Out of yesterday’s six games, three finished within two points of the closing spread. The market really knows what’s up right now in terms of full-game lines, so I’ll try to go in a slightly different direction today.

Categories:
Layups: 2-Unit Plays
Two-Pointers: 1-Unit Plays
Three-Pointers: 0.75-Unit Plays
Half-Court Shot: 0.5-Unit Plays

Last Week: 2-1 (+1.25 units)
Season Record: 20-20-1 (-5.4 units)

Two-Pointers

Jazz 1Q ML vs. Cavs (+115): My Stadium colleague Michael Kim says that Eastern Conference teams on a lengthy West Coast trip tend to struggle early in games played at Denver and Utah due to the combination of elevation and travel fatigue. Well, the Cavs are on their third leg of a six-game road trip and now face a Jazz team that’s back home after three games away. It’s a good spot for Utah, who holds a +1.7 scoring margin in the first quarter over their last three games.

Miami Heat 2Q ML vs. Thunder (-118): I’m sorry if you came here for non-degenerate bets, but like I said above, full-game lines in the NBA are tight right now, so we’ve gotta get creative. The Heat are fourth in the league with a second-quarter scoring margin of +1.7, and at home, it improves to +2.6. The Thunder are 19th with a second-quarter scoring margin of -0.9 and have really struggled on the road, losing second quarters by an average of 2.6 points away from OKC.

Plus, the Heat are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 second quarters, while the Thunder are 4-6. The numbers say Heat — and as we know — the numbers never lie, so we’re going with Miami in the second quarter at home.