NBA Best Bets: Tuesday, March 28

It’s possible I’m taking quality over quantity a little too seriously today, but with the uncertainty of injuries (plus extremely tight lines), I’ve only got one play that I like.

Oh well. Let’s go 1-0!

Layups: 2-Unit Plays
Two-Pointers: 1-Unit Plays
Three-Pointers: 0.75-Unit Plays
Half-Court Shot: 0.5-Unit Plays

Last Week: 2-1 (1.25 units)
Season Record: 37-28-1 (+2.47 units)


Hornets-Thunder Under 227.5 (-110)*: This is the betting equivalent of having an item of human’s clothing found on you in “Monsters, Inc.” There should be a bunch of guys in hazmat suits that break down your windows and take you away to be sanitized. It really is a gross wager.

Yet, a deeper dive shows this number might be a bit too high. Would you believe me if I said this was a game between two defensive juggernauts? Well, the Hornets have the fourth-best defensive rating in the league in March, while the Thunder have the seventh. This is actually a matchup of top-10 defenses!

On the road this month, there is no better defensive team than the Hornets. I’m as shocked as you are, and the number at 227.5 seems to indicate bad defense — but both these teams have been hitting under like crazy lately. The Thunder have gone below the number in six of their last 10, while the Hornets have in seven of their last 10. The market seemingly hasn’t caught up, so let’s take advantage while we still can.

*With the recent line movement due to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander being out, I would recommend not taking it lower than 227.