How to Bet College Basketball Conference Tournaments
These power conference picks could make you some cash.
Two years ago, I wrote an article giving out five tips for betting on college basketball’s power conference tournaments. We missed out on March Madness last season due to COVID-19, so it’s time to check back in and see which philosophies still apply after this year’s unique college basketball season.
Most of my points from 2019 are still relevant, including betting on bubble teams and schools that want to improve their NCAA Tournament seeding. I’ll also look to fade contending teams that are more concerned about the Big Dance next week and target favorable bracket paths when trying to identify value in the futures market.
Something that is less important this season is knowing which fanbases travel well. While some conference tournaments will have a limited amount of fans, it likely won’t be enough to create an advantage for a team.
Here are my thoughts on the six power conference tournaments.
Note: My picks could change based on new information and any news that breaks after the publication of this preview. I will discuss the finalized bets I make on a Periscope show I host called Weekend Warriors. The show will be live for an hour this Wednesday at 7 p.m. ET and can be seen on Stadium’s Periscope channel or Stadium’s Twitter.
ACC
Bubble teams: It’s been a down year for the ACC, especially since the conference had three No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament two seasons ago. North Carolina and Duke being on the bubble for most of the season is the main reason for the league underachieving. Also having traditionally strong programs like Louisville and Syracuse on the bubble has watered down the ACC as a whole.
North Carolina, Duke, Louisville, Syracuse and Georgia Tech are the five teams currently on the bubble. All of those schools could use a win or two to cement their place in the NCAA Tournament. Duke needs multiple wins in the ACC Tournament after ending the regular season on a three-game losing streak. The Blue Devils are the No. 10 seed and could play as many as five games in five days if they make Saturday’s championship game.
Teams that want to improve their seed: Virginia and Florida State were the two consistent teams in the ACC this season, but have slipped a little bit in NCAA Tournament projections over the last few weeks. Virginia lost three straight games before ending the season with two wins against Miami and Louisville, while Florida State ended the regular season with an upset loss against Notre Dame. It’s hard to tell how motivated these two teams will be, but I would predict they’ll want to improve their seed this week.
Teams focused on NCAA Tournament: Virginia Tech is a No. 8 seed in Stadium’s latest bracket projections, so they’re likely in the NCAA Tournament field. The Hokies earned a double bye this week but they have only played four games since Feb. 3 due to COVID-19 protocols, and we’ve seen teams in college basketball struggle after a virus-related layoff. The Hokies didn’t play last week and are a team I’ll look to fade in the conference tournament.
Clemson is another team securely in the field. They play the winner of Pittsburgh-Miami on Wednesday, and with a win, they’d play a rested and motivated Georgia Tech in Thursday’s quarterfinals, which I would likely favor the Yellow Jackets in.
Teams that have a favorable path: The path for No. 6 North Carolina to make the semifinals sticks out. They play the winner of Notre Dame-Wake Forest on Wednesday and then would get Virginia Tech in the quarterfinals. Unfortunately, that path is built into the odds, as they are the third favorite to win the conference tournament at +450.
Georgia Tech has a double bye going into the quarterfinals and are the sixth favorite to win the ACC Tournament at 10/1. I mentioned they’ll have the motivational edge if they play Clemson in the quarterfinals, and they’re in the half of the bracket with Virginia, who has been far from convincing down the stretch.
Early-round bet: The only second-round game currently confirmed is Syracuse-NC State on Wednesday afternoon. I will be looking to bet Syracuse in that one.
Potential later-round bets: A game most neutral fans would like to watch on Wednesday is a second-round matchup between Duke and Louisville, with the Blue Devils getting a shot at avenging two losses against the Cardinals this season. The Blue Devils were a five-point favorite in their overtime loss on Feb. 27, so I would expect Duke to be a small favorite in this game. But if they are an underdog, I’ll look to back Duke over Louisville.
The potential quarterfinal games that I’m looking to bet on is Georgia Tech against Clemson and North Carolina against Virginia Tech. Those potential plays will be dependent on the point spread because I expect both teams to be favorites.
Big East
Bubble teams: It looks like UConn has done enough to get in the NCAA Tournament, and they are now the betting favorite to win the Big East Tournament due to recent events surrounding Villanova and Creighton.
That leaves the bubble teams as Xavier, Seton Hall and St. John’s. Seton Hall will play St. John’s on Thursday afternoon in the quarterfinals, which is a quick rematch of a game played over the weekend that St. John’s won by 10. It’s a must-win game for both teams to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive.
