make the NCAA Tournament, advance to the Sweet 16, win the national championship, etc.?
Since Duke and Kentucky losing in the Elite Eight was the impetus for much of the recent conversation online about Krzyzewski and Calipari’s (in)ability to live up to expectations, the table below lists the active coaches who have won a national championship in descending order of Final Four percentage.
| Coach | Number of Seasons | NCAA Tournament App. | Sweet 16 | Elite Eight | Final Four | National Championship |
| Tom Izzo | 24 | 91.7% | 58.3% | 41.7% | 33.3% | 4.2% |
| Roy Williams | 31 | 93.5% | 61.3% | 41.9% | 29.0% | 9.7% |
| Mike Krzyzewski | 44 | 79.5% | 56.8% | 36.4% | 27.3% | 11.4% |
| John Calipari* | 27 | 66.7% | 48.1% | 37.0% | 14.8% | 3.7% |
| Jay Wright | 25 | 64.0% | 24.0% | 16.0% | 12.0% | 8.0% |
| Jim Boeheim** | 43 | 69.8% | 41.9% | 14.0% | 11.6% | 2.3% |
| Bill Self | 26 | 80.8% | 50.0% | 38.5% | 11.5% | 3.8% |
| Tubby Smith | 28 | 64.3% | 32.1% | 14.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
*Had two Final Fours vacated, reflected in the numbers from “NCAA Tournament App.” through “Final Four”
**Had 101 wins vacated, including four NCAA Tournament appearances and an Elite Eight, which are reflected above, although Syracuse claims all of its NCAA Tournament appearances
There are 19 active coaches who have made a Final Four, but haven’t won a national championship.
They’re listed below in descending order of Final Four appearances, then Elite Eight appearances, then Sweet 16 appearances, then NCAA Tournament appearances.
| Coach | Number of Seasons | NCAA Tournament App. | Sweet 16 | Elite Eight | Final Four |
| Ben Howland | 23 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Bob Huggins | 34 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| John Beilein | 27 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| Lon Kruger | 33 | 19 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Mark Few | 20 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 1 |
| Rick Barnes | 32 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| Bruce Pearl | 15 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Kelvin Sampson | 26 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Dana Altman | 30 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Bruce Weber | 21 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Tony Bennett | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Frank Martin | 12 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Chris Beard | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Tom Crean | 19 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Jim Larranaga | 33 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Gregg Marshall | 21 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Mike Davis | 19 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Shaka Smart | 10 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Porter Moser | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Now, here are those same 19 coaches but listed in descending order of the percent of their seasons that they have advanced to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
| Coach | Number of Seasons | NCAA Tournament App. | Sweet 16 | Elite Eight | Final Four |
| Chris Beard | 4 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Mark Few | 20 | 100.0% | 45.0% | 15.0% | 5.0% |
| Bruce Pearl | 15 | 66.7% | 33.3% | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| Tony Bennett | 13 | 69.2% | 30.8% | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| Bob Huggins | 34 | 70.6% | 26.5% | 11.8% | 5.9% |
| John Beilein | 27 | 48.1% | 25.9% | 14.8% | 7.4% |
| Rick Barnes | 32 | 75.0% | 21.9% | 9.4% | 3.1% |
| Ben Howland | 23 | 47.8% | 21.7% | 13.0% | 13.0% |
| Tom Crean | 19 | 47.4% | 21.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% |
| Bruce Weber | 21 | 61.9% | 19.0% | 9.5% | 4.8% |
| Frank Martin | 12 | 41.7% | 16.7% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Kelvin Sampson | 26 | 61.5% | 15.4% | 7.7% | 3.8% |
| Lon Kruger | 33 | 57.6% | 15.2% | 9.1% | 6.1% |
| Dana Altman | 30 | 46.7% | 13.3% | 6.7% | 3.3% |
| Shaka Smart | 10 | 70.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Gregg Marshall | 21 | 66.7% | 9.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| Jim Larranaga | 33 | 27.3% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Porter Moser | 15 | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Mike Davis | 19 | 47.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% |
Ultimately, like many arguments, there’s data available to support either side.
But the reality of the NCAA Tournament – what makes it so entertaining on an annual basis, without fail – is that it’s a 68-team, single-elimination tournament of 40-minute basketball games between 18 to 22-year-old players. It’s unpredictable and almost every team that makes the Final Four needs a stroke of luck, or at least good fortune, somewhere along the way.
If Krzyzewski, who’s won the national championship in roughly 11 percent of the seasons that he’s coached, and Calipari, who has advanced to the Elite Eight in almost 45 percent of his seasons, have underachieved in their careers in the eyes of some college basketball fans, then maybe we need to examine what “underachieving” truly means.
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