Kawhi Leonard will forever be my King for giving us a 2-0 night heading into the NBA All-Star Weekend.

Now that we’re in the final stretch of the regular season, let’s stick with the quality-over-quantity strategy that’s worked for us in 2023.

Categories:
Layups: 2-Unit Plays
Two-Pointers: 1-Unit Plays
Three-Pointers: 0.75-Unit Plays
Half-Court Shot: 0.5-Unit Plays

Last Week: 2-0 (+1.57 units)
Season Record: 32-23-1 (+3.36 units)

Layups

Mavericks 1Q -2.5 vs. Pacers (-115): Are you familiar with those combination Pizza Hut/Taco Bell restaurants? You know — the one that’s a beautiful marriage of our finest foods? Well, this bet is the Pizza Hut/Taco Bell of NBA wagers, as it just works.

Statistically speaking, the Pacers are the WORST first-quarter team in the NBA. They’re 30th in first-quarter scoring with a -4 margin (30th overall in first-quarter points per game). The Mavs, on the other hand, are in the top 10 in first-quarter scoring and outscore opponents by almost three points a game in the first frame at home.

Situationally, the Pacers are actually coming off a game where they won the first quarter, which is why I expect some regression. The Mavs just collapsed against the Lakers over the weekend and will likely want a hot start at home to quell any fears the fanbase may have. This is the perfect storm of stats and circumstances coming together, so let’s put some money on it.

Three-Pointers

Talen Horton-Tucker Under 17.5 Points (-125): This number just seems a bit too high. Horton-Tucker hasn’t hit this over in five games and has only hit it twice in 2023. Maybe with Jordan Clarkson being out, the oddsmakers see an increased role for him, but even when playing 30+ minutes, he normally gets in the mid-teens with his scoring. While the Spurs’ defense is truly awful, this line is expecting a top-tier game for Talen and the odds of that just don’t seem high.