Five Factors That College Football Bettors Should Remember in Week 10

    As we get deeper into the college football season, here are a few factors to consider when looking at the point spreads for Week 10. Ten home underdogs

    As we get deeper into the college football season, here are a few factors to consider when looking at the point spreads for Week 10.

    Ten home underdogs won straight up in Week 9

    Week 9’s top storyline was that ten Power Five teams covered and won straight up in the home underdog role on Friday and Saturday.

    Boston College topped Miami and Minnesota handled Indiana on Friday night. On Saturday, Northwestern and Michigan State both came away with Big 10 victories in the early window, while Kansas won their first Big 12 game since 2016 with a win as 13-point underdogs against TCU.

    The carnage continued with Pittsburgh beating Duke, California shocking Washington, Syracuse downing North Carolina State, Oklahoma State taking out Texas, and Arizona thumping Oregon to end the night.

    Occasionally there will be weeks like this where multiple underdogs have success. There will also be stretches where the favorites dominate and cover spreads.

    This just shows how volatile college football can be.

    Going forward, I can see oddsmakers shading the lines to give more respect to the underdogs, which could lead to point-spread value on the favorites. Especially in November when favorites in games have something significant to play for, and the underdogs may not have the same motivation.

    Oklahoma State faces a terrible scheduling spot

    The home underdog that impacted the College Football Playoff picture the most in Week 9 was Oklahoma State. They defeated No. 6 Texas 38-35 in a game where the Cowboys never trailed.

    Oklahoma State was one of the teams I debated picking last week because I thought Texas was overrated. My concern about backing the Cowboys was based on their Big 12 struggles, which included home losses to Texas Tech and Iowa State. Oklahoma State also lost to a below-average Kansas State squad before the bye week.

    After coming up with a huge victory at home, the Cowboys hit the road for an early start at Baylor in Week 10. The week after, they play rival Oklahoma in the always entertaining “Bedlam Series.”

    In what should be a textbook “look-ahead game,” this is an obvious spot to fade Mike Gundy’s boys.

    Oklahoma State opened as an eight-point favorite on the road. Baylor is coming off a 58-14 loss to West Virginia in which Bears QB Charlie Brewer suffered a concussion.

    Despite the humiliating loss, I’ll be tempted to bet on Baylor against an Oklahoma State team that is only a few weeks removed from some horrible performances of their own. If Brewer is cleared to play, a small bet on Baylor is definitely reasonable.

    Notre Dame is playing a “home” game on the road

    The point spread in Notre Dame’s trip to Northwestern was a line I thought wasn’t big enough when the numbers were released on Sunday. Notre Dame opened as a 7.5-point favorite and are anywhere between -8 and -8.5 as of Monday evening.

    An under-looked factor for the matchup is that it will feel like a Notre Dame home game on Saturday evening in Evanston. Notre Dame has a huge fanbase in Chicago, and there’s a lot of excitement surrounding the program that will enter November with an 8-0 record. Most Big Ten schools get strong traveling support to the Chicago area when their team plays Northwestern.

    Notre Dame will be no different.

    I also think this line is off due to Northwestern’s showing last week against Wisconsin. The Badgers were as high as a seven-point road favorite early last week and that line dropped a few points when starting quarterback Alex Hornibrook appeared on the injury report with a concussion. Hornibrook didn’t play in the game and Wisconsin closed as a 4.5-point favorite.

    Notre Dame is significantly better than Wisconsin, and I can see the point spread going up for this week’s game against Northwestern. I would consider betting Notre Dame at anything under -10, especially if you also believe that the atmosphere will favor the Fighting Irish.

    Look to bet on Alabama for the first half

    Alabama had their bye last week, so this is your reminder to bet on them to cover the first half spread this weekend. Alabama has an 8-0 record against the first-half point spread and is 5-3 when it comes to covering the full-game point spread. Each time they failed to cover was when their opponent scored a meaningless touchdown in the fourth quarter after Bama pulled their starters.

    Alabama plays at LSU this week, and it’s the shortest point spread in a game involving the Crimson Tide this season. Alabama is either a 13.5 or 14-point favorite depending on where you get your lines.

    The first-half point spreads become available at the end of the week, and that will be the best bet to take if you like Alabama in this matchup. Remember that star LSU linebacker Devin White is suspended for the first half of this game because of a targeting penalty that he committed in the second half of LSU’s last game against Mississippi State. White would’ve been a huge part of the Tigers’ defensive game plan in slowing down Tua Tagovailoa and the Crimson Tide offense.

    Alabama at -7 or -7.5 for the first-half spread is definitely a bet worth making in light of White’s absence.

    A shift of power in the ACC

    The point spread in Week 10’s Louisville-Clemson showdown is a great way to measure how far these programs have grown apart from the last time they met at Clemson.

    It was only 25 months ago that Louisville was a one-point favorite against a Deshaun Watson-led Clemson squad.

    Louisville was ranked No. 3 in the country, and Lamar Jackson had accounted for 25 touchdowns in the first four games of the season. No. 5 Clemson ended up winning 42-36 in an instant classic that was en route to a national championship victory.

    Fast forward to this upcoming weekend, and Clemson is a 37.5-point favorite against Louisville, which is a 38.5-point difference between the 2016 point spread.

    When it comes to the dumpster fire that is currently Louisville’s football program, it appears that Bobby Petrino’s days as head coach are likely numbered. If the Cardinals continue to lose, they’ll be in line for a new coach come December.

    After a 59-10 win at Florida State, Clemson is starting to hit its stride. True freshman QB Trevor Lawrence threw four touchdowns in the win and is gaining confidence as the full-time signal-caller.

    If you are looking for action on a game involving Clemson, you should treat the Tigers like Alabama – either bet on them or avoid the game completely. If you think 37.5 points is too high in this game against Louisville, don’t bet on or against Clemson until they reach the College Football Playoff.

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