NBA Best Bets: Wednesday, January 12

In past articles, I’ve been high on fading guys and teams that have been doing well, and you know, that hasn’t worked out. So being the self-reflecting guy that I am (not to brag), I’m going in the opposite direction and riding teams and players that have been hot.

Let’s trust the trends and go for it.

Note: Ben will discuss all of his bets on the Sharp Lessons podcast that drops every Wednesday and Friday. Subscribe on Spotify and Apple for episodes and follow Stadium Bets on Twitter for more sports betting content.

Categories:
Layups: The bets I really like and feel the most confident in.
Two-Pointers: The bets I like a lot and feel fairly confident in.
Three-Pointers: The bets I like but don’t feel as confident in.
Half-Court Shot: A long underdog I like to win straight-up.

Record: 29-30-1 (-5.6 Units)

Layups

Mavs -2 vs. Knicks (-110): The Mavs have been on a roll, winning six straight games and covering in their last five. I think they can do the same thing tonight against the Knicks. New York has been playing better as of late, but the Mavs have just been blowing opponents out of the water, with an average winning margin of 18 points in the last three games.

Dallas has the potential to be one of the NBA’s best, but they’ve been inconsistent in recent seasons. This seems to be the stretch where they’re finally playing as their best selves, so let’s get on the train before the market realizes.

Two-Pointers

Kyle Kuzma Over 8.5 rebounds (-120): Love this spot for The Kuz (I just assume that’s his nickname). He’s coming off a bad rebounding performance with only five against the Thunder. But he’s capable of grabbing 10+ as we’ve seen over the past ten games as he’s averaging 11 rebounds. The Magic are also 23rd in the league in opponent rebounds per game. If this number was closer to 10, I might be more hesitant, but at 8.5 I think you’re getting good value, especially with Wendell Carter and Mo Bamba both out for the Magic.

Joel Embiid Over 31.5 points (-118): You know what they say about the process — we have to trust it. And Joel Embiid is the most process-iest person out there because he’s been on an absolute tear. 31 points in four straight games, and averaging 32.6 points in his last 10. Tonight, he faces the Hornets who are dead last in points given up to centers. Normally, I love to fade players in situations like this, but Embiid has been on a different planet scoring-wise, so we’ll stick with him and trust the aforementioned process.

Three-Pointers

Cavs +3 1H (-115): The Cavs have the BEST first-half ATS record on the road this season at 18-3. On top of that, the Jazz might be missing Joe Ingles again (he’s questionable as of this writing, so be on the lookout for news), and they’ve lost their last three in a row.

The Cavs also have the best first-half margin in the league, outscoring opponents by five points in the first half this year. I’m not sure if the Cavs win this game or even cover with the Jazz being back home after a long road trip, but I expect the Cavs to keep it competitive through two quarters.

Spurs-Rockets Under 231 (-110): The Rockets have recently been the league’s punching bag, with the team only having one win since Christmas. The Spurs, well, they’ve been up and down, winning some but really not scoring a ton of points. In their last three games, they’ve only averaged 96 points a game.

They obviously will score more against a terrible Rockets defense, but I’m not sure if both teams will be able to muster 232 points combined. Games the Spurs have played in have only gone over that number three times since Jan. 1, with two of those only going over because of overtime. We’ll cautiously ride the under here because neither team has really shown the ability to consistently score in high clips.