Best Bet: Jose Berrios Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+100)

Down in Houston, Jose Berrios gets the start for the Blue Jays. Since last season Berrios is 5-7 with an ERA of 6.87 and 69 earned runs in 18 appearances on the road. He’s gone over 2.5 earned runs in both of his road starts this season — and it wasn’t even close (against the Royals and Angels he gave up a combined 12 earned runs).

The Astros are tied for 17th in runs per game scored in the first five innings at 2.56, so if they can get a little rally going we will see pay dirt. On top of that, Jose Abreu and Alex Bregman have had previous success against Berrios. Abreu in 55 plate appearances vs. Berrios is batting .291 with 16 hits, three home runs and two doubles, while Bregman is hitting .286 with four hits, one home run and two doubles in 14 plate appearances.

Best Bet: Yordan Alvarez Home Run (+260) / Double (+320) 

According to Batters-Box.com, Alvarez has the fourth-best matchup rating for the day. The Astros slugger has a great Matchup Hard Contact rate (45.4%) and Matchup Fly Ball rate (46.0%). While Alvarez is only 1-6 with a home run vs. Berrios, the numbers say today is a great day for the slugger to make some solid contact at the plate. Since they are tough to hit on, home run and double props are always a half-unit sprinkle — there’s no need to get seduced by the juice.