No. 1 Alabama at No. 4 LSU provides the first top-five matchup of the college football season, and the outcome could impact the College Football Playoff as much as any single result in the regular season.

Obviously, one of the top teams in the country will lose in Baton Rouge, but don’t be surprised if more than one team ranked in the top 10 falls in Week 10.

Here’s the case for how several teams that play top-10 opponents this weekend could be victorious, including three that play at home.

 

No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 11 Kentucky

The case for Kentucky: We all know what happened the last time Georgia went on the road. The Bulldogs lost 36-16 at LSU. They also let Missouri hang with them in the second half in Columbia.

This is the biggest Kentucky home game (given the stakes, maybe ever?) since the 17th-ranked ‘Cats hosted, and beat, No. 1 LSU in 2007. They’ll need the home fans at Kroger Field in Lexington to respond accordingly.

You could make the case that Kentucky actually has somewhat of a similar profile to LSU as a run-first team but with a stronger defense (tied with Clemson with a national-best 13 points allowed per game) and an offense with more question marks.

The path to a win for the Wildcats is a low-scoring, run-heavy game where Kentucky controls the clock on the shoulders of running back Benny Snell while holding Georgia’s rushing attack in check.

Vegas favors Georgia by 9.5 to 10 points.

 

No. 14 Penn State at No. 5 Michigan

The case for Penn State: With two losses already this season, Penn State’s Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff hopes are all but over. However, the Nittany Lions can still play the role of spoiler for a Wolverines team that’s knocking on the door of the top four.

Penn State has already proven it can play with some of the Big Ten’s top programs, but it has struggled closing games. The Nittany Lions led then-No. 4 Ohio State by 12 with eight minutes to play before losing by one, and it was leading Michigan State 17-14 before losing in the final minute.

Led by dual-threat quarterback Trace McSorley, Penn State is averaging 41 points per game thanks to a top-25 rushing attack and a versatile group of receivers.

Freshman receiver KJ Hamler is averaging a touchdown every 4.8 touches on offense. Junior wide receiver Juwan Johnson has great size at 6-4. Freshman tight end Pat Freiermuth, who has four touchdowns on 13 catches, is a dangerous target in the red zone at 6-5, 260 pounds.

Moving the ball against Michigan (14.4 points allowed/game, national-best 220 yards allowed/game) in the Big House won’t be easy, but perhaps Penn State can win a game by scoring in the low-to-mid 20s. It has the sixth-best average kickoff return distance in the country of more than 28 yards, so maybe it’s a big kick return that swings the game.

The Nittany Lions’ defense isn’t on the level of Michigan, but they’re still holding opponents to 22 points per game.

McSorley had more than 350 yards of total offense last season against a stout Michigan defense. Can he do it again, this time on the road?

 

No. 3 Notre Dame vs. Northwestern

The case for Northwestern: Northwestern was likely an overlooked opponent by Notre Dame fans when the Fighting Irish’s schedule was first announced, given their games against Michigan, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Florida State and USC. Now, as the Fighting Irish try to finish the season undefeated and make their first College Football Playoff appearance, Northwestern is one of the final, and potentially more challenging, hurdles in the way.

Northwestern leads the Big Ten West thanks to four straight wins, most recently a 31-17 win over then-No. 20 Wisconsin at home last weekend. The Wildcats also beat Michigan State by 10 in East Lansing – when the Spartans were ranked – and Purdue in West Lafayette (something that Ohio State can’t say), in addition to a narrow loss to Michigan.

They have a top-30 defense, according to Football Outsiders’ S&P+ rankings, and while turnover-prone, quarterback Clayton Thorson can put up huge numbers. He was 41-of-64 for 455 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions against Nebraska, in addition to 383- and 373-yard games against Akron and Michigan State, respectively.

Notre Dame, which has only played two true road games, has had close wins against Ball State (eight points), Michigan (seven points), Vanderbilt (five points) and Pitt (five points). The case for Northwestern is that a hot Wildcats team airs it out with Thorson, while forcing Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book (four interceptions in the last three games) to turn the ball over and holding running back Dexter Williams to a similar stat line as Pitt’s defense did (13 carries for 31 yards).

 

No. 7 Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech

The case for Texas Tech: Keep an eye on Lubbock, Texas, to potentially produce this week’s Big 12 upset special. Texas Tech has the third-ranked passing offense in the country at 376 yards per game – more than 70 yards more per game than Oklahoma’s explosive offense. These are two of the 15 teams in the country that average more than 40 points per game, so the Red Raiders would welcome a shootout.

They haven’t played a team ranked as high as Oklahoma this season, but the Red Raiders have won at Oklahoma State, then ranked No. 15, and at TCU. They’re the only team that’s beaten Houston, which is now ranked in the AP Top 25.

Texas was +3 in the turnover department in its 48-45 win over Oklahoma in the Red River Showdown, including two turnovers by Sooners quarterback Kyler Murray. Oklahoma has only turned the ball over six times this season, so it’s hardly a sustainable strategy to say, “Win the turnover battle by a significant margin,” but Texas Tech can hope to shorten the Sooners’ drives through third and fourth down stops.

The Red Raiders are holding opponents to a 32 percent success rate on third down and 35 percent on fourth down, both of which rank in the top 25 nationally. Opponents are scoring just 74 percent of the time against them when reaching the red zone, which is the 19th-best rate in the country.

Texas Tech’s offense has almost matched Oklahoma’s red zone success rate in terms of scoring and touchdown percentage. There’s reason to believe that if quarterback Alan Bowman, the Red Raiders’ six-man running back rotation and top receiver Antoine Wesley can keep pace with Heisman Trophy candidate Kyler Murray, and if their defense can come up with a few timely stops or turnovers, Texas Tech can stay competitive late into the second half.