Brett McMurphy’s Penultimate College Football Bowl Projections

    Will the Pac-12 finally return to the CFP?

    The penultimate College Football Playoff rankings were released Tuesday night, which gave us an idea of how the final rankings could look on Sunday, barring any upsets among the top three teams.

    Ohio State once again remained at No. 1 in Tuesday’s rankings, followed by No. 2 LSU, No. 3 Clemson and No. 4 Georgia.

    The biggest discussion/debate between now and Sunday afternoon when the playoff pairings are announced will be who ends up at No. 4 if No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 LSU and No. 3 Clemson each win their respective conference titles.

    Utah moved up to No. 5 on Tuesday, one spot above No. 6 Oklahoma. The biggest unknown is will a win against No. 7 Baylor be enough for OU to move past Utah, after the Utes defeat No. 13 Oregon? Current No. 4 Georgia would drop with a loss to LSU in the SEC title game.

    I don’t think a win over Baylor will be enough for Oklahoma, so I’m sticking with my preseason projection of Utah winning the Pac-12 and earning a berth in the College Football Playoff.

    Tuesday’s rankings impacted my Monday projections from 24 hours ago quite a bit — most notably for Wisconsin and Alabama.

    At No. 8, Wisconsin should now either wind up in the Rose Bowl or Cotton Bowl after a loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, with No. 10 Penn State either getting the Rose or Cotton.

    As far as Alabama, the Crimson Tide’s streak of College Football Playoff appearances ends at five years. Alabama is now headed to *gasp* a non-New Year’s 6 Bowl for the first time in the playoff’s six-year history.

    Here are my notable bowl projection changes from Monday based on Tuesday’s rankings:

    Wisconsin (Cotton), Alabama (Outback), Tennessee vs. Indiana (Gator), Kentucky (Belk), Texas (Camping World), Oklahoma State (Texas Bowl), Kansas State (Liberty Bowl), Iowa State (Cheez-It), Washington (Sun) and Arizona State (Holiday)

    Sunday, I will release my final bowl projections before the College Football Playoff field and New Year’s 6 bowls are announced.

    In my final projections in 2017, I correctly had 77 of the 78 bowl-bound schools. Of those 78 bids, I had 53 schools in the correct bowl, including 15 bowls where I correctly projected both teams.

    My final projections in 2018 were even better: I correctly picked all 78 bowl teams and predicted which four teams would be left out. I projected 57 schools in the correct bowl, including 22 bowls where I correctly projected both programs.

    Hopefully, I can improve on those numbers in 2019.

    On to my penultimate projections:

     

    College Football Playoff

    ChampionshipJan. 13 (CFP semifinal winners)
    Projection: LSU vs. Ohio State

    Semifinals
    Peach BowlDec. 28 (CFP semifinal)
    Projection: Ohio State (CFP No. 1) vs. Utah (CFP No. 4)

    Fiesta BowlDec. 28 (CFP semifinal)
    Projection: LSU (CFP No. 2) vs. Clemson (CFP No. 3)

    New Year’s 6 Bowls

    Rose BowlJan. 1 (Big Ten vs. Pac-12)
    Projection: Penn State vs. Oregon

    Sugar BowlJan. 1 (Big 12 vs. SEC)
    Projection: Oklahoma vs. Georgia

    Orange BowlJan. 1 (ACC vs. SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame)
    Projection: Virginia vs. Florida

    Cotton BowlDec. 28 (at-large vs. Group of Five*)
    Projection: Wisconsin vs. Memphis*

    Other Bowls

    Citrus Bowl(Big Ten vs. SEC)
    Projection: Michigan vs. Auburn

    Outback Bowl(Big Ten vs. SEC)
    Projection: Minnesota vs. Alabama

    Gator Bowl(Big Ten/ACC vs. SEC)
    Projection: Indiana vs. Tennessee

    Holiday Bowl(Big Ten vs. Pac-12)
    Projection: Iowa vs. Arizona State

    Liberty Bowl(Big 12 vs. SEC)
    Projection: Kansas State vs. Navy**

    Redbox Bowl(Big Ten vs. Pac-12)
    Projection: Illinois vs. Cal

    Sun Bowl(ACC vs. Pac-12)
    Projection: North Carolina vs. Washington

    Military Bowl(ACC vs. American)
    Projection: Pitt vs. Temple

    Arizona Bowl(Mountain West vs. Sun Belt)
    Projection: San Diego State vs. Arkansas State

    Belk Bowl(ACC vs. SEC)
    Projection: Virginia Tech vs. Kentucky

    Alamo Bowl(Big 12 vs. Pac-12)
    Projection: Baylor vs. USC

    Camping World Bowl(ACC vs. Big 12)
    Projection: Notre Dame vs. Texas

    Music City Bowl (ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC)
    Projection: Louisville vs. Mississippi State

    Texas Bowl(Big 12 vs. SEC)
    Projection: Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M

    Pinstripe Bowl(ACC vs. Big Ten)
    Projection: Wake Forest vs. Michigan State

    Independence Bowl(ACC vs. SEC)
    Projection: Miami vs. Florida Atlantic**

    Cheez-It Bowl(Big 12 vs. Pac-12)
    Projection: Iowa State vs. Air Force**

    Quick Lane Bowl(ACC vs. Big Ten)
    Projection: Florida State vs. Kent State**

    First Responder Bowl(Big 12 vs. C-USA)
    Projection: Eastern Michigan** vs. Marshall

    Hawaii Bowl(AAC vs. BYU)
    Projection: Hawaii** vs. BYU

    Mobile Bowl(MAC vs. Sun Belt)
    Projection: Western Michigan vs. Louisiana

    Armed Forces Bowl(Big Ten vs. Mountain West)
    Projection: Florida International** vs. Utah State

    Birmingham Bowl(American vs. SEC)
    Projection: Cincinnati vs. Boston College**

    Idaho Potato Bowl(MAC vs. Mountain West)
    Projection: Miami, Ohio vs. Nevada

    Bahamas Bowl(C-USA vs. MAC)
    Projection: Charlotte vs. Buffalo

    Gasparilla Bowl(American vs. C-USA)
    Projection: UCF vs. UAB

    Frisco Bowl(American vs. Open)
    Projection: Tulane vs. Southern Miss**

    Boca Raton Bowl(American vs. MAC)
    Projection: SMU vs. Central Michigan

    New Orleans Bowl(C-USA vs. Sun Belt)
    Projection: Louisiana Tech vs. Appalachian State

    Camellia Bowl(MAC vs. Sun Belt)
    Projection: Ohio vs. Georgia State

    Las Vegas Bowl(Mountain West vs. Pac-12)
    Projection: Boise State vs. Washington State

    Cure Bowl(American vs. Sun Belt)
    Projection: Liberty** vs. Georgia Southern

    New Mexico Bowl(C-USA vs. Mountain West)
    Projection: Western Kentucky vs. Wyoming


    Teams in bold have already officially accepted bid.

    *-The highest rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Cotton Bowl.

    **-Replaces team from league that can’t fill bowl.

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