Comparing College Football Recruiting Rankings to Number of NFL Players Produced

    Which college football programs produce the most NFL talent relative to the caliber of high school players they enroll?

    The NFL’s 53-man rosters were set on Sunday and Alabama led all schools with 56 former players on an active 2019 NFL roster, not including players who are on injured reserve, the physically unable to perform list, suspended or on a practice squad.

    We’ve previously analyzed the relationships in college football between the financial investment in recruiting and recruiting class rankings, and recruiting class rankings and wins, and now we’re looking at how recruiting class rankings compare to the number of NFL players college football programs produce.

    There’s no perfect way to analyze which programs produce the most pros relative to the talent they enroll but we’re going to be transparent in our methodology.

    This study only looks at the 1,696 players who were one of the 32 active NFL rosters as of Tuesday afternoon.

    Since college football players must spend at least three years in school before declaring for the NFL draft, the youngest rookies in the NFL this season were members of the 2016 recruiting class.

    Therefore, our analysis started with the 2016 recruiting class and we worked backward from there.

    In total, we analyzed 10 years of recruiting data (2007 to ’16), using the 247Sports Composite rankings.

    Nearly 93 percent of active NFL players (1,573 of 1,696) have nine or fewer years of experience in the league, which is why we looked at 10 years of recruiting data from 2007 to 2016.

    In the scatter plot below, we graphed every FBS program based on its average recruiting class ranking over that 10-year span compared to the number of active NFL players it has produced.

    UL Monroe and UNLV have the unfortunate distinction of being the only FBS programs without an active NFL player.

    Here’s a list of the top 15 schools in terms of the number of active NFL players produced:

    1. Alabama: 56
    2. Ohio State: 43
    T3. Florida: 35
    T3. LSU: 35
    T5. Florida State: 32
    T5: Miami (FL): 32
    7. Oklahoma: 31
    8. Georgia: 30
    T9. Penn State: 28
    T9. Texas A&M: 28
    T9. Wisconsin: 28
    12. Clemson: 27
    T13. Auburn: 26
    T13. Stanford: 26
    T15: Notre Dame: 25
    T15. USC: 25
    T15: Washington: 25

    At the bottom of this story, there’s a chart with the 1-to-130 rankings of the number of NFL players produced by every FBS school.

    Over the 10-year period examined, 20 schools averaged a top-25 recruiting class, according to the 247Sports Composite rankings. That means there’s roughly five spots available in a given year for the other 111 FBS programs to compete for a top-25 class and usually those other schools are competing for spots in the 20s.

    The chart below lists those 20 programs in descending order of the number of active NFL players they produced, then by their average recruiting class ranking from 2007 to ’16.

    In an effort to measure player development efficiency, the last column shows the percentage of the number of active NFL players a college football program has produced compared to the number of blue-chip recruits (4- or 5-star recruits) it enrolled from 2007 to ’16.

    This admittedly isn’t a perfect metric to analyze which schools best capitalize on the high-level talent they enroll because it doesn’t account for players who transferred in or out of a program, or players from those recruiting classes who made the NFL but are no longer in the league or are currently on the physically unable to perform list/on injured reserve/suspended.

    But to some degree, it can measure what schools have churned out the most pros relative to how many elite prospects they’ve enrolled. The metric is especially interesting for schools like USC and Texas, which arguably have fewer active NFL players – 25 and 22, respectively – than you might expect for schools that enrolled 139 and 150 blue-chip recruits, respectively, from 2007 to ’16.

    School 4/5-Star Recruits (2007-16) Avg. Recruiting Class Ranking (2007-16) Number of NFL Players on 53-Man Roster Active NFL Players/Blue-Chip Recruits
    Alabama 180 2.8 56 31.1%
    Ohio State 143 13.2 43 30.0%
    LSU 150 6.4 35 23.3%
    Florida 132 7.3 35 26.5%
    Florida State 130 7.8 32 24.6%
    Miami (FL) 88 16.2 32 36.3%
    Oklahoma 109 12.7 31 28.4%
    Georgia 127 7.8 30 23.6%
    Texas A&M 86 19.3 28 32.5%
    Clemson 93 16.9 27 29.0%
    Auburn 117 10.8 26 22.2%
    USC 139 5.7 25 17.9%
    Notre Dame 129 10.8 25 19.3%
    Tennessee 104 13.5 24 23.0%
    South Carolina 73 20.6 24 32.8%
    Michigan 110 15.4 23 20.9%
    UCLA 98 24.1 23 23.4%
    Texas 150 7.6 22 14.6%
    Ole Miss 69 20.2 21 30.4%
    Oregon 75 19.9 16 21.3%

    NOTE: The number of 4/5-star recruits does not take into account transfers who left or joined a program.

