We’ve had early success these first two weeks, and if movies have taught me anything, it’s that the sequels are always better than the original, so it only goes up from here (I say that super confidently to hide my nervousness).
The time has come to bet on NBA totals. We’ve stayed away from them for the most part in the first two weeks, but now that the spreads are getting tighter, let’s take advantage. It’s been a weird season with low-scoring games and quality defense, but even then, I’m feeling those overs!
Note: Ben will discuss all of his bets on the Sharp Lessons podcast that drops every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Subscribe on Spotify and Apple for episodes and follow Stadium Bets on Twitter for more sports betting content.
Layups: The bets I really like and feel the most confident in.
Two-Pointers: The bets I like a lot and feel fairly confident in.
Three-Pointers: The bets I like but don’t feel as confident in.
Half-Court Shot: A long underdog I like to win straight-up.
Record ATS This Season: 8-3
Knicks-Pacers Over 215: Good offenses + bad defenses = decreasing total? I must be “The Giving Tree” at the end of the book because I’m stumped. The Knicks are the third-best scoring team in the league while the Pacers are 11th. The Knicks are also 20th in the league in points given up per game and the Pacers are 27th.
Watching this total from Tuesday to Wednesday, you would have seen it drop from 219 to 215. Caris LeVert and Malcolm Brogdon are both back for the Pacers, so maybe people expect some growing pains in this game, but the total dropping this much is too tempting to not bet.
Nuggets ML (-105) at Grizzlies: Much like Daniel Plainview in “There Will Be Blood” I’m going back to the same well. Instead of oil, though, it’s the Denver Nuggets. You see, I LOVE betting on this Nuggets team. They won us our first big underdog moneyline play, and they’re usually undervalued, despite being one of the toughest teams in the NBA.
The Nuggets won 63% of their games after losses last season — good for fourth in the NBA after a loss. They now play the Grizzlies, a team they already lost to on Monday. I just think they’re too good of a team to lose two straight games to the same exact team without any travel. I’ll take ‘em at these odds.
Warriors -1.5 1Q: It’s time for some degeneracy. The numbers are quite simple: The Warriors are the best first-quarter team in the league, scoring 33 points per game in the opening frame. As for the Hornets, they’re the worst first-quarter defensive team in the NBA, giving up 33 points per 1Q while only scoring 27. On top of that, the Hornets are 0-4 ATS on the road this season in the first quarter, while the Warriors are 3-0 ATS at home in the first quarter. This is simply a numbers play, so if this misses we can blame the invention of math.
Celtics-Magic Over 212: It’s dropped from 215 to 212, which makes a little sense since the Magic have had a few totals this season in the 205-206 range. And the Celtics have been, quite simply, poopy on offense (hopefully I’m allowed to say poopy on the internet). That being said, I love betting on a good team that’s been bad and also struggled with locker-room issues, as they often have an offensive explosion. Enter the Celtics.
After being absolutely embarrassed by the Bulls, I think this is their moment — they’re too good of a team to continue this nose dive. On the other side, the Magic have hit six of eight overs this season and are coming off a game where their offense looked promising. (Additional analysis for this pick comes from reader Jake Richards)
Hawks-Nets Under 220: Every single Nets game this season has gone under. All seven. And not only that, but the Hawks play with the third-slowest pace in the league and don’t have as high-powered of an offense as the market seems to think. Throw in the fact that the Hawks have hit the under in three of four away games this season and the under is looking really nice.
This number should be closer to 217, but for some reason it’s still around 220. I might wait for the full injury news for this game before placing my bet, but as long as the Nets keep playing in games where the total is 220 or more, I’ll keep hitting the under.
Atlanta Hawks (+160): This category has gone 2-0, so now there’s pressure to keep getting this right. I still haven’t set the parameters of what is considered a “long” underdog, so let’s just go with +160 for today. I simply can’t trust the Nets yet, and I really like the way the Hawks are playing. If John Collins is ruled out before this game, I obviously like the Hawks’ ML a bit less but that’s for future me to worry about. I hope you appreciated this ground-breaking analysis.