Inside The College Football Playoff Rankings: Oct. 21
Who's in the College Football Playoff puzzle and discussion? What teams are deep in the hunt, but aren't being talked about? Is USC still alive? How about Ole Miss? Georgia?
Who’s in the College Football Playoff puzzle and discussion? What teams are deep in the hunt, but aren’t being talked about? Is USC still alive? How about Ole Miss? Georgia?
Path To The Playoff: Week 7
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Everyone will have the same teams in the mix for the College Football Playoff four at the end of the rainbow, and why not? Ohio State keeps on rolling, Michigan State got its big win, TCU and Baylor are still unbeaten and LSU is on a tear, but this can and will all change in a hurry. At the midseason, don’t sleep on these teams who are still more in the hunt than you might think.
College Football Playoff: Teams to keep in mind
Georgia
The SEC champion is going to get into the playoff. There might be some screaming and yelling from the other leagues, but either a one-loss SEC champ is in no matter what – if it’s not LSU – or the team that beats the team in the championship game will get in. Georgia might be blown off after losing to Alabama and Tennessee, but there’s still plenty of time to turn this back around. One brutally ugly win over Missouri aside, and ignoring for a moment that the team just isn’t looking that good, if it beats Florida on Halloween, the East is there for the taking with Kentucky and Auburn left to play. Assuming the Bulldogs can handle the Georgia Southern option ground attack, and can do it again against Georgia Tech, at 10-2 and against an LSU or Alabama in the title game, the puck will be on the stick with a shot at the playoff if they can win out.
Iowa
No, Iowa isn’t even close to being in the discussion if it’s in the Big Ten East, the SEC or the Pac-12, but it’s not. It so far has given Pitt its only loss, it rocked Northwestern in Evanston, got by Wisconsin in Madison, and is 7-0 – and that’s all that matters. The Big Ten champion will get into the playoff as long as it has one loss – and of course it’ll be in if it’s unbeaten – so if Iowa can get through the yawner of a next month against Maryland, at Indiana, Minnesota and Purdue unscathed, then the road trip to Nebraska won’t matter. The Hawkeyes will have the West taken care of, and then all that matter is the Big Ten championship. Beat Michigan State or Ohio State, and 12-1 Iowa is in.
Lost in the Big 12 shuffle, Oklahoma State hasn’t been as splashy as TCU or Baylor, and it hasn’t been on the big stages like Oklahoma. But the Cowboys have fought and clawed their way to 6-0 with easy dates against Kansas and Iowa State still to play. A 10-2 season won’t bring a Big 12 title, but OSU can lose one game along the way and still be in it, depending on who that’s to. An 11-1 Big 12 champion will almost certainly be in, and with TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma all at home – and the toughest remaining road game at Texas Tech – the road to the Big 12 title goes through Stillwater.
Ole Miss
Here’s the crazy part – the losses don’t matter. The Florida game might have been ugly, and the Memphis gaffe stinks, but the Gators are in the East and the Tigers, of course, aren’t in the SEC. Ole Miss hasn’t been all that sharp since the great start, but it has the win over Alabama. Beat Texas A&M, win at Auburn, take care of Arkansas and LSU at home, and it’ll all come down to the Egg Bowl at Mississippi State for a shot at playing for the SEC title. 11-2 with an SEC championship – considering the amazing resume of wins it’ll take to get there – will be enough to get into the playoff.
Notre Dame
Here’s the problem. In order for Notre Dame to get in, that’ll mean at least two Power 5 conference champions are out. On the plus side, the 24-22 loss to Clemson on the road is about as acceptable as it gets, and there’s a chance that might look better and better as the year goes on. If the Tigers win the ACC title – especially if they’re unbeaten – then Notre Dame’s tight road loss almost doesn’t count. The Texas and Navy wins will look stronger in a few weeks, beating USC is beating USC, and now, the rest of the schedule is good enough that winning out really would mean something. Beating an undefeated Temple at home on Halloween would be a great win, as would beating Pitt – currently just with one loss – at Pitt. Throw in the showdown at the end against a rolling Stanford team, and yeah, 11-1 – especially considering four of the last five games are away from South Bend – is probably good enough.