    The table above shows which schools have done the most with the most talent (and the least with the most talent) – at least relative to recruiting rankings.

    It shouldn’t be a surprise that nine of those 20 schools are in the SEC since that has arguably been the best/deepest/insert adjective here conference in the country in the last 10 to 15 years. Its geographic footprint includes some of the most talent-rich states in the country and many of the conference members are among the schools that spend the most annually on recruiting.

    The SEC arguably recruits better classes, top-to-bottom, than any other conference.

    Just look at South Carolina, whose average recruiting class ranking from 2007 to ’16 was roughly 20th nationally, yet the Gamecocks had the eighth-best average ranking among SEC schools during that span.

    But does better recruiting across the SEC lead to the production of more pros?

    The numbers say yes, and by a fairly large margin.

    Conference Number of Active NFL Players Average Per School
    SEC 344 24.5
    Big Ten 250 17.8
    ACC 218 15.5
    Pac-12 196 16.3
    Big 12 132 13.2
    American Athletic 99 8.2
    Mountain West 65 5.4
    Conference USA 61 4.3
    MAC 46 3.8
    Sun Belt 20 2.0

     

    What about the opposite end of the spectrum from the Alabamas, Ohio States and USCs of the world?

    What schools have taken middling, or worse, recruiting classes and produced more active NFL players than one would expect based on the star rankings of its players?

    Wisconsin has 28 active NFL players, which is tied for the ninth-most nationally, even though the Badgers’ average recruiting class ranking from 2007 to ’16 was 41.4.

    Wisconsin doing more with less isn’t a new concept.

    The Badgers spent just $350,000 on recruiting in 2018, the 50th-most among Power Five schools Stadium examined and less than many Group of Five schools, but their recruiting budget hasn’t typically limited their win totals.

    Similarly to Wisconsin, in terms of geography, conference and division, Iowa has produced more NFL talent than would be expected for a school whose average recruiting class ranking was 46.5.

    There are 24 former Hawkeyes on an active NFL roster.

    Other notable overachievers include N.C. State (19 active NFL players, average recruiting class ranking of 44.9), UCF (16, 66.1), Temple (15, 79.5), Memphis (12, 78.1), Central Michigan (10, 99.6) and Utah State (9, 105.9).

    Notable underachievers include Arizona (5, 45.0), Minnesota (5, 51.0), Baylor (7, 42.2), Arizona State (10, 33.2) and Arkansas (12, 26.7).

    Here’s the complete 1-to-130 list of FBS programs, listed in descending order of the number of active NFL players they’ve produced, then in alphabetical order in the case of ties.

