I’m currently writing this article while sitting inside a sportsbook in Las Vegas. The degeneracy vibes are high, and I’m hoping this sweet, sweet heavily-oxygenated casino air will give me a clear head for some winning picks.
The $25 beers are flowing, so we’re going heavy on first-half bets and three-point props. While everyone is spending their time on college basketball bets, let’s find an edge in the NBA.
Categories:
Layups: 2-Unit Plays
Two-Pointers: 1-Unit Plays
Three-Pointers: 0.75-Unit Plays
Half-Court Shot: 0.5-Unit Plays
Record: 55-47-2 (+1.97 Units)
Layups
Timberwolves -5.5 1H vs. Lakers (-110): FADE THE LAKERS. Go to your nearest mountain top and shout it for everyone to hear. The Lakers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games and 13-18 ATS on the road. Plus, the T-Wolves are ninth in the NBA in first-half scoring margin. This should be an easy start for Minnesota, and despite a relatively high number for a first half, they should be able to cover.
Nuggets -3.5 1H at Wizards (-110): The Nuggets are one of the better NBA teams in the first half on the road. They’re 22-12-1 ATS away from the Mile High City in the first half and now face a team that STRUGGLES to start games (11-22-1 are the Wizards ATS in the first half of home games).
This is only the second game of an East Coast road trip for Denver, so they shouldn’t be too fatigued. Plus, they’re rolling right now with the fifth-best record since the All-Star break. Let’s support my Large Adult Son (trademark pending) Nikola Jokic once again.
Two-Pointers
Mavs -2.5 at Nets (-110): The Mavs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven road games and are 22-12 ATS on the road this season. As for the Nets, they’re coming off a massive game with 150 points and a 60-point outing from Kyrie Irving. This game is in Brooklyn, though, so no Kyrie — and instead a tired Nets squad that’s going to be relying heavily on Kevin Durant to lead them. The Mavs have just been too solid as of late to not back them in this spot.
Utah Jazz Under 115.5 (-112): Since the return of Alex Caruso, the Bulls’ defense suddenly looks formidable! They held the Cavs to under 100 points, which was the first time they held an opponent under a hundred since Caruso’s last game before his injury. Then, they held the Kings under their team total of 116.5.
Might as well keep riding Chicago’s newfound defense and take the Jazz team total under. They’ve gone under this number three times in their last five games, and I believe in the “Alex Caruso Effect,” which I just made up (but is definitely real).
Three-Pointers
Kevin Huerter Over 2.5 threes (+125): I’m a bit shocked that this number is plus-money when Huerter has been jacking up a bunch of threes recently. He’s taken an average of 6.5 threes a game in March and has taken nine in each of his last two games.
His volume is clearly up, and now he goes against one of the worst three-point shooting defenses in the Charlotte Hornets. He’s a career 38% three-point shooter, so he should have a shot at hitting his over.
De’Aaron Fox Over 1.5 threes (-132): This is another guy who’s seen his three-point shot volume recently rise, as Fox has hit over this number in the last three games while shooting an average of over eight threes a game. The Bucks allow the most three-pointers made a game, so with Fox facing the worst three-point defense in the league, this number is worth the juice.
Trail Blazers +12.5 vs. Knicks (-110): The reason this is in this section is because it’s the Blazers. But according to Covers.com, Portland is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games while playing a team with a losing home record — AND New York is 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. This spread seems a wee-bit high for a Knicks team that hasn’t covered as a double-digit favorite this year.
