Brett McMurphy’s College Football Bowl Projections After Week 11

With no losses among the Top 10 teams in last week’s Associated Press rankings, this week’s bowl projections look pretty similar to last week’s.

However, there was one slight – but major – change in my College Football Playoff projections. Since Notre Dame has been so dominating and it has the head-to-head victory against Michigan, I’m projecting Notre Dame to be No. 3 and Michigan No. 4.

A few weeks ago, I thought because the Irish had been lackluster in some of their wins, the committee would reward Michigan for posting more dominating wins. With Syracuse now nationally-ranked, that will help offset any advantage Michigan will get if it wins at Ohio State.

Obviously, it will have a huge impact whether a team is No. 3 or No. 4, since No. 4 will have to face No. 1 Alabama in the Cotton Bowl.

One other thing to keep an eye on: How does the committee rank Kentucky and Florida on Tuesday? I think if both teams win out, the Wildcats or Gators will be competing for the final at-large New Year’s 6 bowl bid.

Onto this week’s bowl projections:

College Football Playoff
Championship – Jan. 7 (CFP semifinal winners)
Projection: Alabama vs. Clemson

Cotton Bowl – Dec. 29 (CFP semifinal)
Projection: Alabama (CFP No. 1) vs. Michigan (CFP No. 4)

Orange Bowl – Dec. 29 (CFP semifinal)
Projection:  Clemson (CFP No. 2) vs. Notre Dame (CFP No. 3)

New Year’s 6 Bowls
Rose Bowl – Jan. 1 (Big Ten vs. Pac-12)
Projection: Ohio State vs. Washington State

Sugar Bowl – Jan. 1 (Big 12 vs. SEC)
Projection: West Virginia vs. Georgia

Fiesta Bowl – Jan. 1 (at-large vs. Group of 5*)
Projection: Kentucky vs. UCF

Peach Bowl – Dec. 29 (at large vs. at-large)
Projection: LSU vs. Oklahoma

Other Bowls
Citrus Bowl – Jan. 1 (Big Ten vs. SEC)
Projection: Northwestern vs. Florida

Outback Bowl – Jan. 1 (Big Ten vs. SEC)
Projection: Penn State vs. Texas A&M

Gator Bowl – Dec. 31 (ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC)
Projection: Purdue vs. Auburn

Holiday Bowl – Dec. 31 (Big Ten vs. Pac-12)
Projection: Iowa vs. Oregon

Liberty Bowl – Dec. 31 (Big 12 vs. SEC)
Projection: Baylor vs. Arizona**

Redbox Bowl – Dec. 31 (Big Ten vs. Pac-12)
Projection: Michigan State vs. Stanford

Sun Bowl – Dec. 31 (ACC vs. Pac-12)
Projection: Boston College vs. Cal

Military Bowl – Dec. 31 (ACC vs. American)
Projection: Duke vs. Cincinnati

Arizona Bowl – Dec. 29 (Mountain West vs. Sun Belt)
Projection: Nevada vs. Louisiana-Monroe

Belk Bowl – Dec. 29 (ACC vs. SEC)
Projection: Pitt vs. Missouri

Alamo Bowl – Dec. 28 (Big 12 vs. Pac-12)
Projection: Texas vs. Utah

Camping World Bowl – Dec. 28 (ACC vs. Big 12)
Projection: Syracuse vs. Iowa State

Music City Bowl – Dec. 28 (ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC)
Projection: Virginia vs. South Carolina

Texas Bowl – Dec. 27 (Big 12 vs. SEC)
Projection: Texas Tech vs. Mississippi State

Pinstripe Bowl – Dec. 27 (ACC vs. Big Ten)
Projection: NC State vs. Wisconsin

Independence Bowl – Dec. 27 (ACC vs. SEC)
Projection: Georgia Tech vs. Louisiana Tech**

Cheez-It Bowl – Dec. 26 (Big 12 vs. Pac-12)
Projection: Oklahoma State vs. USC

Quick Lane Bowl – Dec. 26 (ACC vs. Big Ten)
Projection: Eastern Michigan** vs. Indiana

First Responder Bowl – Dec. 26 (C-USA vs. Big Ten)
Projection: UAB vs. BYU**

Hawaii Bowl – Dec. 22 (C-USA vs. Mountain West)
Projection: FIU vs. Hawaii

Dollar General Bowl – Dec. 22 (MAC vs. Sun Belt)
Projection: Buffalo vs. Troy

Armed Forces Bowl – Dec. 22 (American vs. Big 12)
Projection: SMU vs. Army**

Birmingham Bowl – Dec. 22 (American vs. SEC)
Projection: Memphis vs. San Diego State**

Idaho Potato Bowl – Dec. 21 (MAC vs. Mountain West)
Projection: Toledo vs. Boise State

Bahamas Bowl – Dec. 21 (C-USA vs. MAC)
Projection: FAU vs. Northern Illinois

Gasparilla Bowl – Dec. 20 (ACC vs. American)
Projection: Miami vs. USF

Frisco Bowl – Dec. 19 (American vs. MAC)
Projection: Houston vs. Western Michigan

Boca Raton Bowl – Dec. 18 (American vs. C-USA)
Projection: Temple vs. Marshall

New Orleans Bowl – Dec. 15 (C-USA vs. Sun Belt)
Projection: Middle Tennessee vs. Appalachian State

Camellia Bowl – Dec. 15 (MAC vs. Sun Belt)
Projection: Ohio vs. Georgia Southern

Las Vegas Bowl – Dec. 15 (Mountain West vs. Pac-12)
Projection: Utah State vs. Arizona State

Cure Bowl – Dec. 15 (American vs. Sun Belt)
Projection: Tulane vs. Arkansas State

New Mexico Bowl – Dec. 15 (C-USA vs. Mountain West)
Projection: North Texas vs. Fresno State

* – The highest rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in either the Cotton, Fiesta or Peach Bowl.

** – Replaces team from league that can’t fill bowl.