NBA Best Bets: Tuesday, December 27

The trend line is moving up, folks. After a slow start, the momentum is strongly in our favor.

I’m well rested after a nice Christmas and eighth night of Hanukkah, so let’s ride the wave into another positive week.

Layups: 2-Unit Plays
Two-Pointers: 1-Unit Plays
Three-Pointers: 0.75-Unit Plays
Half-Court Shot: 0.5-Unit Plays

Last Week: 3-1 (+1.85 units)
Season Record: 17-15-1 (-2.7 units)


Grizzlies 1H -4.5 vs. Suns (-110): After an embarrassing loss in San Fran on Christmas, it’s time for Memphis to come back with a vengeance. And why not back them at what they’ve been doing the best this season? The Grizz are 11-3-1 ATS in the first half at home this year and are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10. Memphis is a first-half machine, and coming off a rough, nationally-televised loss, they should bounce back well at home.


Pacers-Hawks Under 238.5 (-110): This is just too high as the Pacers have hit their last four unders in a row. And it’s not like these are two extremely fast-paced teams. Over their last five games, the Hawks sit outside the top 10 in pace, and the Pacers are 23rd. The Pacers shoot a lot of threes but haven’t been making them, sitting at 14th in three-point percentage despite shooting the fifth-most threes over their last five. Plus the Hawks are fourth in the NBA in opponent’s three-point percentage. There is a LOT that will have to go right for both teams to score this high, and since it’s gone up from 233, I think we are buying the under at a good spot.

Grizzlies 1Q Team Total Over 29.5 (-110): Apparently, I’m riding or dying with the Grizz tonight. The Suns are a decent first-quarter defensive team, but over their last three they’ve given up over 31 points in the first quarter on average. Memphis averages 30 points in the first quarter this season, which rises to 32 a game at home. Much like their first-half play, I like this bet as a bounce-back wager.


Mavericks -4.5 vs. Knicks (-110): *Play only if Jalen Brunson is ruled out* I will only play this if Brunson is ruled out for the Knicks because of how important he is to the team. When off the court, the Knicks’ offensive rating goes from 118 to 109. Meanwhile, the Mavs have slowly been hitting their stride. After a horrendous first half against the Lakers, Dallas showed what makes them so dangerous in the second half, hitting three after three to come back from being down 11. The offense can be lethal, so as long as Brunson is out for the Knicks, I’ll back Dallas.

LaMelo Ball Over 3.5 Threes (-125): Death, taxes, and LaMelo Ball chucking up threes. The man loves to shoot from downtown. He’s averaging about 11 threes attempted per game, and he’s hit four or more threes in his last seven games in a row since coming back from injury. The Warriors rank 17th in three-point percentage given up, and over their last five games, the team ranks 27th in opponent three-point percentage. All of this is a fancy way of saying LaMelo will shoot threes, he will shoot a lot of threes, and he will likely make at least four.