MLB DFS: Wednesday’s FanDuel Advice (9/11/19)

Yes, this is my first fantasy baseball article of the year. Why did I wait until the last month of the regular season to write it?

Because it’s better late than never!

I was inspired to start writing down my DFS thoughts after months of offering up my takes on Stadium’s Payoff Pitches. My co-hosts and I talk baseball every Wednesday at 5 p.m. ET on Twitch, so make sure to tune in and chat with us live.

During our show, we hit on MLB’s hottest topics, take live look-ins to in-progress games and share our daily fantasy picks.

Speaking of which, my picks in this article will focus on salaries and plays I like for FanDuel because it’s the site I’ve been using for years. If you play on DraftKings (or elsewhere) then these players will still hold some value, but might not be as effective as they would be on FanDuel.

Now, let’s get to the games!

Braves at Phillies, 7:00 p.m. ET

Dallas Keuchel (LHP) vs. Zach Eflin (RHP)

Keuchel has finally found some success, winning four-straight games while giving up just three earned runs. That being said, he hasn’t been racking up many Ks (19.1% strikeout rate during that span). His recent success is intriguing, but try to target pitchers with a better strikeout rate.

As for Eflin, I’d much rather stack hitters against him. Keep in mind that most of the damage done against him comes from left-handed hitters (.360 wOBA, 39.7% hard contact, 42.0% FB rate).

Phillies Hitters:

Because Keuchel gets a ton of ground balls, I’ve got some interest in the Phillies’ hitters. But because he’s been stout against lefties this season, you need to target right-handed hitters.

In an attempt to counter Keuchel’s high GB rate, aim for hitters with elevated FB rates — Rhys Hoskins (47.2%), Maikel Franco (41.5%) and Scott Kingery (40%) come to mind.

Hoskins is by far my favorite Phillie to target tonight because he has both the platoon advantage and the high FB rate. Throw in a .415 wOBA, 156 wRC+ and 52% hard contact rate vs. lefty pitching this season, and you’ve got a smart play.

Braves Hitters:

Since they are division rivals, the Braves hitters have familiarity with Eflin and some have found success against him.

Notable Braves vs. Eflin H/AB 2B HR RBI
Ronald Acuna Jr. 2/4 0 1 2
Ozzie Albies 2/6 0 1 3
Josh Donaldson 6/9 2 1 6
Adam Duvall 5/8 0 2 5
Dansby Swanson 2/4 1 1 2
Freddie Freeman 2/11 1 1 1

While these samples are largely small, it shows that a guy like Donaldson sees the ball well against Eflin. Regardless of the BvP history, the hitters I like the most include Freeman, Donaldson, and Acuna Jr. That’s because all three of them have .365+ wOBA, .223+ ISO and hard contact rates of at least 45% vs. RHP this season.

Dodgers at Orioles, 7:05 p.m. ET

Ross Stripling (RHP) vs. John Means (LHP)

Stripling will be making just his second start (third appearance) since coming off the IL. He’s likely to be on a pitch count, so even though it’s a great matchup I would avoid playing him in what will probably be a short outing.

Means is having a decent season, but much like Keuchel, he doesn’t strike out enough people to warrant consideration (19.1% strikeout rate this season) — especially against one of the best offenses in baseball.

Dodgers Hitters:

Means has been great against left-handed hitters this season, holding them to a .225 wOBA, so I would focus on LA’s right-handed hitters here.

Cody Bellinger is a great hitter against lefty pitching (.404 wOBA), so you can roll the dice at what should be a low-ownership-play since it’s a lefty vs. lefty matchup. Personally, the price tag is too high for me, but it’s definitely worth consideration in tournaments.

For right-handed hitters, Means is allowing just a .312 wOBA and 29.5% hard contact rate on the year, meaning the matchup isn’t ideal, but if the Dodgers get to him early, LA will feast on the Orioles’ bullpen.

That being said, I’d target the guys below.

vs. LHP This Season wOBA wRC+ Hard Contact %
AJ Pollock .394 148 44.6
David Freese .372 133 49.2
Chris Taylor .362 126 43.5

Orioles Hitters:

With Stripling likely to pitch just 3-5 innings, splits for Orioles hitters are less important, so target the best hitters on Baltimore’s roster. But remember that the Dodgers have one of the best bullpens in baseball, which is why I’ll be fading the Orioles hitters myself.

If for some reason you can’t stay away from the O’s, focus on Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander, Jonathan Villar, and Renato Nunez.

Cardinals at Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET

Dakota Hudson (RHP) vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP)

Since this game is at Coors Field we can pretty much ignore the option of playing the pitchers. The one thing that I will point out is that Hudson has a 65% ground ball rate vs. right-handed hitters this season, but because the Rockies are likely to start at least four lefties tonight, I can’t recommend playing him.

Hitters at Coors Field always get a huge price bump because their potential for raking goes way up. Due to pricing issues with those batters in Colorado, I’ll often fade the hitter-friendly Coors Field and try to take advantage of everyone else playing MLBers from that game.

Cardinals Hitters:

Senzatela definitely struggles more vs. left-handed hitters (.416 wOBA, 36.3% hard contact) than right-handed hitters (.338 wOBA, 38.5% hard contact), but St. Louis’ righties are capable of having success against him, as shown by the chart below.

vs. RHP This Season wOBA wRC+ Hard Contact %
Marcell Ozuna .360 124 49.6
Kolten Wong .339 111 35.6
Paul Goldschmidt .331 105 48.3
Dexter Fowler .330 105 38.7
Paul DeJong .330 105 43.3


Rockies Hitters:

Hudson fares much better vs. right-handed hitters (.286 wOBA, 36% hard contact) than left-handed hitters (.352 wOBA, 45.5% hard contact), so the lefty bats are more intriguing, but keep in mind that all hitters are in play since it is Coors Field we’re talking about.

vs. RHP This Season wOBA wRC+ Hard Contact %
Charlie Blackmon .393 128 39.9
David Dahl .360 107 36.1
Yonder Alonso .399 132 43.2


If you want to stack the Rockies and throw in some right-handed hitters, I’d stick with the big guns of Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado — but you’ll have to pay for them.

vs. RHP This Season wOBA wRC+ Hard Contact %
Nolan Arenado .372 115 43.2
Trevor Story .375 116 42.2


If you have any questions or comments, feel free to tweet them (and make sure to follow) @Payoff_Pitches. Don’t forget to join us every Wednesday at 5 p.m. ET on Twitch.


Get more familiar with Advanced Stats: wOBA, wRC+, Hard Contact, K Rate, GB and FB Rate