During the college football season, the Stadium staff will provide weekly betting picks and advice in this roundtable. Here are our thoughts on the Week 4 slate.
Note: Ben and Nate will discuss all of their college football and NFL bets on the Sharp Lessons podcast. Subscribe on Spotify and Apple for episodes and follow Stadium Bets on Twitter for more sports betting content.
Alex Symonds, Stadium Senior Producer: TCU -125 ML over SMU.
SMU is going to be juiced for this matchup with former coach Sonny Dykes coming back to the SMU campus in his first year as TCU’s coach. While the Mustangs will have the “juice” advantage, the Horned Frogs come in well rested after a weekend off and Dykes has the much better roster in this matchup. I made this game TCU -6 and feel like getting the Horned Frogs at this price is a steal.
Ben Wittenstein, Stadium Social Media Producer: Clemson team total over 31.5 vs. Wake Forest.
Morally, I don’t enjoy backing Clemson, but when it comes to betting, I throw my morals out the window because this number is too low. Clemson averages 44.5 points per game this season, and while Wake Forest is likely the toughest defense they will have faced up to this point, the number still is disrespectful to what this Tigers offense is. DJ Uiagalelei has been more than a serviceable QB so far this year, only throwing one pick and holding a respectable 65 percent completion percentage. Wake Forest’s D-line will likely give him some issues, but Clemson’s offense is too talented not to meet expectations in this game.
Nate Jacobson, Stadium Sports Betting Analyst: Oregon State +6 over USC.
Before the season, I bet USC under 9.5 regular season wins. So far, the Trojans have answered my doubts about them with an offense of talented transfers that have hit the ground running, and their defense has been opportunistic in wins over Rice, Stanford and Fresno State. However, I expected USC to win those games; the first game I circled for them as a possible loss was this Week 4 tilt at Oregon State. A night game in Corvallis is a tough environment to play in, and USC making early-season headlines creates value on betting the home underdog in this game. I trust Oregon State’s head coach Jonathan Smith to scheme the offense to exploit USC’s defense, which has given up yards, but has forced 10 turnovers in the first three games to bail them out.
AS: Louisiana Tech +13.5 over South Alabama.
South Alabama has had a banner start to the 2022 season and is a 24-yard UCLA field goal away from a 3-0 record. This is purely a situational play on La Tech due to what South Alabama has had to endure to start the season from a travel standpoint: consecutive road games at Central Michigan and in the Rose Bowl over the last two weeks after opening the season with a breezy home win against Nicholls State. Is Louisiana Tech the better team? No. But I’m backing the Bulldogs in a brutal scheduling spot for the Jaguars.
BW: Oregon -6.5 over Washington State.
It’s possible I’m a very dumb person putting my money and energy behind Bo Nix yet again after his Week 1 debacle, but Oregon seems to be undervalued this week. The Week 1 loss to Georgia really spooked a lot of people away from the Ducks, and I think the market still reflects that. Nix hasn’t been sacked once this year and is operating behind one of the best offensive lines in the country. The team under Dan Lanning is starting to find itself as the weeks go on, and I’ll take a spread that’s under a touchdown here.
NJ: Kansas State +13 over Oklahoma.
Kansas State was a buy team for me entering the season, as I bet over their regular season win total of 6.5 and to win a wide open Big 12 Conference. Last week was a big step back for the Chris Klieman’s team when they lost outright to Tulane as two-touchdown favorites. I’m hoping the Wildcats were looking ahead to this game, as Alex mentioned last week in this section when he made his case for betting on Tulane. On the opposite side, Oklahoma proved me wrong in a big way by dominating Nebraska last week. Both of those results creates an opportunity to buy low on Kansas State in the underdog role.
AS: Wake Forest (+235) over Clemson.
Wake Forest hasn’t beaten Clemson since 2008, so the Demon Deacons are due, right? Right? All kidding aside, now that Sam Hartman is back on the field I believe that Wake has real potential to knock off Dabo Swinney’s team much more than the 29 percent chance the +235 odds imply. While Clemson’s defense has been its usual dominant self to start the season allowing less than three yards per carry on the ground and just 14 points per game, the Tigers have yet to play an offense as good as the Demon Deacons. I’m willing to take a shot on Dave Clawson, Sam Hartman and Wake as a result.
BW: Florida (+300) over Tennessee.
Yes, the Gators have looked less than stellar since their tough win over Utah in Week 1. However, this is the first time they’ve been a substantial underdog this season. The pressure is off, the spotlight isn’t there. This is where Florida can thrive. They’ve got history on their side. They’ve dominated this matchup, having won the last five games against Tennessee — all games in which they were favored. The public and betting experts being on the Vols makes this even more intriguing, because you know there’s nothing less surprising than a heavy public favorite going down in college football.
NJ: James Madison (+225) over Appalachian State.
You have to wonder how many big games App State will be able to get motivated for after their first three weeks of the season. In Week 1, they hosted an in-state opponent in North Carolina and lost a crazy game 63-61. I would’ve expected a letdown from the Mountaineers the week after, but they went to Texas A&M and pulled off an outright upset as 18.5-point underdogs. As a result of the win, ESPN College GameDay changed their plans of going to College Station for Week 3 and instead they went to Boone, NC for App State’s game against Troy. The Mountaineers ended up winning the game on a Hail Mary that was the top highlight of college football this past week.
Now App State stays at home and entertains new FBS team James Madison. The Dukes were a power at the FCS level and are coming off a bye week after starting the season 2-0. I do like James Madison +7, and the added uncertainty about their power rating and App State likely having a lull after the first three weeks has me on the James Madison moneyline too.
AS: Duke +7.5 over Kansas.
The vibes right now in Lawrence, KS are immaculate. Lance Leipold has the Jayhawks 3-0 for the first time since 2009 with the nation’s No. 3 scoring offense, No. 2 rushing offense and No. 2 third-down offense. The numbers are amazing. I just don’t believe in them for one reason: This is Kansas! The Jayhawks are not supposed to be good at football. If this game touches 8.5, I’m going to be on Duke.
BW: Indiana +16.5 over Cincinnati.
There very few things I love more than betting the Hoosiers as large underdogs. Yet… they stink. They simply are bad. The offense is anemic, the defense struggles against fast-paced offenses, and the coaching can be questionable. I would love for IU to not only cover, but to win. However, I can’t get it out of my head that they’re going to be blown out facing the first actual tough competition of the season.
NJ: UConn +39 over NC State.
This would be a perfect spot to fade NC State, who are coming off a primetime win over Texas Tech and have a trip to Clemson next week. Unfortunately, the opponent they draw for this week is one of the worst FBS teams in UConn, who are fresh off a 59-0 loss to Michigan. I’m confident that Wolfpack head coach Dave Doeren will have an eye towards next week when they are up big in the second half. I’m just not sure if they’ll be leading by six touchdowns by the time they put in the backups, so I’ll stay away.