USC
It’s the impossible argument, but try this out. The loss to Stanford appears more acceptable now, and the Washington loss can be explained away by the Sarkisian factor. Losing at Notre Dame in a firefight is hardly anything to get mad at, but it’s still a loss. Fortunately, the rest of the schedule is relatively nasty with Utah, at Cal, Arizona, at Oregon, and UCLA, to go along with a trip to Colorado. The two Pac-12 losses came to teams from the North, so if USC wins out, it wins the South as long as Utah loses one other game. At 9-3, if it gets its revenge and beats Stanford in the Pac-12 championship, all of a sudden the narrative changes. USC is on a roll, it figure out what it’s doing with its new coach, this is the real USC, etc. The playoff committee will go by resume, but it’ll also go by who the best teams are at the end of the season – hello 2014 Ohio State. At the very least, if USC wins out, it’ll be a massive topic for discussion.
Michigan is still alive, too
Could Michigan State lose at Nebraska? With the flaky way the Spartans have been playing so far, absolutely. Could they also lose against Ohio State? Of course. Could they sleepwalk and get tagged by the Indiana offense on the wrong day? Maybe. There’s a chance they could lose two games and open things back up for Michigan, who has at Minnesota, Rutgers, at Indiana, at Penn State and, of course, Ohio State left to play. The Wolverines need two MSU losses to get to the Big Ten title game, but if that somehow happens, and they go 10-2 with Utah and the dropsy in the Big House two of the most acceptable losses possible, if they get to the Big Ten championship game and beat an 11-1 or 12-0 Iowa, they’re almost certainly going to be in.
Group of Five: Is there a chance?
It’s going to be next to impossible for Memphis, Temple or Houston to get into the playoff, even at 13-0, but it’ll be worth a major discussion if it happens. Could the ACC champ have one loss? Yeah, and the unbeaten American Athletic champ might be higher in the pecking order. There’s a terrific chance the Pac-12 champion has two losses, and the Big 12 could cannibalize itself in a brutal November. With Memphis beating Ole Miss, Temple beating Penn State – and with Notre Dame still on the slate – and Houston beating Louisville, there are some terrific wins to for a resurgent conference, will it be enough? It’ll take two big shockers among the Power 5 championships, and it would help in a big way if Notre Dame loses, too. At the very least, the American Athletic champ should have the New Year’s Six bowl slot sewn up.
[RELATED: Midseason Power Five Picks]
Based On What Happened So Far, RIGHT NOW, The CFP Four Would Be …
1. Utah. The resume gets better and better. There aren’t any flaws so far with the win over Arizona State only boosting the respect.
2. LSU. The overall body of work is still just okay – South Carolina and Auburn just aren’t that great – but beating Florida is the big piece to the puzzle right now.
3. Michigan State. It would be debatable, but the committee would look at the wins over Oregon and Michigan and give the Spartans the nod over Ohio State – for now.
4. Baylor. The Bears are destroying everyone, making up for the mediocre schedule by hanging 60 points on the board every time out. They ripped apart Texas Tech – TCU didn’t.
At The End Of The Fun, The CFP Will Be …
1. Ohio State/Michigan State winner. Don’t rule out the idea that Iowa goes 12-0 and pulls off the On Any Given Day shocker in the Big Ten championship.
2. Alabama. LSU is playing well, but if Alabama is on, forget about it.
3. Stanford. The brutish Cardinal is finding its groove. The O line is playing at a whole other level.
4. Baylor. It’ll lose along the way, but TCU and Oklahoma State will lose twice, and Oklahoma will lose once more. 11-1 will be good enough.
