College Football Betting Advice for Week 6 Games of the Week

The South Point Sportsbook in Las Vegas released their Game of the Year lines in May and there were seven games included for the Week 6 slate. I’m going to preview the five games involving teams in Power Five conferences. The other games are a Friday night tilt between Utah State and BYU, and Navy against Air Force on Saturday. If you are looking for Friday night action, I would recommend taking Utah State +2.5.

Here are the previews for the other five games from a handicapping viewpoint:


Florida State vs. 17 Miami (-13.5) 

There has been a lot of adjustment in the point spread of this game, and for good reason. Miami opened as an eight-point favorite in May. That was bet down to Miami -6 by July. Now, the Hurricanes are almost a two-touchdown favorite against their biggest rival.

Florida State has struggled greatly in Willie Taggart’s first season. Virginia Tech and Syracuse routed the Seminoles in conference games last month. They were, however, able to rebound with a win against Northern Illinois, then rally to top Louisville in a game between two programs trending down.

Miami is off to a 4-1 start and recently made a quarterback change. Freshman N’Kosi Perry started against North Carolina in Week 5 in place of Malik Rosier. Perry wasn’t required to do much as the Hurricanes scored three defensive touchdowns in a 47-10 win. Miami only outgained North Carolina 354-329 despite the convincing final score.

Florida State has owned this series recently. They won seven straight games against Miami before the Hurricanes snapped the streak last season. This is the biggest favorite Miami has been against Florida State since 2002. It’s tempting to bet Florida State against the spread especially if you get 14 points. The difference in talent between the two teams is minimal and Miami has a weak home-field advantage.

The key matchup in this game is the Florida State offensive line against the Miami defensive line. The Hurricanes have a huge edge in that battle and that’s the reason why I’ll likely pass on taking the Seminoles.


Nebraska vs. 16 Wisconsin (-18)

This line opened at Wisconsin -17 in May when Wisconsin was receiving College Football Playoff buzz and there was new hope for Nebraska with coach Scott Frost. A lot has happened since then, but the line has stayed close to the opening number.

Nebraska might be the best 0-4 team in the country. They lost their eighth straight game last week when they fell to Purdue. The Cornhuskers outgained the Boilermakers 582-516, and now Nebraska has outgained their opponent in three of their four losses. That can be taken as a positive for Nebraska going forward; hopefully luck turns their way soon. Another positive for Scott Frost’s team is quarterback Adrian Martinez looks like he’s back to full health, having thrown for 323 yards and rushing for 91 yards last week.

Wisconsin comes into this game fresh after having their bye week. The Badgers were shocked at home by BYU in Week 3 and bounced back with a dramatic win at Iowa before the bye. Wisconsin must run the table and win the Big Ten Championship if they have any chance of making the Playoff.

The way to attack this game from a betting angle is to wait until halftime. If Wisconsin has a big lead, take Nebraska to cover the second half spread. The Badgers have a huge game on deck at Michigan, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they slow down in the second half. Meanwhile, Frost is trying to build a culture within his program and they’ll certainly play hard for all 60 minutes.


5 LSU (-2) vs. 22 Florida  

There was some movement on this game over the summer when LSU opened -3.5 and got bet down to -1 after support on Florida came in. This week, the line for this game opened at LSU -3 and is now trending back down.

LSU is proving a lot of people wrong, including me, as they have started off 5-0 after a big win against Ole Miss in Week 5. That win was Tigers QB Joe Burrow’s best in a Tigers uniform. He shook off his accuracy issues by completing 72 percent of his passes, and threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns. He also showed off his running ability with 96 yards and a touchdown.

Florida is 4-1 and returns home after back-to-back conference road wins against Tennessee and Mississippi State. The Gators’ only loss was against Kentucky, which isn’t looking like as bad of a loss now that the Wildcats are ranked No. 13 in the latest poll.

I’m still going to maintain my position that you should sell LSU; I’m going to pick Florida. I would’ve preferred +3, but I still think they will straight up. Last week was a huge game for coach Dan Mullen as he beat his old program on the road as seven-point underdogs against Mississippi State. This is another huge game for Mullen, as he gets his first home game in the prime SEC TV slot. Mullen has a lot of familiarity and recent success coaching against LSU from his time at Mississippi State. I like the Gators’ defense to have success against Burrow and the Tigers’ offense. LSU will be focused on this game but worth noting they host No. 2 Georgia next week.


10 Washington (-20.5) vs. UCLA

Another 0-4 team gets mentioned in this article as Chip Kelly and UCLA are still searching for their first win of 2018. The line for this game was Washington -16 this summer, so a big spread here was expected with the best team in the Pac-12 involved.

UCLA had a 16-14 lead in the third quarter at Colorado last Friday night before giving up the 24 unanswered points. The Bruins will likely have struggles all season as they start freshman quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and try to rebuild a program that Jim Mora Jr. left.

The situation favors UCLA, as this is Kelly’s first big primetime home game at the school. But I wouldn’t bet against Washington. The Huskies had an early loss to Auburn and now need to win out for any shot at making the College Football Playoff. Washington will be looking to run up the score in order to impress the Playoff committee, and they could win this game by over three touchdowns. Stay away from this game. There are better games to watch on Saturday evening.


19 Texas vs. 7 Oklahoma (-7.5) in Dallas

Like this one. I can make a case to bet on either team in this one. This game was one of the biggest-moving games in the summer when Oklahoma opened as a 12-point favorite in May. After two months, this line dropped as low as Oklahoma -5. The seven-point adjustment was due to the attention Texas received all summer and the up-in-the-air status of Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray, who was selected in the first round of the MLB Draft. At the time, there was uncertainty that Murray would continue to play football and that may have been a factor in the line move.

Not only did Murray decide to play — he’s a Heisman contender. Murray has accounted for 21 touchdowns, leading the Sooners to a 5-0 record. The only game in which Oklahoma struggled was a 28-21 overtime win against Army. That game featured a perfect game plan by Army, who ran their triple option offense all day and kept Murray off the field. Oklahoma ended up running just 40 plays and averaged 8.9 yards per play. Army ran 87 plays and attempted 78 rushes. The Knights had a 44:41-15:19 edge in time of possession. The good news for Oklahoma: They survived that game. Most Big 12 offenses primarily throw the ball, which suits their style better.

Texas was a team I said to sell last week, and they failed to cover the spread in a 19-14 win at Kansas State. This was a tough situation for the Longhorns coming off wins over USC and TCU and this game on deck. Now Tom Herman and Texas are back in their preferred underdog role. I wrote about the Tom Herman underdog trend in the TCU-Texas preview two weeks ago. Texas ended up winning that game, as Herman proved again how good he is in that spot.

I think Oklahoma could be undervalued because of the close game against Army, but I’m nervous to go against Tom Herman as an underdog. One way to look at this game is over 61.5 because of fatigue of the Oklahoma defense. Following the Army game, the Sooners’ defense was on the field for 101 plays in a 66-33 win over Baylor last week. Texas’ defense has kept opponents under 16 points or less the last three games, but they haven’t faced an offense as explosive as Oklahoma’s. I’m torn on the spread, but I like the Red River Showdown to go over the total.