As part of their rebuilding effort, the Dallas Mavericks used a lottery selection last year on guard Dennis Smith Jr., who ended up being named to the All-Rookie second team. Dallas followed that move up by making a trade in the 2018 NBA Draft to grab highly touted guard Luka Doncic.

The team appeared to have its backcourt of the future in place.

And when you look at Smith Jr.’s raw numbers through 12 games this year, it’s easy to understand the optimism.

Year	Points Per Game	FG %	3-Point %
2017-18	15.2	39.5	31.3
2018-19 (through Nov. 13)	15.2	44.9	39.1

 

The most notable change is from behind the arc. Smith Jr. was a 36 percent 3-point shooter in college, and if that ability translates to the NBA, he could develop into a deadly all-around scorer. After a rough rookie season from deep, Smith Jr. is converting on more opportunities this year.

“Just working on my mechanics,” Smith Jr. said on his improved stroke from 3-point range. “I’m really getting a lot more spot shots [and] shots off the ball. I’ve been working on that a lot so it’s translating to the game right now.”

DENNIS SMITH JR. DRIBBLES BEFORE SHOT: (via NBA.com/stats)

Dribbles Before Shot	2017-18 Frequency	2018-19 Frequency
0	18.7%	23.4%
1	7.0%	11.0%
2	9.7%	14.9%
3-6	34.4%	26.6%
7+	30.1%	24.0%

 

Smith has continued to get shots at the rim and in the paint, but he is getting more catch-and-shoot and spot-up shots this season. Among rookie and second-year point guards, Smith Jr. is third in both points per game and 3-point percentage. Last season, 58.5 percent of his 3-point makes were assisted.

This year, that number is up to 77.8 percent.

However, analytics appear to muddle Smith Jr.’s hot start and his long-term fit with Doncic. As NBA front offices continue to use analytics and advanced data to drive decisions, Smith Jr. is the latest player where the eye test doesn’t fit with the analytics.

Amazingly, Smith Jr.’s raw numbers are worse in wins than in losses this season. This is rare for most players that get consistent minutes, especially starters.

Statistics Through Nov. 13	Points	FG %	3-Point %
Smith Jr. in Wins	13.2	40.7	31.8
Smith Jr. in Losses	16.6	47.4	45.8

 

The advanced data isn’t much better. According to NBA.com/stats, the Mavericks have three five-man lineups that have played at least 48 minutes together this season. Smith Jr. is featured in all of those lineups, but only one has a positive net rating at 0.2.

While Harrison Barnes might be complicit in this metric (he’s not in this lineup, but is part of the other two), Smith Jr. is a significant component as well. His on-court/off-court splits, according to basketball-reference.com, are telling.

Statistics Through Nov. 13	Offensive Rating	Defensive Rating
Smith Jr. On the Court	108.0	117.3
Smith Jr. Off the Court	116.3	111.0

 

Smith Jr. has boosted Dallas’ offensive rating when he’s on the court this year from last season, but the Mavericks are still more efficient with him off the floor. Defensively, Smith Jr. has continued to struggle.

But this isn’t the biggest question that Dallas faces when evaluating its young guard…

The Mavericks have invested heavily in Doncic and Smith Jr. as a backcourt pairing. They’ve spent two lottery selections to acquire the guards and even traded a future first-round pick for Doncic. There is a lot riding on these two guys and the early results have not been promising.

According to NBA.com/stats, Doncic and Smith Jr. have a -10.6 net rating in 315 minutes together this year.

“I’ve moved more so to playing off the ball and spot shots,” Smith Jr. said on his fit with Doncic. “Just figuring out my role. [We] should play well off each other.”

There are some important caveats with Doncic and Smith Jr. fitting together. Both players have struggled with turnovers, which is expected. Through 12 games, Doncic has a 1.07:1 assist to turnover ratio, while Smith Jr. sports a 1.15:1 mark. This limits their offensive numbers despite outstanding shooting percentages.

Even then, it’s not all bad for Smith Jr.

He is getting to the basket more often and creating easy opportunities for Dallas. He’s also shooting the ball well in a new role as a spot-up threat. If Smith Jr. can improve on defense and maintain his hot shooting start, those win-loss splits should flip.

While the analytics and advanced data aren’t promising at the moment, the eye test suggests Smith Jr. is making strides in his second year. If he can adjust to his changing role with his new backcourt mate, then those analytics should eventually catch up with our eyes.