Team that wants to improve their seed: Not only will UConn be looking to improve their NCAA Tournament seed, but I would imagine they are excited to be back at the Big East Tournament. It felt out of place for the Huskies to be playing in the AAC and now they’re back at Madison Square Garden, a building where the program has many fond memories. However, the value on UConn at +210 to win the Big East is gone, and they aren’t going to sneak up on any teams this month.
Teams focused on NCAA Tournament: Villanova lost star guard Collin Gillespie to a season-ending injury last week against Creighton and then lost the next game at Providence. Creighton head coach Greg McDermott was suspended for racially insensitive comments he made to his players, but on Monday he was re-instated ahead of the Big East Tournament. I would shy away from betting on Villanova or Creighton this week.
Teams that have a favorable path: The winner of Seton Hall and St. John’s could potentially play Villanova in the first semifinal on Friday. Because of Villanova being weakened by the Gillespie injury, that’s a more favorable path than the bottom half of the bracket. I like Seton Hall to beat St. John’s, so I will consider placing a future bet on the Pirates.
Early-round bet: I’m going to look to back Seton Hall on Thursday against St. John’s. The point spread is not available at the time of this publication, so that’s something I’ll monitor this week and tweet out if I make any bets.
Potential later-round bet: There’s nothing that sticks out right now. Maybe taking Seton Hall over Villanova in their potential matchup, but if I bet a future on Seton Hall I’ll likely avoid placing more money on them.
Big 12
Bubble teams: The Big 12 Tournament won’t have bubble drama this year. They have seven teams that are currently locked into an NCAA Tournament spot and three teams in TCU, Kansas State and Iowa State that would have to win four games in four days to make the NCAA Tournament via automatic qualifier.
Teams that want to improve their seed: There won’t be bubble implications, but the competition in the later rounds should be great at the Big 12 Tournament. I can see all the teams outside of Baylor looking to improve their seed in the NCAA Tournament. It might be a tough conference tournament to handicap because of the lack of motivational edges, but it should be very entertaining to watch.
Team focused on NCAA Tournament: I excluded Baylor from the list of teams that want to improve their NCAA Tournament seeding because they are locked into a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The 21-1 Bears, who recently had a three-week COVID-19 layoff, suffered a hiccup against Kansas at the end of February in their only loss.
Head coach Scott Drew was outspoken about his team’s pause after the loss to Kansas, and that was the first signal to me that they are more concerned about the NCAA Tournament than the conference tourney. Baylor ended the season strong with three wins against good competition to solidify themselves as one of the best teams in the country. I’ll be looking to fade Baylor against the spread in the conference tournament because I question their motivation this week.
Teams that have a favorable path: Baylor is in the top half of the Big 12 bracket, which also includes West Virginia and Oklahoma State. Because of my concern with Baylor’s motivation, I think those two teams have a more favorable path than the bottom part that includes Kansas, Texas and Texas Tech.
Oklahoma State just upset West Virginia in Morgantown on Saturday without Cade Cunningham and Isaac Likekele. Even if those Cowboys return next game, I like West Virginia to bounce back and beat Oklahoma State. That makes West Virginia to win the Big 12 Tournament at 7/1 a bet that I’ll be looking to make.
Early-round bet: I have no interest in betting the underwhelming first-round games of this tournament. I like West Virginia to beat Oklahoma State, but I’m not sure if I would bet them to cover the point spread. The matchup between Texas and Texas Tech should be a great game on Thursday night, but I don’t have a betting opinion on that game right now.
Potential later-round bet: If it ends up being West Virginia and Baylor in the first semifinal on Friday then I’ll be looking at the Mountaineers plus the points. The two teams played at West Virginia last week, and Baylor was a five-point favorite, so I’ll be hoping for West Virginia +7 or better.
Big Ten
Bubble teams: The Big Ten definitely has six teams in the NCAA Tournament. Maryland, Rutgers and Michigan State all are likely in, but those three teams might want to win one more game just to sleep easier leading up to Selection Sunday. Indiana has fallen off the bubble, so they’ll need to string together multiple wins to be considered again.
Teams that want to improve their seed: Illinois is the team that stands out for me. The Illini are coming off a three-game stretch where they won road games at Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State. The first two wins were without star guard Ayo Dosunmu, who returned to the court Saturday in the win against Ohio State. Illinois is projected to be a No. 1 seed and a trip to the title game will secure a top seed.
Last week, Ohio State was in the mix for a No. 1 seed, but now the Buckeyes have lost four straight games, including three at home. They aren’t trending in the right direction, but I would guess they’ll be refocused for this conference tournament and have a new goal of being a No. 2 seed for the NCAA Tournament.
