Unlike Jack at the end of “Titanic,” we’ve been treading water for a while now. Another 1-1 week is leaving a feeling of ‘meh’ in the air.
We will change that today.
Fun matchups mean that the player prop market is ripe for the picking. We will not drown — again, unlike Jack — and we will find our lifeboat in the form of plus-money props.
Layups: 2-Unit Plays
Two-Pointers: 1-Unit Plays
Three-Pointers: 0.75-Unit Plays
Half-Court Shot: 0.5-Unit Plays
Last Week: 1-1 (-0.07 units)
Season Record: 34-25-1 (+2.03 units)
Knicks 1H -0.5 (-110): The Knicks have been a stellar first-half team this season. They lead the NBA in 1H ML wins and have been the league’s most profitable team in the first half ATS. They’re now on the tail end of their western road trip and face a Blazers team that is less than stellar in the first half, holding a 4-5-1 ATS record over their last ten. The Fighting Tom Thibodeaus also hold the best NET rating in the first half over the last ten games with a staggering 127.1 offensive rating. Even without Jalen Brunson, the Knicks should be good enough to hold court on the road against a bad Blazers team for a half.
Fred VanVleet Over 1.5 Steals (+105): I know this is a degenerate bet — but hear me out. FVV has hit this over in five games in a row and in eight of his last 10. Tonight, he’s back at home against a Nuggets team who he had two steals against eight days ago. Denver is the third-worst team in the NBA in turnovers per possession on the road with a staggering 15.1% TPP in games away from the Mile High City. At plus-money, we have to take a flier on this one.
P.J. Washington Over 2.5 Threes (+154): I really wish the number at over 1.5 threes was more favorable than -180 but instead we’ll up the odds and go with a lower-unit play at plus-money. Washington is averaging exactly 2.5 threes a game in his last ten, including three in his last game and four two games ago. Charlotte’s power forward now faces off against the Cavs, who, you guessed it, are the WORST team in the NBA at three-point defense against power forwards, giving up an average of 2.8 threes a game to the position. In his last five games, Washington has taken an average of six threes, so all we need is a 50% shooting night against the worst three-point defense against power forwards in the league.