Brett McMurphy’s Final College Football Bowl Projections

Entering Sunday’s announcement of the College Football Playoff pairings, here are my final bowl projections.

After Sunday’s semifinal matchups are announced, I will update with any new information I receive involving the remaining 37 bowl games before the New Year’s Six bowls are announced about 3 p.m. ET.

In the past two years in my final projections, I have correctly predicted about 71 percent of the schools in their correct bowl.

In my final projections in 2017, I correctly had 77 of the 78 bowl-bound schools. Of the 78 bids, I had 53 schools in the correct bowl, including 15 bowls where I correctly projected both teams.

My final projections in 2018 were even better: I correctly picked all 78 bowl teams and which four teams would be left out. I projected 57 schools in the correct bowl, including 22 bowls where I correctly projected both teams.

Hopefully I can improve on those numbers in 2019.

On to my final projections as of Sunday morning:


College Football Playoff

ChampionshipJan. 13 (CFP semifinal winners)
Projection: LSU vs. Ohio State

Peach BowlDec. 28 (CFP semifinal)
Projection: LSU (CFP No. 1) vs. Oklahoma (CFP No. 4)

Fiesta BowlDec. 28 (CFP semifinal)
Projection: Ohio State (CFP No. 2) vs. Clemson (CFP No. 3)

New Year’s 6 Bowls

Rose BowlJan. 1 (Big Ten vs. Pac-12)
Projection: Wisconsin vs. Oregon

Sugar BowlJan. 1 (Big 12 vs. SEC)
Projection: Baylor vs. Georgia

Orange BowlJan. 1 (ACC vs. SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame)
Projection: Virginia vs. Florida

Cotton BowlDec. 28 (at-large vs. Group of Five*)
Projection: Penn State vs. Memphis*

Other Bowls

Citrus Bowl(Big Ten vs. SEC)
Projection: Michigan vs. Alabama

Outback Bowl(Big Ten vs. SEC)
Projection: Minnesota vs. Auburn

Gator Bowl(Big Ten/ACC vs. SEC)
Projection: Indiana vs. Kentucky

Holiday Bowl(Big Ten vs. Pac-12)
Projection: Iowa vs. USC

Liberty Bowl(Big 12 vs. SEC)
Projection: Kansas State vs. Navy**

Redbox Bowl(Big Ten vs. Pac-12)
Projection: Illinois vs. Cal

Sun Bowl(ACC vs. Pac-12)
Projection: Florida State vs. Arizona State

Military Bowl(ACC vs. American)
Projection: North Carolina vs. Temple

Arizona Bowl(Mountain West vs. Sun Belt)
Projection: San Diego State vs. Arkansas State

Belk Bowl(ACC vs. SEC)
Projection: Virginia Tech vs. Mississippi State

Alamo Bowl(Big 12 vs. Pac-12)
Projection: Texas vs. Utah

Camping World Bowl(ACC vs. Big 12)
Projection: Notre Dame vs. Iowa State

Music City Bowl (ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC)
Projection: Louisville vs. Tennessee

Texas Bowl(Big 12 vs. SEC)
Projection: Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M

Pinstripe Bowl(ACC vs. Big Ten)
Projection: Wake Forest vs. Michigan State

Independence Bowl(ACC vs. SEC)
Projection: Miami vs. Southern Miss**

Cheez-It Bowl(Big 12 vs. Pac-12)
Projection: Air Force** vs. Washington State

Quick Lane Bowl(ACC vs. Big Ten)
Projection: Pitt vs. Western Michigan**

First Responder Bowl(Big 12 vs. C-USA)
Projection: Eastern Michigan** vs. Louisiana Tech

Hawaii Bowl(AAC vs. BYU)
Projection: Hawaii** vs. BYU

Mobile Bowl(MAC vs. Sun Belt)
Projection: Miami (OH) vs. Louisiana

Armed Forces Bowl(Big Ten vs. Mountain West)
Projection: Western Kentucky** vs. Utah State

Birmingham Bowl(American vs. SEC)
Projection: Cincinnati vs. Boston College**

Idaho Potato Bowl(MAC vs. Mountain West)
Projection: Ohio vs. Nevada

Bahamas Bowl(C-USA vs. MAC)
Projection: Charlotte vs. Buffalo

Gasparilla Bowl(American vs. C-USA)
Projection: UCF vs. Marshall

Frisco Bowl(American vs. Open)
Projection: Tulane vs. Central Michigan**

Boca Raton Bowl(American vs. MAC)
Projection: SMU vs. Florida Atlantic**

New Orleans Bowl(C-USA vs. Sun Belt)
Projection: UAB vs. Appalachian State

Camellia Bowl(MAC vs. Sun Belt)
Projection: Kent State vs. Georgia State

Las Vegas Bowl(Mountain West vs. Pac-12)
Projection: Boise State vs. Washington

Cure Bowl(American vs. Sun Belt)
Projection: Liberty** vs. Georgia Southern

New Mexico Bowl(C-USA vs. Mountain West)
Projection: FIU vs. Wyoming

Teams in bold have already officially accepted bid.

*-The highest rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Cotton Bowl.

**-Replaces team from league that can’t fill bowl.