I hope everyone had a lovely New Year and a great time watching my guy DeMar DeRozan bury two teams on back-to-back nights at the buzzer.
That said, my record is positive, but the money is not. Let’s change that and start 2022 out with some wins, shall we?
Layups: The bets I really like and feel the most confident in.
Two-Pointers: The bets I like a lot and feel fairly confident in.
Three-Pointers: The bets I like but don’t feel as confident in.
Half-Court Shot: A notable underdog that I like.
Record: 28-26-1 (-1.57 Units)
Warriors -5 vs. Mavs (-110): I’ll be honest, seeing this line open at -4 and rise to -5.5 before going back down to -5 surprised me. The Mavs just seem overvalued here. Sure, they’ve won three in a row, but it was against the Kings, Thunder, and an inconsistent Nuggets team at home — not quite the opponents that strike fear into anyone.
Not having Kristaps Porzingis will also be a blow to a Dallas team that scores almost six fewer points when he’s not playing. The Warriors are coming off a hard game against the Heat where Steph Curry didn’t even make it to double digits and shot 1-10 from three. I expect a bounce-back game from Steph, and with that, a dominant win from one of the NBA’s best teams.
Saddiq Bey Over 28.5 Points/Rebounds (-106): The Pistons? Trash. Saddiq Bey? Not trash. The 22-year-old has been playing lights-out basketball the past few games, averaging 22 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assists a game while shooting 36% from three. He’s been getting a ton of minutes, too, staying in games for an AVERAGE of 38 minutes. Add in the fact that the Hornets are the worst in the NBA for opponent rebounds and have been giving up the most points of any team in the league, and Bey hitting the 29 mark with points and rebounds seems pretty feasible.
Wizards Team Total Over 118.5 vs. Rockets (-108): This is a classic Principle Play for me, because what are we if we don’t abide by our principles? I will bet over on the team total for any squad that plays Houston because the Rockets, simply, are the worst. They give up 115 points per game, and in their last three games have given up a staggering average of 125 points. Washington has recently scored well, averaging 117 points a game in its last three and 110 points a game at home. Let’s fade Houston’s defense.
76ers-Magic 1st-Half Under 109.5 (-110): The 76ers are an average team when it comes to scoring a ton of first-half points, but the Magic really struggle early. They are last in the NBA in points per first half with 48. In its last three games, Orlando is averaging an even worse 44 points in the first half (first-half unders have hit in seven of their last 10 games). The 76ers are also coming off a game where they shot 52% from the field and a staggering 42% from three. I expect a bit of a regression toward the mean and a slower first half from these teams.
Thunder-T-Wolves Under 217.5 (-110): I’ve been on the trend of betting Thunder unders recently, and it’s been quite profitable. The Thunder don’t have the firepower to overwhelm teams, but they’ve been good at keeping scores low and grinding the game out, as they’ve had the second-slowest pace in the league in the past week. Also, Minnesota scores less at home than on the road, so let’s ride the under here.
Steph Curry Over 5.5 Threes (+120): As mentioned above, Steph had a historically terrible shooting night in his last game, hitting only one out of 10 threes. That means I’m backing one of the best shooters to have a comeback game. He’s hit this mark in two of his last five games and has taken enough volume of threes to do it. The last time he hit one three-pointer in a game, he hit six in his next performance. Let’s hope history repeats itself here.