NBA Best Bets: Wednesday, October 27

Week 2 of the NBA season is here, and I’m feeling good after going 4-1 in my inaugural breakdown. And if I know anything about sports betting, it’s that after you’ve been hot, you just stay on a roll forever. So I’m excited to go 5-0 today…

If you missed the last article, here’s how I split up my selections:

Layups: The bets I really like and feel the most confident in.
Two-Pointers: The bets I like a lot and feel fairly confident in.
Three-Pointers: The bets I like but don’t feel as confident in.
Half-Court Shot: A long underdog I like to win straight-up.

If you’d like to express your displeasure with any bets or even suggest a pick of your own, I’m on Twitter @BenWittenstein. Maybe one of these weeks we can add a “Readers’ Picks” section. Who’s to say? The world is our oyster.

Note: Ben will discuss all of his bets on the Sharp Lessons podcast that drops every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Subscribe on Spotify and Apple for episodes and follow Stadium Bets on Twitter for more sports betting content.

Layups

Heat-Nets Under 217.5: Do you remember that game on “The Price Is Right” in which the contestant had to yell out, “That’s too much!” when they thought the price got too high? Seeing this number literally made me yell that exact phrase in my head. And before you wonder why I, a seemingly healthy person, would yell obscure “The Price Is Right” references in my head, let me say that I think the Nets’ offense continues to be overvalued in the market.

Most people would be shocked to hear that a team with Kevin Durant and James Harden ranks 21st in the NBA in offensive efficiency, but it’s the truth. They also have yet to play in a game where the over hit, and now they face one of the NBA’s best defensive teams AND one of the slowest in terms of pace of play. 217.5 just seems too high for this matchup where the betting market seemingly hasn’t caught up with reality.

Heat (+3.5) at Nets: The Heat get no respect. The Nets have looked like a mid-tier NBA team — AT BEST — this season, yet they’re a 3.5-point favorite over a Heat squad whose only loss came in overtime on the road? The Nets sit on a throne of lies. Their offense has been close to non-existent, and they’re playing a top-five NBA defense. If you’re bold, throw some money on the Heat ML, but Miami against the spread seems too good to pass up.

Two-Pointers

Kings (+7.5) at Suns: The Suns haven’t consistently shown that they’re good enough to lay this many points on a Kings team that has actually displayed some signs of life. Phoenix seems like it’s still trying to shake off a Finals hangover, while the Kings are hungry, thanks to a rejuvenated defensive effort led by rookie Davion Mitchell.

This is not a “meet the new boss, same as the old boss” situation with the Kings, as this Sacramento team has been able to keep games relatively close. Sure, they failed to cover the spread against the Warriors after leading in that game, but the Suns have been enough of an early-season mess that I think the Kings should be able to stay close through all four quarters of this one.

Three-Pointers

Grizzlies (+2) at Trail Blazers: Dame Lillard didn’t look right in his last game against the Clippers, and turnovers have been a massive issue; Portland had 30 (!!) against LA. Gross. I don’t expect them to be that bad against the Grizzlies, but this Memphis team has been 3-0 ATS this year and has the best offensive efficiency in the NBA. In fact, both Portland and Memphis are among the top five in the NBA in offense, which leads me to my next pick…

Grizzlies-Blazers Over 234: It’s a high number, but these are two of the NBA’s best offenses and two of the NBA’s worst defenses playing each other. Plus, with the Blazers coming off a horrid performance against the Clippers, I really like this spot for them to go off scoring-wise. The over just seems like the obvious play here due to the offensive firepower on both teams.

Half-Court Shot

I have no official play here this week. Remember that we won with the Denver ML last week, so I want to bask in that hit a little bit longer. Truthfully, I just don’t love any of tonight’s sizable underdogs — but if I had a lean on any of them, it would be the Wizards at +155 vs. the Celtics. But again, it’s just a vibe, not an official play. That means you can’t yell at me online if Washington loses. Those are the rules.