Team focused on NCAA Tournament: Michigan has lost two of their last three games, but with a 19-3 record they are in a strong position to be a No. 1 seed regardless of what they do this weekend. I would stay away from betting the Wolverines in the favorite role.
Team that have a favorable path: On paper, Wisconsin has the most favorable path of the teams that don’t have a double bye, as they play the winner of Nebraska-Penn State. If they win that game, then it’ll set up a matchup against Iowa, who might be without Joe Wieskamp. I just don’t trust the Badgers, who have lost six of their last eight games.
Early-round bet: The Michigan State-Maryland game on Thursday is very intriguing, especially since Maryland lost to Northwestern and Penn State last week, putting their NCAA Tournament status in question. There’s currently no lean for me in that game, but I will tweet out a play if I have a bet.
Potential later-round bet: I mentioned Illinois as a team looking to improve their seed, but I will try to fade them as favorites in their first game at the Big Ten Tournament, which will be against Indiana or Rutgers. I’m not really high on Indiana or Rutgers, but it will be tempting to take them catching points against an Illinois team in a prime letdown spot coming off three marquee victories.
Pac-12
Bubble teams: There are 11 teams in the Pac-12 Tournament this season with Arizona serving a self-imposed postseason ban. Oregon, USC and Colorado are safely in the NCAA Tournament and UCLA should be joining them as well. Just to be safe, the Bruins would want to beat Oregon State on Thursday.
Teams that want to improve their seed: USC and Colorado are currently No. 5 seeds in Stadium’s NCAA Tournament projections. Both teams have room to improve, so I would expect them to be focused on a strong showing this week. That could make for an exciting semifinal between these two teams if they get there.
Team focused on NCAA Tournament: Oregon could also be looking to improve their seed, but I wonder how much energy they have left after a strong end to the season. The Ducks played one game between Jan. 10 and Feb. 3 because of a COVID-19 pause. Since Feb. 6, Oregon has won 10 of 11 games to play themselves off the bubble. As the tournament’s top seed, the Ducks might be more focused on preparing for the dance instead of dominating in Las Vegas.
Teams that have a favorable path: There isn’t a path that sticks out for a team in the Pac-12 Tournament.
Early-round bet: The first day of games are between teams not on the bubble, so I have no opinion.
Potential later-round bets: My only potential bet would be taking UCLA over Oregon in a semifinal, but I need to see how both teams look in their first games. There’s actually a good chance I don’t end up betting anything from this conference tournament.
SEC
Bubble teams: The SEC Tournament will only have 13 teams due to 2019 Final Four participant Auburn serving a postseason ban. The only bubble team in the conference is Ole Miss. There are six teams that are securely in the NCAA Tournament and the other schools, including Kentucky, need to win the SEC Tournament to go dancing.
Teams that want to improve their seed: Alabama is the top seed in the SEC Tournament and has been solidly on the two-line for the NCAA Tournament over the last several weeks. If there are a few upsets at the Big Ten Tournament involving Illinois and Iowa, then maybe a door opens for the Crimson Tide to nab a top seed. Even if they don’t, Alabama will still want to play well this week so that they are a No. 2 seed in a region where Gonzaga or Baylor isn’t a No. 1 seed.
Arkansas has really ascended up the ranks in college basketball. The Razorbacks haven’t lost since Jan. 30 and have won 11 straight SEC contests. Arkansas is on track to be a No. 3 seed, and there’s a shot they’ll capture a No. 2 seed if they win the conference tournament.
Team focused on NCAA Tournament: Missouri wasn’t expected to make the NCAA Tournament before this season, so being in the field might cause them to overlook the SEC tourney since they likely achieved their main goal. The Tigers have lost five of their last seven games and aren’t a team I would be looking to bet on — unless they are an underdog.
Team that has a favorable path: The path for Arkansas sets up well in the bottom part of the bracket. They avoid teams like Kentucky, Alabama, Florida and Tennessee until the championship game. A potential path of Georgia/Missouri in the quarterfinals and Ole Mss/LSU in the semifinals sets up nicely for the Razorbacks, who are 3/1 to win the tournament.
Early-round bet: There isn’t a bet I like in the four games that are currently set for the SEC Tournament.
Potential later-round bets: If Kentucky beats Mississippi State on Thursday then they’ll play Alabama on Friday. That could be a spot to back Kentucky as an underdog against an Alabama team that might feel the pressure of being the top seed in the tournament.
Later on Friday, taking a bubble-motivated Ole Miss over LSU will be something to consider if the Rebels win on Thursday.