    Rank School Active NFL Players Avg. Recruiting Class Ranking (2007-16)
    1 Alabama 56 2.8
    2 Ohio State 43 13.2
    T3 Florida 35 7.3
    T3 LSU 35 6.4
    T5 Florida State 32 7.8
    T5 Miami (FL) 32 16.2
    7 Oklahoma 31 12.7
    8 Georgia 30 7.8
    T9 Penn State 28 28.0
    T9 Texas A&M 28 19.3
    T9 Wisconsin 28 41.4
    12 Clemson 27 16.9
    T13 Auburn 26 10.8
    T13 Stanford 26 27.8
    T15 Notre Dame 25 10.8
    T15 USC 25 5.7
    T15 Washington 25 31.0
    T18 Iowa 24 46.5
    T18 South Carolina 24 20.6
    T18 Tennessee 24 13.5
    T21 Michigan 23 15.4
    T21 UCLA 23 24.1
    23 Texas 22 7.6
    24 Ole Miss 21 20.2
    25 Mississippi State 20 30.4
    T26 California 19 31.5
    T26 Nebraska 19 27.0
    T26 NC State 19 44.9
    T29 Oregon 16 19.9
    T29 UCF 16 66.1
    T29 West Virginia 16 35.9
    T32 Louisville 15 42.0
    T32 North Carolina 15 25.2
    T32 Temple 15 79.5
    T32 Utah 15 48.2
    T36 Michigan State 14 30.8
    T36 Pittsburgh 14 37.2
    T36 TCU 14 41.5
    T36 Virginia Tech 14 27.3
    T40 Boston College 13 57.5
    T40 Colorado 13 53.1
    T40 Illinois 13 47.7
    T40 Virginia 13 41.4
    T44 Arkansas 12 26.7
    T44 Maryland 12 39.8
    T44 Memphis 12 78.1
    T44 Missouri 12 35.4
    T44 Oklahoma State 12 31.9
    T49 Kentucky 11 48.5
    T49 Northwestern 11 56.9
    T49 Rutgers 11 43.4
    T49 Texas Tech 11 40.2
    T53 Arizona State 10 33.2
    T53 BYU 10 56.0
    T53 Central Michigan 10 99.6
    T53 Cincinnati 10 66.8
    T53 Houston 10 65.2
    T53 Kansas State 10 58.0
    T53 Oregon State 10 51.8
    T53 Purdue 10 63.5
    T53 SMU 10 75.4
    T53 Southern Miss 10 70.2
    T53 Vanderbilt 10 53.2
    T64 Boise State 9 68.7
    T64 Colorado State 9 89.7
    T64 Duke 9 61.3
    T64 Indiana 9 59.9
    T64 Utah State 9 105.9
    T64 Washington State 9 57.3
    T70 UConn 8 82.7
    T70 Florida Atlantic 8 99.7
    T70 Toledo 8 82.8
    T70 Wyoming 8 105.4
    T74 Baylor 7 42.2
    T74 Fresno State 7 82.6
    T74 San Jose State 7 98.9
    T74 Western Kentucky 7 103.9
    T78 Georgia Tech 6 47.4
    T78 Marshall 6 68.1
    T78 South Florida 6 57.3
    T78 Tulane 6 89.8
    T82 Arizona 5 45.0
    T82 Kansas 5 56.5
    T82 Louisiana Tech 5 88.0
    T82 Minnesota 5 51.0
    T82 Northern Illinois 5 100.4
    T82 Old Dominion 5 115.9
    T82 Rice 5 95.0
    T82 San Diego State 5 75.8
    T82 Wake Forest 5 62.8
    T91 Akron 4 109.0
    T91 Appalachian State 4 117.3
    T91 East Carolina 4 82.3
    T91 Georgia State 4 122.1
    T91 Iowa State 4 62.0
    T91 Kent State 4 108.0
    T91 Nevada 4 94.6
    T91 Syracuse 4 61.2
    T91 Troy 4 96.1
    T91 UAB 4 95.7
    T91 Western Michigan 4 87.1
    T102 Florida International 3 93.9
    T102 Hawaii 3 88.1
    T102 UMass 3 115.0
    T102 Middle Tennessee 3 92.4
    T106 Air Force 2 108.7
    T106 Arkansas State 2 97.5
    T106 Army 2 115.8
    T106 Bowling Green 2 99.3
    T106 Buffalo 2 112.4
    T106 Eastern Michigan 2 112.8
    T106 Miami (OH) 2 95.6
    T106 New Mexico 2 96.1
    T106 North Texas 2 99.3
    T106 Ohio 2 102.7
    T106 Texas State 2 110.0
    T117 Ball State 1 102.0
    T117 Charlotte 1 123.2
    T117 Coastal Carolina 1 138.0
    T117 Georgia Southern 1 112.8
    T117 Liberty 1 151.9
    T117 Louisiana 1 100.1
    T117 Navy 1 109.6
    T117 New Mexico State 1 112.2
    T117 South Alabama 1 103.9
    T117 Tulsa 1 81.8
    T117 UTEP 1 115.3
    T117 UTSA 1 114.8
    T129 UL Monroe 0 112.3
    T129 UNLV 0 99.0

     

    MORE: Georgia Spent $2.6M on Recruiting Last Year. How Much Did Your School Spend?

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