During the college football season, the Stadium staff will provide weekly betting picks and advice in this roundtable. Here are our thoughts on the Week 13 slate.
Note: Ben and Nate will discuss all of their college football and NFL bets on the Sharp Lessons podcast. Subscribe on Spotify and Apple for episodes and follow Stadium Bets on Twitter for more sports betting content.
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Ben Wittenstein, Stadium Social Media Producer: Under 47.5 in Iowa State vs. TCU.
You’re going to give me an Iowa State total close to 50? Again? We’ve won this play two weeks in a row at roughly the same exact number. This one will certainly be the toughest to get, but the Cyclones now have hit seven-straight unders, and after getting the under against the 31st- and 41st-best offenses in the country, they face the 11th-ranked offense. It’ll be the defense’s toughest test yet, but they’ve been dominant so far. Plus, TCU isn’t super concerned about blowing out ISU in this game as their attention will be on next weekend’s Big 12 title game. ISU unders have been fruitful and we must continue to hit it until given a reason not to.
Nate Jacobson, Stadium Sports Betting Analyst: Missouri +3 over Arkansas.
For the last week of the college football regular season I like to target five-win teams that need one more to get bowl eligible. Missouri fits in that category this week and they are a team who should be motivated to play a bowl game under third-year head coach Eli Drinkwitz. The situation sets up well for Missouri, who’s welcoming in an Arkansas team that picked up win No. 6 in Week 12 with a victory over Ole Miss. Now the Razorbacks have to travel on a short week with this game being played on a Friday afternoon. This isn’t my favorite “Best Bet” of the year, but it’s a great situation to bet Mizzou plus the points and on the moneyline.
BW: Over 59 in Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss.
There’s nothing better than plopping down on the couch after stuffing your face with turkey and gravy and dessert. The feelings of a food coma start to rise as you lazily lift your finger to change the TV to some primetime college football. What’s the only thing that can keep you awake at a time like this? An Egg Bowl offensive shootout. The total opened at 63.5 and has been bet down to 59. While rain is in the forecast, Mother Nature doesn’t cancel out the defensive deficiencies of these teams.
Mississippi State is one of the best passing teams in the country, while Ole Miss has the 58th-ranked pass defense. Ole Miss has the second-most rush yards per game in the nation, going up against Mississippi State, who has the 68th-ranked rush defense. Both of these defenses have a glaring hole where their opponent succeeds. The game plan is very clear for both teams, and I don’t really trust either school to consistently stop the other. Let these offenses keep you awake and then you can fall asleep on Thanksgiving night with both a full wallet and stomach.
NJ: Texas Tech +2.5 over Oklahoma.
I would’ve liked this bet a lot more if Texas Tech was entering this game at 5-6 and needing a win to be bowl eligible. But the Red Raiders took care of that last week with a win at Iowa State. That’s a huge accomplishment for first-year head coach Joey McGuire in the super competitive Big 12. However, I still think Texas Tech will be motivated to play in this game back at home against an Oklahoma team that is soon leaving the conference for the SEC.
On the other side, I’m not sure how motivated Oklahoma will be for this game after a disappointing season. They became bowl eligible last week with a win at home against in-state rival Oklahoma State, but the Sooners had aspirations of competing for a conference title this season. I was expecting Texas Tech to be the favorite in this game, so I’ll take them at any underdog price.
BW: Indiana (+320) over Purdue.
Ah yes, betting on a team that has brought me so much pain and suffering this year. I made a futures bet of over 4.5 regular season wins for IU and a win here would do that, so why not double down? How much more improved is this Hoosiers offense with new QB Dexter Williams? They’re better… I think?
If IU is going to wake up for any game, it will be against Purdue. A Purdue team, I might add, that might not have much to play for if Iowa wins on Friday. An Iowa win solidifies the Hawkeyes as the Big Ten West champs, leaving Purdue behind. So as long as Iowa gets the dub over Nebraska, I like a sneaky IU win over a possibly unmotivated Purdue program.
NJ: California (+310) over UCLA.
I’m going to look at another motivational angle and bet against UCLA off back-to-back home losses to Arizona and USC. The Arizona loss was as 20-point favorites, crushing UCLA’s chances to make the College Football Playoff. Last week, they lost a hard fought 48-45 game to crosstown rival USC to eliminate them from Pac-12 title contention. Now the Bruins head up north on a Friday afternoon with nothing to play for. Cal is a team I like betting as an underdog under Justin Wilcox, and the Golden Bears view the Bruins as a rival, so they’ll get up for their last game of the season.
BW: Oregon -3 over Oregon State.
It’s not an easy task to go on the road and win in Corvallis. There’s a lot on the line for Oregon, which is precisely why the Beavers are going to want to spoil it. Things get weird for favorites on the road in rivalry games, so I’m going to stay FAR away from this one.
NJ: Texas A&M +10 over LSU.
It has been a disastrous season for Texas A&M, who is 4-7 and one of the biggest underachievers in college football. However, I have a feeling Jimbo Fisher will try to keep his team engaged for this game knowing a win over LSU could help keep current players out of the transfer portal and preserve some of the Aggies’ upcoming recruiting classes.
This would also be a good opportunity to bet against LSU, who might be thinking ahead to the SEC Championship Game against Georgia. However, I’m worried that the Texas A&M players have truly quit on the season, and LSU knows a win would keep them alive for a College Football Playoff spot if they also won next week. I’m going to stay away and maybe look to live bet this game.