College Football Betting: Week 5 Best Picks and Advice

Ben Wittenstein: Utah State -5.5 over UConn.

Look, I know what you’re saying. And I get it! This is a gross play to make. But if I can bet against one of the worst football teams in the country and it’s under 7? I’m hopping on that one.

UConn comes into this game 0-4 on the year and haven’t lost a game by fewer than seven points. They struggle to not only keep games close, but their offense is one of the worst in the country, ranking 126th in points per play. Utah State is not a great first quarter team, but they rank top 50 in second half scoring. Give me an Aggies team in a bounce-back game against a truly awful opponent.

Nate Jacobson: LSU -2.5 over Ole Miss.

I’ve looked for spots to fade an overvalued Ole Miss team and I’m going do it again this week. In Week 2, they struggled against a Tulane team who was missing starting QB Michael Pratt before winning by 17 thanks to scoring 10 points in the final two minutes. The next week, they scored late touchdowns to cover the point spread against Georgia Tech, and that game was also close until early in the fourth quarter. Then last week, Ole Miss got exposed by the worst Alabama team since the early days of Nick Saban’s tenure in Tuscaloosa.

LSU is still undervalued because they lost in Week 1 to Florida State. That loss looks better with the Seminoles at 4-0 and having an inside track to making the College Football Playoff. The Tigers had a scare last week against Arkansas, but hopefully that was a wakeup call for Brian Kelly’s team as they go to Ole Miss Saturday evening.

Colby Marchio: Clemson -6.5 over Syracuse.

Clemson is coming off an embarrassing loss to Florida State. Their offense looks atrocious, but their defense gives me hope against Syracuse.

The Orange have not played anybody good this season, so they are overvalued. They played Colgate, Western Michigan, Purdue and Army in their first four games. Please tell me which one of those teams has them prepared for the Tigers’ high intensity defense. The answer is none of them. SIGH… Give me Dabo’s boys.

BW: Kentucky -1 over Florida.

Time to sheepishly admit I took the Wildcats when they were -3 earlier this week. However, even as a short favorite I still like them.

Situationally, this looks great for Kentucky. Florida is coming off three straight home wins, including a huge victory against Tennessee two weeks ago. Now they have a noon start away from “The Swamp” and haven’t left their campus in a month. Kentucky’s defensive line should give QB Graham Mertz some issues, and Kentucky’s defense—which ranks 14th in opponent points per play—should give Florida issues in their all around attack. Give me the ‘Cats as a short home favorite against a shaky Gators team.

MORE: NFL Betting: Week 4 Best Picks and Advice

NJ: USC -21.5 over Colorado.

It’s a difficult week for me trying to find games to bet on, so I’m going to fade Colorado for at least one more week. There is a price discount in this number because USC only beat Arizona State by 14 as a five-touchdown favorite last week. I find it likely that the Trojans were looking ahead to this week’s game because of the resurgence of Colorado; these two schools will have recruiting battles against each other as long as Deion Sanders is in Boulder.

I’m expecting a huge day from future No. 1 pick Caleb Williams and the Trojans offense against a Colorado defense that’s without Travis Hunter. On the other side, Colorado has too many pass blocking concerns to take advantage of USC’s vulnerable defense. I can see USC naming the score in a game they’ll be motivated to play in.

CM: LSU -2.5 over Ole Miss.

After they got embarrassed by Alabama last week, I am out on Ole Miss. LSU being a little undervalued here on the road is not that much of a surprise. They will be held to their loss against FSU in Week 1, but I think they are far and away the better team in this matchup. Tigers QB Jayden Daniels should have himself a day facing a defense that allows 226.3 passing yards per game. They have the tools to take down the Rebels at home.

BW: Coastal Carolina ML +210 over Georgia Southern.

This seems like a spot to get Coastal at its lowest. They’re coming off a national TV loss last Thursday and seem like they’ve got lots of holes in their game. Yet, diving deeper, last week’s game might be more of an outlier. The Chanticleers were penalized 10 times in the game, which is double their yearly average. This is one of the lesser-flagged teams in the country, and with a likely progression to the mean, Coastal will have stronger opportunities to convert.

Coastal comes in with a slight rest advantage, which could come in handy several weeks into the season. Georgia Southern is also coming off a big win, so the number is likely slightly inflated in their direction. Coastal can have an explosive offense, and after a down week, I expect it to show up this Saturday.

NJ: Iowa State ML +800 over Oklahoma.

Surprisingly, I don’t have an underdog on my short list of potential betting options for this week. Still, I dug deep and will take a massive ‘dog that might have a better probability to win than the odds indicate. I’m not sure if 4-0 Oklahoma is good because they’ve merely played Arkansas State, SMU, Tulsa and Cincinnati.

Maybe we still won’t know until the Sooners have their annual date in Dallas against Texas next week because Iowa State is down this season. But Cyclones head coach Matt Campbell has excelled in the underdog role in his career. After two miserable performances against Iowa and Ohio, Iowa State’s offense showed some life against Oklahoma State in their Big 12 opener. I don’t expect the upset, but if there is a top-15 team most likely to lose outright this week, it would be the Sooners.

CM: South Carolina ML +350 over Tennessee.

Things I don’t trust: Players/coaches that cry before winning it all, and Joe Milton.

I am not sold on this Vols team. They did not show up in Gainesville two weeks ago and got embarrassed by Graham Mertz. South Carolina held their own against Georgia as a 26.5-point underdog, losing by only 10 points. They will be feeling good coming off that win over Mississippi State. Hopefully Spencer Rattler can be the dark horse Heisman candidate some people think he is.

Ben, Nate and Colby will discuss all of their college football and NFL bets on Stadium Bets. Check out the new show across Stadium’s OTT and OTA channels. Also subscribe on Spotify and Apple for podcast episodes and follow Stadium Bets on Twitter for more sports betting content.